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Another Column to Cringe About







Another Column to Cringe About

Another Column to Cringe About 01/17/2004 11:07 PM

Bob Cringely writes a follow-up column about his WhyFi idea, this time spelling out the impractical details more impractically: Cringely comes clean with the details of his WhyFi idea to spread free Wi-Fi hotspots nationwide. I ripped apart his previous column because it was long on bad ideas, short on execution strategies. He expects that every participant in the project who offers free Wi-Fi will eat the bandwidth bill in exchange for free equipment, which will be loaned not given to them. Only those providing hotspots get free access to the network. (Original business models of Joltage [dead], SOHOWireless [apparently dead], and Sputnik [now an enterprise software developer].) The free hotspots will apparently be part of a nationwide authentication network that will only allow members of this club to get in for free. Otherwise, users are charged for use. Cringely estimates the cost of a million hotspots at $150 million. He suggests someone underwrite this project to make a pile of money. So now I can tell you exactly why this idea doesn't work, especially now that he's dropped the whole part from his first column about requiring special firmware or MAC filtering. Hotspots cost more than $150 each. As I noted in my response to his first column, Cringely has magically eliminated the overhead costs for running a national network with a database of legitimate users. There's no dollars in here for running the backend, shipping out products, helping with installation (even by phone), dealing with customer/technical support ("my account doesn't work," "the hotspot is dead"). I would estimate given his plan that the cost per location for a million locations is about $300 per location for a single access point (which many won't be; see below), and about $20 to $50 per month for all of the associated support. More likely, the support costs are about $10 per month per free user on the network. It could cost more to support the paid users, and Cringely doesn't postulate a payment. Hotspots aren't a single access point and you can't put them just anywhere. If you exclude homes and coffeeshops and a few small retail establishments, locations that have value and lots of traffic control their spectrum and require expensive or at least complicated, multi-AP installations. A mall or an airport can prevent tenants or airlines from installing APs. This is an ongoing battle right now in airports. Arbitrary...




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Alan is a sensitive guy, and he understands, because, we're told, his father is a mountain and his mother is a washing machine. This is clearly the type of reproduction that will not be taught in your hygiene classes. So, you know, when one of his brothers, a set of nested Russian nesting dolls, shows up on his doorstep starving because the innermost doll has disappeared, you can imagine that the whole family relationship issue is a bit more complex than usual. Especially since brother Davey, whom Alan and his other siblings killed years ago, may have returned, bent on revenge.

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And, as always, the people and institutions currently holding the clout don't cede it willingly. Governments are clamping down on us in all kinds of ways. Incumbent business powerhouses are trying to hold back the tide as well, not just to keep their positions but also to thwart new innovation that might threaten them.

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A Final Newspaper Column, and My Thanks 01/02/2005 02:09 PM

(This is also my final Sunday column in the San Jose Mercury News.) Wow, what a ride. I moved to Silicon Valley a little over 10 years ago. I've been constantly amazed by what has happened here since then -- a furious rush of innovation and change. I'm not smart or wise enough to predict in any detail what will happen in the next decade. But I'm certain that, as always, it'll be interesting, because innovation and change are still the coins of this realm. It didn't take long to learn what made Silicon Valley so special. The combination of attributes was unequaled: the great research universities, an astonishing collection of talent, a pool of investors with enormous sums at their disposal and an ingrained culture of risk-taking. (The weather's nice, too.) The willingness -- no, eagerness -- to take risks has always been the valley's most special quality. In most places, business failure leaves an indelible career stain. Here, failure is often seen as an education, provided one fails the right way, which is to say not stupidly or sleazily. The rise and fall of Apple's fascinating but flawed Newton handheld computer, for example, helped spark the Palm Pilot, the true breakthrough in the genre. I won't forget the shiver of excitement I and others in a crowd of tech executives and journalists felt when we saw the first Palm on the 1996 Demo conference stage. We don't think of the Apple iPod or today's ever-smarter mobile phones as more modern handheld computers, but they are. They're also a result of the valley's relentless progress. The chips powering not just PCs but all kinds of everyday objects are making everything more intelligent. Even faster advances in storage mean that all these intelligent things are gaining memory. And the advent of faster data networks -- still retarded by cable and phone companies, unfortunately -- means that we're connecting it all. Those intelligent connections are bringing vast capabilities to the people at the edges of networks. The long-range importance of early Internet file-sharing was not the potential for copyright infringement. It was the heightened ability of everyday people to inform and help each other. Along the way, we went through the bubble years, a time when greed totally superseded all other principles and values. The prevailing Wall Street attitude, which also pervaded the valley, was sickening. When what's acceptable is what you can get away with, society has turned rancid. The bubble's deflation was hellish for those who became collateral damage. But it was useful in reminding us that even in such a fast-changing world, a few tried-and-true principles, economic and otherwise, still applied. In the past several years the valley has returned, in part, to useful roots. Innovation and building great companies matter as much to entrepreneurs as scoring big financially. And everywhere I look, I see innovation. But I also see competition where it didn't exist before. The rest of the world has learned some of the valley's lessons and can provide much of what we do here at a lower cost. This is the harsh dynamism of the modern world at work. The fact that other regions are rising economically is positive overall, even if it's not the best news locally. As noted, I'm not smart enough to tell you what's coming in any specific way. But we can look together at the trends and imagine some of what might be, if all goes well. We will see breathtaking leaps in medicine, environmental protection, and a variety of materials sciences and manufacturing processes. We can thank advances in biotechnology and the emerging field of nanotechnology. Information technology is at the heart of both as a tool, and it will remain so. The Internet and its progeny are still early in their development, meanwhile. The Net is nowhere near as universal as it will be when we enter an age of what some call ubiquitous computing, but the outlines of its value are obvious today. For example, all media will eventually move around the world in little digital packages, called packets, that are the basic units of tomorrow's communications. The importance of this -- in decimating old businesses while improving most people's lives -- has not been sufficiently appreciated. The risks are growing, too. When the ability to do great things spreads away from the center, so does the ability to do massively dangerous things. The power of one fanatic or small group to create incalculable damage -- assuming we don't do it simply by mistake -- should worry everyone. But we should not allow that concern to stifle progress. And, as always, the people and institutions currently holding the clout don't cede it willingly. Governments are clamping down on us in all kinds of ways. Incumbent business powerhouses are trying to hold back the tide as well, not just to keep their positions but also to thwart new innovation that might threaten them. These reactionary encroachments and retrenchments are not surprising. They always occur in times of swift change and challenge. In the end, they are almost always unsuccessful, because progress ultimately finds a way around barriers, and because people challenge the reactionaries. But we need to keep the pressure up, as citizens and people who want the freedom to use these new tools and live in liberty. The stakes are high, and liberty takes work. This is my last column for the Mercury News. Starting tomorrow, I'll embark on a new adventure, a project to help bring online grass-roots journalism to more people and communities. I leave a job that has been a constant challenge in the best sense, often an outright joy. I leave colleagues whom I like and admire. But this opportunity, to help create something truly new and valuable, is too exciting not to try. During these past 10 years I've enjoyed a privileged, front-row seat -- not on a roller coaster, even if it occasionally seemed that way, but a vehicle of exploration. I'm grateful for the opportunity to have taken this fantastic ride. Mostly, though, I'm grateful to you. This has always been about you, the people who read what I write. I've tried to be on your side. Even when you've disagreed with me, you've been on my side in a vital way. You've challenged me to think deeply about technology and the larger issues we must all ponder and deal with in this complex era. You've always known more than I do, and I'm fortunate that you haven't been shy about telling me. Our conversation -- which I hope we'll continue as my new project gets under way -- has been a constant source of inspiration. If it's meant something to you, that pleases me more than I can say. Thank you all.


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Ebook column that gets it all wrong


Ebook column that gets it all wrong 07/29/2004 02:52 AM
Gizmodo has a new column called "Feature Creep," and they kicked it off with an editorial about the future of ebooks that is striking for its complete disregard for the actual marketplace experiences with ebooks. It's full of hoary chestnuts about ebooks that have been emptily mouthed for 10 years ("Call it digital paper or electronic ink, it's the future of eBooks.") and aside from the occassional iPod comparison, there's hardly a paragraph in there that couldn't have been written in 1997 -- nor one that takes note of any of the events since then (well, to be fair, there's also a lot of puffery stuck in there to promote an ebook company called Vertical that probably didn't exist in 1997, but that's beside the point).

Take DRM. The author asserts on the one hand that DRM can work, and that it won't be so invasive that it turns customers (which the author insists on calling "consumers," an odious buzzword that invokes Gibson's description in Idoru, "...a vicious, lazy, profoundly ignorant, perpetually hungry organism craving the warm god-flesh of the anointed. Personally I like to imagine something the size of a baby hippo, the color of a week-old boiled potato, that lives by itself, in the dark, in a double-wide on the outskirts of Topeka. It's covered with eyes and it sweats constantly. The sweat runs into those eyes and makes them sting. It has no mouth, Laney, no genitals, and can only express its mute extremes of murderous rage and infantile desire by changing the channels on a universal remote. Or by voting in presidential elections.") off.

This despite the actual marketplace fact that all DRM becomes invasive (ask any copyright policy maker in a country that allows parallel importing how he feels about the "lightweight" region-coding DRM on DVDs that reverses the laws he was elected to enact).

This despite the actual marketplace fact that DRM is generally broken within a few days of engagement with the public, often by teenagers, grad students, or people with ready acccess to sophisticated DRM-cracking tools like Google and the sinister Shift key (for more on DRM, see my DRM talk)

But the author goes further and asserts that without DRM, there will be no market for entertainment product ever again ("If publishers stop wanting DRM, it's the end of popular creative arts. Not as we know them, but period.") despite the fact that the software industry got bigger when it abandoned DRM, and despite the fact that no new medium has ever succeeded by appealing to the virtues of the medium before it (there're very few ideas more goofy than the idea that people will start buying ebooks just as soon as they have fewer features and more restrictions, provided that the ebooks can be played back on special-purpose devices with sharp screens). He cites Sony as proof of this ("Sony may be nuts, but they're not that nuts."), despite the fact that Sony was forced out of the walkman market by its failure to deliver the DRM-free devices that its customers demanded. Yes, Sony is that nuts.

He doesn't even touch on the marketplace experience of every published writer who's tried giving away DRM-free ebooks -- me, Lessig, Jim Munroe, the Baen authors, Orson Scott Card -- universally, the experience is that we sell more books (Lessig's latest just went into its third hardcover printing, for chrissakes). This of course echoes the experiences from elsewhere: the movie studios' box office revenues appear to be increasing as a function of the amount of movies being shared on P2P nets and the only quantitative study of music downloading and music sales concluded that the effect was usually neegligible, rarely negative, and sometimes positive.

He does, however, take time out to snidely dismiss blanket licensing schemes -- like the ones that enable radio, live performance, covers, lending, coursepacks, jukeboxes, rentals, etc etc etc all over the world -- as a kind of pipe dream ("When the visionary of all visionaries develops a model for all-you-can-eat media consumption that provides for the artists to actually eat, perhaps I'll change my mind; until then, we are what we are, and we'll have to play nice within the confines of the present system.") despite the fact that these systems have been employed to universal good effect whenever new technology makes exclusion too costly to work effectively. It's like he's totally missed the fact that trillions of dollars go right into the pockets of creators and rights-holders through these schemes.

Bizarrely, he asserts that people might buy periodicals that expire off their players in 60 days -- despite the fact that every one of us has a friend or relative with a giant stack of old computer mags, or National Geographics, or colorful Wireds, sitting on a shelf.

Really, it's as though he sat down and called an ebook startup's PR guy, then reasoned out all of his conclusions a priori, without reference to any of the activity in the field.

I believe fiercely and passionately in ebooks -- that's why I give talks like this one -- but articles like this do nothing to advance the discussion. They're echoes of the dotcom snakeoil that dominated the ebook discussion five or ten years ago, and it's a disappointment to see this kind of editorial-in-defiance-of-facts on a hip net-zine like Gizmodo. Link

"PBS | I, Cringely . Archived Column"


"PBS | I, Cringely . Archived Column" 12/02/2003 12:28 AM

Reactions to the Whither Mono? column


Reactions to the Whither Mono? column 03/19/2003 10:26 PM
Jacques Surveyer has posted a thoughtful response to my Whither Mono? column. His item, entitled "Mono is eerily like the disease," says in part:
Take a gander at http://gru nge.cs.tu-berlin.de/~tolk/vmlanguages.html and the number of languages that use the Java JVM - about 3-4 times as many languages that use .NET. But the really insidious notion is that .NET is "language neutral". As Visual Basic and Cobol developers have learned to their dismay - adopting a language to conform to the CLI/CLR/.NET Libraries means a number of Frankenstein-like cut and add operations. In the case of VB it is so bad that Microsoft's own enginers started to call VB.NET Visual Fred because it is so different from its predecessor, VB6.

Adds Kevin Altis, in an email quoted with permission:
We do have examples of other languages running in the JVM. Jython in particular works great, I don't know of any "scripting language" that works well in the CLR, only the early proof-of-concepts which aren't viable for real work. VB.NET is basically C# light, so maybe only one language works in the CLR.
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