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McNamara and data distortion







McNamara and data distortion

McNamara and data distortion 04/09/2004 04:01 PM

I recently saw The Fog of War, as one of my annual quota of about four movies that I will get to see at a movie theatre. An amazing film. I went into the movie prepared to be sympathetic to McNamara, and was impressed both by his thoughtfulness and by his arrogance. By the end of it, I was loathing McNamara all over again for his duplicity, with some of the same intensity as I felt during the Vietnam War. Remembering his obsession with numbers and with data, it also struck me that if, like him, you advertise your reliance on data gathered (or created) by other people for making your decisions, you are inviting people who have a stake in your decision to game it and muck with the data. That's how we got the inflated body counts. Not necessarily the smartest move on the part of a decision maker, especially one who so obviously thinks so highly of his own intelligence....




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McNamara and data distortion

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What McNamara Learned from Viet Nam


What McNamara Learned from Viet Nam 01/26/2004 03:00 PM
History may not repeat itself, but it does rhyme a lot. -- Mark Twain As much as it might have served my rhetorical purposes, I have been reluctant to draw parallels between our involvements in Viet Nam and Iraq. Most such comparisons seem invidious and over-wrought. Still, in a compelling January 24 column in the Toronto Globe and Mail, Doug Saunders cites a list of lessons that Robert McNamara said (in his 1995 book Retrospect) he had gleaned from his soul-searching autopsy of the American defeat in Viet Nam. I repeat them here for the purposes of discussion. Based on the course of the Iraqi invasion thus far, some of them seem chillingly familiar. The question arises, if we are repeating some or all of the same errors, how can we proceed from this point to a more positive result than we obtained in Southeast Asia. McNamara's List: We misjudged then -- and we have since -- the geopolitical intentions of our adversaries . . . and we exaggerated the dangers to the United States of their actions. We viewed the people and leaders of South Vietnam in terms of our own experience. . . . We totally misjudged the political forces within the country. We underestimated the power of nationalism to motivate a people to fight and die for their beliefs and values. Our judgments of friend and foe alike reflected our profound ignorance of the history, culture, and politics of the people in the area, and the personalities and habits of their leaders. We failed then -- and have since -- to recognize the limitations of modern, high-technology military equipment, forces and doctrine. . . . We failed as well to adapt our military tactics to the task of winning the hearts and minds of people from a totally different culture. We failed to draw Congress and the American people into a full and frank discussion and debate of the pros and cons of a large-scale military involvement . . . before we initiated the action. After the action got under way and unanticipated events forced us off our planned course . . . we did not fully explain what was happening and why we were doing what we did. We did not recognize that neither our people nor our leaders are omniscient. Our judgment of what is in another people's or country's best interest should be put to the test of open discussion in international forums. We do not have the God-given right to shape every nation in our image or as we choose. We did not hold to the principle that U.S. military action . . . should be carried out only in conjunction with multinational forces supported fully (and not merely cosmetically) by the international community. We failed to recognize that in international affairs, as in other aspects of life, there may be problems for which there are no immediate solutions. . . . At times, we may have to live with an imperfect, untidy world. Underlying many of these errors lay our failure to organize the top echelons of the executive branch to deal effectively with the extraordinarily complex range of political and military issues. By the way, Saunders says that, in a phone conversation with McNamara, the latter rendered the following opinion of the Iraqi invasion, "We're misusing our influence. It's just wrong what we're doing. It's morally wrong, it's politically wrong, it's economically wrong." If that is so, what do we do now?...

The Ajax reality distortion field


The Ajax reality distortion field 04/14/2005 03:33 PM

David Temkin raps it out.

WE spent five years trying to build a "Laszlo-like" rich media interface platform inside of Javascript and tehbrowser. Believe me this is one subject I know about.

I LOVE ODDpost and the Google Maps thingie and what people are doing with D HTML nowadays. Our weboutliner is in D HTML.

But lordy lordy lordy - do these folks have a reality distortion field up. David Temkin agrees. Or shall I say - I agree with him.

Ajax, Ajax, Ajax -- the buzzword has taken the Web world by storm. As it's been presented, A jax ("Asynchronous JavaScript + XML") is a new way of creating rich Internet applications by means of "standard, mature, and well-understood technologies" -- i.e., DHTML. This is the big draw of Ajax, and is the core of the hype.

It is indeed possible (and sometimes even desirable!) to create rich Internet applications using DHTML; I've been talking about this for some time. But the idea that DHTML technology is standard, mature and well-understood is accurate in only a theoretical way.

Until very recently, it was commonplace knowledge that DHTML doesn't work consistently across browsers, isn't maintainable, requires code forking, delivers limited fidelity and so on. And while perhaps this is still common knowledge among level-headed developers, somehow the introduction of the "Ajax" buzzword has induced Web-wide amnesia, and people are now under the illusion that creating full-scale applications in JavaScript is a simple proposition -- just throw in a little script here and there, and you have an app suitable for Web deployment. No new learning required, just a few clever hacks.

Welcome to the Ajax reality distrortion field.

This one post about replacing Flickr's Flash UI with a DHTML UI seems to sum up these contradictions rather concisely:

First, the developer, Neil Kandalgaonkar, writes that this DHTML version of the Flickr UI will work in more places that the Flash UI that Flickr uses:

"So what's wrong with Flickr's perfectly good Flash interface? Nothing. But maybe...you often use operating systems where Flash doesn't work, or doesn't work well."

But later in the post, Neil goes on to write:

"This is a hack that works in just one browser, Firefox. Developing cross-platform DHTML is much harder and more painful. Flash has a lot of advantages over DHTML; it's truly cross-platform, and can do much more special effects. If that works for Flickr, more power to them."

Well, that sounds rather different! Finally, when explaining why someone might be interested in what he's done, Neil writes:

"...you're a web developer and you are interested in this bleeding-edge Ajax stuff."

I'm confused. Isn't Ajax/DHTML "standard, mature, and well-understood"?

Just to be clear: I think what Neil has done is cool. But cool, bleeding edge, difficult and incompatible isn't what Ajax is supposed to be all about.

I sometimes think of how developers look at DHTML apps in terms of grading on a curve. A Laszlo-, Flash-, or Java-based RIA will typically receive all sorts of complaints from Web standards vigilantes about non-standard UI, accessibility issues, problems with bookmarking and deep linking, and incomptibility with search engine crawlers. But a similar app built using DHTML -- excuse me, "Ajax" -- elicits enthusiastic responses from the very same crowd like "Wow! Look at how cool this DHTML site is! Isn't that UI great?"

Of course a full Ajax/DHTML app has nearly identical issues with UI, accessibility, bookmarking, and search engines that other RIA technologies do; but they have the veneer of being "standard". And just to state the obvious, lest we forget: HTML as a standard for Web applications is in a precarious position, with the leading browser vendor actively working to define its own all-new markup language for networked applications, and other browser vendors creating a splinter group that diverges from the W3C to promote their own standards for Web applications.

Theoretically, DHTML is a standard. But to quote Yogi Berra: "In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is."

[David Temkin]


I couldn't have said it any better myself.


Boston.com / News / Nation / On the
stump, the art of distortion


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GrokA matches for McNamara and data distortion

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Football: Redknapp to join Saints


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Football: Sturrock leaves Saints


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Rugby L: Wigan edge Saints


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Football: Strachan to quit Saints


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Rugby: Saints thrash Salford


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MAD (MPEG Audio Decoder)


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5.5 oz. MPEG-4/Audio Portable From
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08/28/2004 01:05 PM

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HipFlics 1.2 adds MPEG-4 video, AAC
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Sound Audio Systems Announces Huge Sale
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InfoValue Joins MPEG Industry Forum in
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Mar. 27
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Industry's First Voice Talent Search
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SunSpots ezCAST, the advertising industry's first voice talent search engine reaches 3,000+ Audio & Video Clips. [PRWEB Apr 16, 2005]

McNamara and data distortion

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