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Scientists Predict Widespread Extinction by Global Warming







Scientists Predict Widespread Extinction
by Global Warming

Scientists Predict Widespread Extinction
by Global Warming
01/08/2004 08:37 PM

Scientists have concluded that a warming climate will rival habitat destruction in prompting widespread extinctions in this century.




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Scientists Predict Widespread Extinction by Global Warming

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Global Warming (II) 08/27/2004 01:58 PM
Good comments, and mostly supportive though some skeptical along the lines of climate models are complex, climate science is uncertain, the experts may be wrong. All true; but reading the skeptical literature, I am reminded of the debates in the 1960s over the effects of cigarette smoking on human health....

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Scott Mackinney criticizes me in a comment on my blog about the damage I am causing to the environment with all of my air travel. I actually have been feeling a bit guilty about that and has been wondering where aviation is going to go from here.

On the one hand, in some areas, air travel is becoming cheaper and there are even people talking about small, low-cost private planes becoming more common.

A Feb 2000 GAO report warns that the damage to the environment from the emissions from aviation is particularly high because it is emitted into the upper atmosphere and that increased damage due to increases in travel can not be offset by technological advances. A report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a group of experts affiliated with the UN warned that the share of global warming caused by air traffic could increase from 3.5% in 1992 to 17% in 2050.

We clearly have a problem here. In an IHT article that I can not seem to find a link to, I read that one of the possibilities was to fly lower where there would be more turbulence, but less damage. I've also heard about the idea of levying high taxes for air travel. In any event, the air travel utopia story seems a bit flawed and if we would get up off our asses and really do something about global warming (which we must) one of the first hit probably should be our global aviation habits.

I WAS going to write about this before, but hadn't been able to gather enough sources. (Honest! ;-) ) I still don't think I have enough information to have an educated opinion. Any pointers to more resources would be greatly appreciated.


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Ulla by the sea

We had a week or more of summer in the first week of May this year, while last year at this time it was still snowing on occasion. It was weather that begged for a picnic and so a few of us obeyed.

The weather has snapped back to its more normal pattern, but I can't help but be concerned when it's early May and 80+F in Finland and I read articles like Arctic Temperatures Warming Rapidly Polar Explorer, where a polar explorer describes the extreme amount of melting in the polar ice cap. The Arctic ice  has thinned by 40% over the last 20 years so you have to wonder what the dramatic change in the ice over the past year will mean in terms of climate change. The Helsingin Sanomat carried a story yesterday, Finland's climate may become warmer by up to 5°C, coming in the next 50 years, which would make Finland warmer than most of Southern Europe. Not to be forgotten is the Pentagon report: A n Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and its Implications for United States National Security. The movie The Day After Tomorrow is being released later next week which will have the effect of making global warming seem like nothing more than an action movie that lasts 2 hours and has the typically happy American ending in spite of the premise for the movie being scary enough to prompt the Pentagon to study worst-case scenarios.

I understand why people don't want to believe in the idea of global warming or dramatic climate change as the consequences are dire, but no amount of optimisim can change the course that nature is on. There has been enough research into past climate changes to support the theory of polar melting initiating a dramatic climate change via gulf stream disruption. It doesn't even need to be dramatic as the very well written, The Little Ice Age: How Climate Made History, 1300-1850, describes. So, go enjoy the nice weather while it's here since all the evidence suggests that there may be few years remaining where we can.


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Ever since I'd posted my entry on aviation and global warming, I've been trying to figure out how to get to the bottom of this issue. The journalists told me that they just cited experts and the trick was to find good experts. I figured Sir Martin Rees would probably have an educated and balanced view.

Sir Martin Rees told me that he thought it was probably true that global warming was happening and that CO2 emissions contributed to it. He said that his main concern with global warming with the possibility that something non-linear would happen. In other words, his worry was not just the melting of the ice caps or the increased heat, but that this would cause something unpredictable and significant, such as a change in the circulation of the oceans.

He talked about some of the interesting mail he got. He said that he once got contacted by a cryogenic company which wanted his opinion on the idea of "the end of involuntary death" by freezing yourself before you die. When he replied that he'd rather be buried in a cemetery than a freezer in Calfornia, the company posted on their web site that "Rees is a deathist".

In a controversial book that he wrote called "Our Final Hour" he says that there is a 50/50 chance that our civilization will end this century. He mentioned that the original title of the book was "Our Final Century?" The British publishers took out the question mark and made it "Our Final Century". Then the US publishers change it to "Our Final Hour". ;-)

The dinner was off the record. "Nothing leaves this room. Just like Las Vegas." But I received permission from Sir Martin Rees to blog his comments. Sir Martin, if you see this and I've quoted you in error, please let me know. I don't have your email address.


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