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PICASSO, SVP







PICASSO,
SVP

PICASSO,
SVP
01/07/2004 01:35 PM

mockup
Last April Robin Good wrote an article on his blog called 'Side by Side', about the need for what I've called Simple Virtual Presence technology. One of the services of my new business Meeting of Minds will be the Personal Collaboration Technologies Suite:A set of intuitive desktop tools that allow front-line workers to see and hear each other and to work together without having to be in the same room. SVP is a critical component of this suite. The key is that they must be simple -- connecting must be as easy as making a phone call. And once connected, you need to be able to work with the other person as effectively as if you were in the same room. The same Simple Virtual Presence technology should enable you to dial into conferences you cannot attend in person.

Here's a rough spec for what Simple Virtual Presence technology should offer:

  1. One click dialing: A single click to the other person's or conference's address should provide full default multi-media connectivity, with no further 'configuration' needed. 'Who you see is who you get'.
  2. Connectivity should have three simultaneous 'viewpoints': sound and image of the other person him/herself, sound and image of what the other person is looking at/listening to, and a third 'backchannel' for sidebar communications. The default configuration might look like the image above. For SVP at a conference, the picture at left would be the person physically at the meeting you are 'channeling', the picture at right would be the speaker or his/her presentation material, and the 'backchannel' would be the sidebar discussions with other physical and virtual attendees of the conference.
  3. A pointer to show what you are specifically talking about.

The analogue between physical and virtual presence is simple and intuitive: Two visual and two audio channels replace your physical eyes and ears, and the pointer replaces your finger. The backchannel gives you multitasking capability that puts you in exactly the same position with SVP that you would have with physical presence, all with a single click.

All of the technology to do this exists now. It's just a matter of combining and simplifying it. And not much accommodation is needed at the other end either: A camera & mic on each laptop that can be swiveled to show either the user or what he/she is looking at, and a 'whiteboard' that shows the document the person at the other end is working on, or the document the presenter at the conference is talking about.

What's critical is resisting the temptation to add a lot of bells and whistles. A virtual meeting should be, must be, no more complicated than a physical one, if it's to be embraced by the business mainstream.

Robin calls this simple functionality 'Side by Side'. I think it's even a bit richer than that: I'd call it Side-by-Side & Face-to-Face. If that sounds a little larger than life, perhaps it is. So my suggested brand name for SVP technology? Why, Picasso, of course.
picasso




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THINK
GLOBAL, ACT LOCAL: PETER SINGER'S
ONE
WORLD


THINK
GLOBAL, ACT LOCAL: PETER SINGER'S
ONE
WORLD
04/23/2004 09:24 AM
one worldIf you're a regular reader of this blog, you probably know that I'm opposed to unregulated 'free' trade, very worried about the extraterritoriality of the WTO, NAFTA, Davos and other corporatist captives, strongly opposed to domestic corporations 'offshoring' jobs, using influence with the Bush regime and other right-wing governments to circumvent social and environmental laws and responsibilities, and a great believer in taking the pledge to buy local, and in community self-sufficiency.

At the same time, I'm a strong supporter of the UN and other multi-lateral NGOs, and I believe that we each have a responsibility for the well-being of all the people and creatures of this world. Some readers have said this view is inconsistent, and I wasn't quite sure how to respond to such charges. Fortunately, Peter Singer, in his recent book on global ethics, One World: The Ethics of Globalization, has come to my rescue. Singer sees no inconsistency between strong local autonomy, community, and self-sufficient economies on the one hand, and global responsibility on the other. The book is based on the Dwight Terry lectures at Yale in 2000, but has been updated to incorporate reflection on the events of 9/11 and the appalling Bush social, environmental and economic record.

I'll have more to say next week about Bush's fraudulent and despicable Earth Day media blitz, and the major media's shameless lack of critical evaluation of the utter nonsense that his propaganda machine has been churning out this week on the environment -- newspeak of Orwellian proportions. The first part of Singer's book deals with environmental responsibility, and his prescription for increasing it -- immediate ratification of Kyoto by the US and other holdout countries, and introduction of an emissions trading mechanism to make the realization of Kyoto feasible (subject to the need for some oversight on the disposition of the proceeds of such trading when it involves autocratic governments).

The second part of the book deals with the global economy, and Singer adroitly tears apart the Economist's (and other neocons') naive assertion that economic globalization somehow benefits both rich and poor countries. He then goes on to prescribe a substantial reform of the WTO and the GATT, which could actually lead to more equitable distribution of wealth and more efficient production of economic goods, while safeguarding human rights, labour and the environment. Unfortunately, the multi-national corporations and corporatists who hold sway in the WTO would never tolerate Singer's prescription, since it would entirely divert the benefits of economic globalization from their pockets to those of the world's poor.

The third part of the book deals with international law, and Singer lashes out at Bush for his unconscionable refusal to ratify the International Court of Justice, and for the UN's continued hesitancy to accept a duty (not a right) to intervene in situations of genocide and other humanitarian crises, even within a single nation. Singer is sanguine about the limitations and dangers of 'global government', but supports strengthening the UN to enable it to act as a 'protector of last resort', and including in its mandate the responsibility to supervise elections in all member nations.

The fourth and final part goes back to ethical principles and proposes that countries must, in this world where national boundaries no longer have any logistic meaning, set aside national interest and embrace, once and for all, global interest, impartially. That does not mean cultural homogenization, but imposes a responsibility for the reduction of inequality, both of economic resources and personal rights and freedoms.

Always the pragmatist, Singer concludes by worrying out loud about how the responsibility for a global ethic could be managed:

It is widely believed that a world government would be, at best, an unchecked bureaucratic behemoth that would make the bureaucracy of the EU look lean and efficient. At worst, it would become a global tyranny, unchecked and unchallengeable. These thoughts have to be taken seriously. How to prevent global bodies becoming either dangerous tyrannies or self-aggrandizing bureaucracies, and instead make them effective and responsive to the people whose lives they affect? It is a challenge that should not be beyond the best minds in the fields of political science and public administration.

I'd like to believe that this was possible, because if it isn't, we're in serious trouble. We cannot expect national governments to set aside parochial interests, especially when this entails accepting a responsibility that would, for the richer nations, inevitably lead to a drastic redistribution of wealth to poorer nations and hence a sudden and sharp reduction in, at least, economic living standards (if not necessarily well-being). But as John Ralston Saul has so eloquently argued, larger organizations and institutions, whether public or private, are almost always, and inherently, less efficient, less agile, more resistant to change, more hierarchic, and less transparent than smaller organizations. So the challenge is to achieve the best of both worlds, having organizations of global scope and authority and responsibility, but broken up into sufficiently small, autonomous and dynamic units that they are sensitive, resilient, responsible and responsive to the people and communities they serve. We can only hope that "the best minds in the fields of political science and public administration", wherever they are, are up to the task.

GLOBAL
WARMING AND THE CRIME OF DENIAL


GLOBAL
WARMING AND THE CRIME OF DENIAL
03/08/2004 11:08 PM
global warming chart
I have very limited patience with those who deny human responsibility for upper-atmosphere pollution and ozone depletion, or deny their impact on the geothermal dynamics of our planet, or the potentially disastrous consequences of the resultant climate instability on Earth's ecosystems. To me there is no intellectual difference between the Lomborgians who steadfastly refuse to accept the overwhelming evidence of human-caused global warming from scientists of unquestioned reputation, and the neo-Nazi holocaust denyers of Ernst Zundel's ilk. Unfortunately, the Lomborgians are heavily financed in their campaign of misinformation by Big Oil and other corporate oligopolies, who bear a disproportionate responsibility for global warming. Sooner or later they will, like Big Tobacco, be called to account financially and criminally for their negligent actions and fraudulent misrepresentations. In the meantime it has been expedient for George Bush, who received a huge proportion of his campaign moneys from these liars, to reward their thinly-disguised bribes by undoing almost all of the US environmental regulations and enforcement instituted by previous governments to try to limit atmospheric damage, and to exercise political muscle to prevent the ratification of the Kyoto Accord. By the time these regulatory reversals and delays are rectified, it may be too late for our planet.
global warming chart
global warming chart
global warming chart

Should you have to deal with these dangerous idiots, here is a short list of resources that you can call upon to understand and/or dispense with their ludicrous arguments quickly:

US NOAA synopsis of US scientists' consensus on the causes and consequences of global warming
Bill McKibben's article in the UK journal Granta explaining the psychology, and cynical political expediency, of denial
NASA's studies of urban microclimates and how they contribute to local climate change and instability
Union of Concerned Scientists' consensus on global warming and warning< /a> on the Bush regime's distortion of scientific research to forward its own political agenda
Fortune Magazine's article on the possibility and chilling implications of global warming producing sudden drastic climate shifts
Blogger Carpe Datum's brief but thorough explanation of the science behind global warming, and the reasoning behind scientists' connecting it to human activity and worrying about the risks of resultant instability (it includes the charts above)

Each of the above sources have links and references to further studies.

A
PRESCRIPTION FOR BUSINESS INNOVATION -
PART ONE


A
PRESCRIPTION FOR BUSINESS INNOVATION -
PART ONE
04/13/2004 02:25 PM
Four years ago I wrote a well-received paper entitled A Prescription for Business Innovation: Creating Technologies that Solve Basic Human Needs. I've updated it, broken it into three manageable pieces, and present the first part below. The remaining parts will follow on successive Tuesdays.

Introduction:  Why I'm Here

My modest objective in this presentation is first, to tell you some new, interesting and useful things about innovation, and, second, to persuade you that innovation is the most important determinant of every business' success, and perhaps even the quality of our lives. I want to convince you that in your business, whether it employs one person or one million, innovation is probably the solution to whatever is currently keeping you awake at night -- whether that be sales growth, cost control, customer satisfaction, employee retention, or maximizing shareholder value.

And if you, like me, spend some of your sleepless hours worrying about things more altruistic than your personal and business success, I want to convince you that innovation is probably also the solution to most of the problems that have befallen our suffering planet, in part because past innovations have created many of these problems.

And finally, if I'm successful in this evangelical task, I want you to leave today not only with renewed hope about the future of your company and our world, but with some new tools to make innovation happen in your business.

I would like to ask you to listen to these ideas with an open mind, suspend briefly your disbelief, and give this your full attention. If this was that easy to explain, someone much smarter than I would have done it years ago.

One: Learning from our past: How Need Drives Innovation

The advent of a new millennium has recently given many business, political and economic thinkers pause to consider what will be, as most put it, the 'Next Big Thing':
  • A New Economy Forum sponsored by Credit Suisse First Boston attempted to develop a 'synthesis' of leading thinkers' innovation models that might answer that question.
  • Forward-thinking publications like Fast Company and Wired have presented alternative visions of the future from some extraordinary minds in many different disciplines.
  • And conferences of world political, social and business leaders like the Davos World Economic Forum try to grapple with the bigger questions of how the holders of power can make the world a better place, while helping out their particular stakeholders in the process.
The catch-phrases of these business-driven thought leadership events are not new: competitive advantage, sustainable development, the connected knowledge economy, globalization, convergence, digitization, moving at the speed of thought. What is new is that there are now three divergent models being used to predict our future, fighting for audience attention (the names assigned to them are mine):
  1. Acceleration Model: The future will be a continuation of the recent past, only much faster
  2. Chaos Model: The future will be utterly unlike the past, driven by radically new and discontinuous events
  3. Evolutionary Model: The future will be, like the past, a continuous series of mostly predictable changes
From the perspective of business innovation this matters because almost everyone agrees that the successful businesses of the future will be complex, adaptive, agile, proactive, and creative -- they will not wait for market demands to change them, but will instead continuously reinvent their companies, anticipate future demands, and make strategic, risky, value-creating investments and decisions, what John Kotter calls Leading Change. In order to do this -- to make intelligent decisions and investments before demand is articulated, to view risk-taking and the creation of future options for action as essential, not foolhardy -- requires at least some consensus about 'where the future is headed'. Selecting one of the above three theories about the future is an important start in doing so.

Technophiles who favour the Acceleration Model tend to be infatuated with artifacts of the last thirty years: more digital, faster, smaller, lighter. Advocates of the Chaos Model, on the other hand, believe there are no rules for our brave new world of the 21st century. Their advice for business and other leaders is to be opportunistic and think short-term.

I lean towards the Evolutionary Model. I believe that using an understanding of the past, with the right perspective, can help businesses anticipate the future with exceptional clarity and probability of success. There are two reasons I hold this belief, and they form the basis for much of the rest of this presentation:
  1. Technology is Not Evil: Technology was, is, and always will be, about improving the quality of human life (though it has had some disastrous, unintended consequences), and
  2. People Change Reluctantly: People change much more slowly than technology, and ultimately won't accept, adopt, or pay for any technology that they aren't yet ready for, or which doesn't fill a real human need.
The report of the 1999 Credit Suisse First Boston New Economy Forum draws together some very powerful innovation models, into a single synthesized model that can be used to explain how technologies have impacted society and civilization since it began about thirty millennia ago:

Fig 1a
 Figure One: How Fundamental Needs spawn Innovations & Technologies
(Adapted from Credit Suisse First Boston New Economy Forum 1999 Synthesis)

According to this model, innovations like crop cultivation, the printing press, and the harnessing of solar energy, have always arisen in response to an urgent human need -- overcoming the sudden food scarcity after the Ice Age, bringing literacy to the masses, and solving the energy crisis respectively in these three examples. Technologies are applications of these innovations. The intriguing organic-looking ovals for each technology are also from the Credit Suisse Synthesis, which proposes are technologies are best developed using the following process:

Fig.2a
 Figure Two: Development Process for Technologies
(from Credit Suisse First Boston New Economy Forum 1999 Synthesis)

Let's now take a look at this synthesis model in more detail, to test whether it represents the way in which historical innovations have occurred, and then what this might tell us about innovations of the future.

Two: Man's Earliest Innovations: A Brief History of Technology

The first humans to walk on our planet, according to most anthropologists, were not the mighty hunters most of us might picture. In fact we were particularly disadvantaged, lacking both keen senses and a hide adapted to changing climates and weather. As a result, early humans were scavengers, ignominiously surviving off the leftovers of creatures with better innate hunting 'equipment'. In the first scene of 2001: A Space Odyssey, Kubrick & Clarke hypothesize that a carrion bone was the first human tool. Marshall McLuhan explained in his book Understanding Media that this early human was using the bone, this very first tool or technology, as an extension of his hand, giving it strength, reach and durability his hand alone did not have. McLuhan argued that all technologies are extensions of the human body and the human senses, and it is these technologies that have allowed the poor, badly-pelted, sensory-deprived human species to buck Darwin's odds and survive.

So picture our poor shivering proto-human looking among the bones of a wolf's recent meal for new tools beside the greasy bone, and thinking, in true McLuhanesque and 20th century economics terms: 'If the bone as an extension of my hand helps me to compensate for my competitive disadvantage in the hunter-gatherer marketplace, why can I not use other tools similarly? Then, lacking the appropriate scientific training but still intoxicated over his first innovation, he or she comes across a dead wolf and considers the following applications of this technological insight:
  1. If I put the wolf's head on my head, will I gain the wolf's acute senses, wiles and powers? (Not that different from the thinking applied many centuries later by the Ford Motor Company in the naming of cars and design of hood ornaments after various fierce animals)
  2. If I eat the dead wolf, will I gain the wolf's acute senses, wiles and powers? (Many cultures still eat powdered horn and animal genitalia based on this 'logic')
  3. If I strap a live wolf to myself, will the wolf and I become one creature, with both the wolf's senses, wiles and powers and my brilliant and innovative mind?
Of course, the correct answer is (c), which, except for the use of a leash or harness instead of a tight strap, remains one of the most important technologies in our short human history: animal domestication. Interestingly, the development of a non-choking animal harness, and a stirrup for riding larger animals, took centuries, according to a review in the Economist of the last millennium's greatest inventions. What's more, it occurred first in China, possibly enabling their civilization to develop much more quickly than Western civilization, until, for reasons only hinted at in the Economist , China suddenly stopped developing new technologies in the 15th century.

Without animal domestication and crop cultivation, we as a species might well not have survived to come up with newer and more sophisticated innovations like the wheel, paper and the computer.

Three: Six Principles about the Innovation Process

The first humans used precisely the process shown in Figure Two to develop and 'commercialize' the technology applications of the innovations of animal domestication and crop cultivation. It is the same commercialization process taught in business schools today. However, the success of the process is only as good as the idea, the innovation, that lies at its front end. Business schools are actually very good at explaining the recipe, but they, and most educational and business institutions, are absolutely terrible at teaching people how to find the essential new ingredients -- the 'grey matter' at the left side of Figure Two, the ideas & innovations that make the recipe work. The problem isn't a scarcity of good ideas either -- it is the lack of rigour and investment in infrastructure to surface, capture, develop and qualify new ideas prior to commercialization.

Figure Two also recognizes that many innovations and technologies are derived from other innovations and technologies, and often come from applying an idea or a technology from one application domain, or from nature, to an unrelated application domain. The BBC/Discovery program Connections made this point very powerfully, and its author James Burke continues to develop both examples of such non-obvious connections, and exercises to help us learn to discover more -- in essence, to become more innovative. Burke's latest book explains how a problem with the irrigation of Italian gardens led to the invention of the carburetor, for example.

Furthermore, Figure Two acknowledges the importance of the story in the successful commercialization of innovations. It is hard to pick up a business book or attend a business conference these days without being lectured on the importance of story-telling, but the idea is neither new nor complicated: Stories convey the context for the application, they explain how it can be used in the user's or developer's day to day life. Knowledge transfer is an essential precondition to commercialization. The easiest way to transfer knowledge, i.e. to explain or persuade, is to do so in a way that lets the learner internalize what they are hearing i.e. to fit it into their own mental models of how things work. And the simplest way to enable internalization is by telling a story, be it a Utopia or Future State Vision, a parable with a built in lesson, or a simple recounting of processes and events that lets the learner relive the teacher's experience as if it were their own.

From all this we can derive six basic principles about the Innovation Process (again, the names given to them are mine), to add to the two espoused earlier about cultural resistance to innovation:
  1. Need Drives Innovation: Necessity is the mother of invention, and as the fundamental human needs listed in the top row of Figure One above illustrate, the important innovations and technologies of human history have addressed the greatest human needs of their age. Without an urgent human need, a burning platform, a Business Case, there will be no innovation, since the preconditions for it, as John Kotter explains in Leading Change, do not exist. An obvious corollary of this principle is:
  2. Innovation Starts with the Customer: If successful innovations must address an urgent human need, then the front-end of the innovation process should be situated at the point of contact with the humans expressing that need, i.e. the sales and customer service people in businesses, not the R&D laboratory or the marketing department. With some notable exceptions where the need for the innovation was only identified later, innovations coming from R&D tend to be solutions in search of problems, and those coming from Marketing tend to be solutions for which needs need to be artificially created through advertising.
  3. Innovation Drives Technology: The solutions developed by companies' products and services are all technologies that apply one or more innovations.This is equally true of pregnancy test kits, tax preparation software, satellite-and-computer-based learning courses, futures options, automobiles and corn (whether genetically modified or not). So-called 'competitive advantage' comes either from offerings that better satisfy human needs (faster, better, cheaper etc.), or from new technology applications of new innovations that render the old offerings obsolete i.e. 'reinvent' the market. But as much as business would like to turn the model on its head (develop the offering, then use technologies and marketing to create a need for it), real needs like the ones at the top of Figure One cannot be created. They can be recognized, and they can change as more fundamental needs are solved, but they cannot be created. Need drives Innovation and Innovation drives Technology.
  4. Innovations are Interconnected: Innovation is not a mystical creative process, explains Edward de Bono in Serious Creativity. It is a learnable, repeatable process. Great minds and great companies can learn to 'see the connections', provided they don't narrow their scan (across time and across different disciplines of business and thought) too much. Here's a great example of how broad scanning engenders innovation, an example which also shows how many innovations exist in nature awaiting our discovery, if we don't destroy them first:: Scientists have recently discovered that butterfly wings contain no pigment. They are covered by overlapping 'tiles' 50 times thinner than a human hair. Each tile contains multiple layers of cells, separated by air gaps. When the light bounces off the tiles, the layers reflect colors with an iridescent sheen. There is a whole industry of thin-film coatings, whose products are used in everything from spacecraft hulls to anti-counterfeiting devices on paper currency, that may be revolutionized by application of this innovative colouring technology.
  5. Stories Transfer Knowledge: If you want to teach, or if you want to set up a killer database that everyone will contribute to and use, make sure your subject-matter is stories. Distilling stories to 'lessons' destroys the essence of their value by disabling the learner's ability to internalize, digest, and learn from, the contextualized experience of the teacher.
  6. Innovation Requires Discipline & Patience: The strange fish-like organism pictured in Figure Two is the process by which almost all successful ideas are commercialized. It is a journey that, even for most great ideas, is rarely completed. It is essential to have the discipline, patience, and courage to follow this process rigorously.Without such rigour, a great idea can easily be buried by premature skepticism, unscientific criticism, dangerous complacency and fear of risk. The process works.
(Next Tuesday: Part Two: Innovation & Society, and The Structure & Culture of Innovative Organizations (with six additional Innovation Principles to add to the eight above); The Following Tuesday: Part Three: A 15-step Prescription for an Innovative Organization, with some examples.)

GICLEE, AND
THE INNOVATION AND ETHICS OF ART
REPRODUCTION


GICLEE, AND
THE INNOVATION AND ETHICS OF ART
REPRODUCTION
06/26/2004 11:20 AM
DLWinston
I love the work of photographer Dav id Lorenz Winston, so when I saw what looked to be an original oil painting by him entitled "Solitude", at an unbelievably low price, I couldn't believe my eyes. I was right not to -- it wasn't an oil, but a giclée print of a photograph on a textured gloss or surface-treated canvas, so it looked, at least to my untrained eye, like an original oil. It glimmers in the light and reflects light off the sides of the pigment as you move, just like hand-painted oil or acrylic. Giclée (invented by rocker Graham Nash) is like inkjet on steroids -- 12-colour hi-res inkjet copies produced one-off from a digital master. By contrast, most prints use lithography -- an upscale dot-matrix technology but with only four colours used and relatively poor resolution.  The combination of giclée and gloss/surface treated canvas is a great example of innovation, and I commend the studio, Northland Art Company, for using it. The photo above (excuse the warp -- my lousy photography) is taken from the giclée-on-canvas print; a plain print by Winston from his website is below. You can get an idea by comparing them of the richness and three-dimensionality that this ultra-high-resolution colour and stippling effect adds.

DLWinston2

paint closeupWinston's work looks almost surreal, as if it were photoshopped, but the giclée-on-canvas (close up sample at right) seems to restore its 'authenticity', by psychologically transforming it from a photo (a mechanical reproduction), to a painting (a man-made reproduction).

When a photographer doctors his shot, unless it's very clever and artistic we're inclined to call it fraud. But when an artist uses paint or watercolour to portray something in a distorted, exaggerated or surreal way, whether it's real or imagined, we call it art.

The distributor at Northland said the process can double the walk-by sales of a print. And the process can make a poor art collector look like an affluent collector of originals. Now I'm wondering if it would be possible to take some of my 'flat' prints and either surface-treat them, and/or re-print them onto textured canvas, so they look like the original watercolours, oils or acrylics instead of just prints. Any artists tell me if that's possible? And what are the ethical issues of re-printing (for personal use only) or surface-treating a signed print -- does this open up the same issues for the art world that digital copying and file-sharing have produced for musicians and film-makers?

RED
HERRING'S TOP TEN TECH TRENDS FOR
2005


RED
HERRING'S TOP TEN TECH TRENDS FOR
2005
12/26/2004 02:31 PM
InnFig2a
Red Herring has published its list of the top ten technology trends to watch for 2005:
  1. Moore's Law yields to innovation: The long history of processor speed doubling every 18 months without changing price looks to be coming to an end, not because it can't be sustained, but because other innovations, like dual cores, can accomplish the same ends without having to deal with the growing problem of overheating that fast processors must contend with.
  2. VoIP makes distance irrelevant and increases the functionality of telephony: Although carrying sound over the Internet is most famous for killing phone companies that charge outrageous long-distance rates, and making all telephony flat-rate, it's also increasing the traditional PBX phone system's functionality, allowing people to dial others by clicking on their name instead of having to look up numbers, and providing 'presence awareness' (telling you before you 'dial' whether the person is available for your 'call').
  3. Explosion of authentication and automatic identification systems: Increased need for security and the cost of maintaining password lists is driving this change, but authentication and identification systems, if they can walk the line between convenience and breech of privacy, could also simplify and streamline the process by which we get permissioned for almost everything, allowing us to access both physical and intellectual property without jumping through hoops.
  4. Commercial gene therapy breakthroughs: RNA-interference therapies could soon be used to suppress messenger genes that cause diseases from AIDS to diabetes. But while the technical problems in making such therapies seem to be solved, the anti-innovation US patent laws remain a huge stumbling block, and patients may have to wait while greedy corporations sue each other to death or patent law reform enters the 21st century before the therapies can be brought to market.
  5. Micro fuel cells' last change to prove themselves real: Small fuel cells that recharge or even power small portable electronic devices off-the-grid have been promised for years, but technical and performance problems have delayed their coming to market. Next year may see the first few commercial releases, though they will be unfriendly to the environment (another 'disposable', and in need of constant refilling), and initially very expensive (as much as a dollar per hour's worth of fuel).
  6. Desktop search and desktop management heats up: Software vendors are finally realizing that the up-to-30% of people's work-time spent 'looking for information' is often spent looking on users' own hard drives, not on the Internet and Intranets. Google Desktop arrived with a splash this year, and many more desktop search tools are coming. But will vendors realize that search is just the tip of the Personal Content Management iceberg?
  7. Medical equipment comes 'of age': Baby boomers are fueling the demand for new medical equipment that offers therapy for patients without the use of drugs (expensive, invasive, prone to side-effects, and slow-to-market) or hands-on treatment (even more expensive, and temporary). But while self-administered treatment is exploding, baby boomers are even more enthused with self-diagnosis, doing their own on-line research and using new diagnostic kits to avoid the doctor's office entirely.
  8. Web services allow small companies to grow up fast: New web service companies are providing, in small, affordable packages, the capabilities that big corporations developed in-house or bought from hugely expensive systems integrators and ERP vendors.
  9. Asia and Europe extend their wireless lead over North America: Where 3G technologies dominate in Asian and European markets, North Americans still use their phones for voice calls and go online using cables or phone lines. Only 28% of Americans own laptops or cell phones with wireless data capability, and only a little over half of them have used that capability. The digital divide grows, on many fronts.
  10. PC/TV convergence and the battle for the living-room: The much-ballyhooed convergence of the PC and the TV, and promised ubiquity of 'smart' digital appliances everywhere hasn't really happened. Why? Because for most of us, it doesn't meet a need. Too many tech vendors are overly infatuated with their own technologies, and have no appreciation of the average consumer whose main consumer electronics purchases remain the traditional 'dumb' TV and telephone. 'Smart' devices will only succeed when the companies that make them smarten up and understand the mainstream customer and his/her needs and low tolerance for complexity.
I confess this list didn't exactly blow me away with the ingenuity of technology. What's missing from the list? I'm working on my own lists of Most Important Ideas of 2004 (in each of three areas: Blogs & Blogging, Business, and Politics & Economics), and I can use some help -- this year hasn't exactly been the promised banner year for innovation.

The innovation process at the top of this post is from Credit Suisse First Boston and is explained in more detail in my innovation paper.

LEADING-EDGE
BUSINESS IDEAS


LEADING-EDGE
BUSINESS IDEAS
02/11/2004 12:22 PM
gore-tex
A few interesting articles on innovation, knowledge and the future of business - worth a read:
  • Life in 2010 - Home and Work, by Patrick Dixon: A futurist who sees that new technologies are going to be smaller, more portable, more specialized, easier-to-use and more personal. Some excellent thinking here.
  • Webl ogs and Journalism (jump to pg 59 of this pdf), features 18 articles by bloggers and journalists, that I've mentioned before, but are worth a second read because of their broader implications for the use of weblogs and other personal content management and personal publishing apps in business.
  • WL Gore & Associates, per this case study by Cyndy Payne of the Foundation for Enterprise Development, is not only one of the world's most innovative companies (they invented waterproof, breathable, Gore-Tex fabric and a whole bunch of high-tech materials you've probably never heard of), but also are a prime example of a true partnership of equals (what they call a Non-Hierarchical Corporation and what I've called a New Collaborative Enterprise).

THE
SCRAPBOOKING PHENOMENON: BLOGGING +
PERMANENCE?


THE
SCRAPBOOKING PHENOMENON: BLOGGING +
PERMANENCE?
06/20/2004 12:36 PM
scrapbookingMy daughter spends much of her workday at the computer, but has no interest in blogging. Her hobby is scrapbooking, a hobby that now supports a $2.5 billion industry. A scrapbook is essentially a photo album on steroids, replete with souvenirs, commentary, and now, special thematic papers to make your collage a work of art. Special scissors are involved, as are many art media (paint, chalk, etc.). Stores catering to the hobby are springing up everywhere. People belong to scrapbooking circles (where you share your technical skills in scrapbooking, more than the actual scrapbooking content, with others), and are signing up for classes in scrapbooking and attending scrapbookng conferences. There is a Scrapbooking for Dummies book.

Last week, during a delightful dinner with fellow Canadian bloggers Seb Paquet and Gary Lawrence Murphy, we talked a little about this, and my dinner companions defined the hobby as Blogging + Permanence. Where a blog consists of nothing but bits and is totally etherial, a scrapbook is tangible. It has heft. It has presence.

It is also a social hobby, far less solitary than blogging. Mothers and daughters work on their scrapbooks together. And the subject matter is much more personal than most bloggers' writings and photos (livejournal bloggers excepted). This is perhaps because the privacy of scrapbooks allows this intimacy -- no fear of stalkers stumbling on your scrapbook the way they can on your blog. And scrapbookers are overwhelmingly female. They are also, photobloggers aside, of a more artistic bent than the vast majority of bloggers. The whole point of blogs was to make website composition simpler, so the writer could concentrate on the words. Scrapbooks are all about composition, and that composition is getting more sophisticated all the time. Some scrapbookers are even taking art classes so they can supplement their photos with portraits and other works of art. The hobby is even encroaching on genealogy, with much richer stories about, and embellished with artefacts of, one's ancestors than one finds on the usual 'bare' family tree.

I keep thinking there should be more overlap between the two hobbies, but while there are lots of websites on how to scrapbook, there are very few blogs devoted to scrapbooking (and those that are seem to have mostly been abandoned, presumably so their writers can pursue their favoured hobby instead). There is certainly a ready opportunity to bring the hobbies together: Scanning the pages of a scrapbook into a blog would not be difficult, and would create a backup copy of the scrapbook that could be given to others or shared with those far away. And if the blogging tools weren't so clumsy, they could allow us to print out our blogs and preserve them, with some of the related real-life scraps, the comments threads etc., in a hard copy archive that those (like my father) who say they find reading online too hard on the eyes could browse.

Why doesn't this happen? Probably because the content is different, and the intended audience is different. The audience for your scrapbook (besides yourself) is the person sitting beside you, commenting on each page, sharing your art in a very tactile way. The audience for your blog (besides yourself) is the vast, mostly unknown horde of readers who find your ideas interesting, your compositions provocative or inspiring, your information useful, but who, for the most part, won't miss what you've written next week when it disappears into the impenetrable blog archives. Blog posts are ephemeral, quick flashes, fireworks, left brain stuff. Scrapbook pages are memories, permanent vehicles to recall, richly, again and again, treasured memories. Drawing on the right side of the brain.

WHY DOES
SMALL BUSINESS VOTE CONSERVATIVE?


WHY DOES
SMALL BUSINESS VOTE CONSERVATIVE?
06/18/2004 01:09 PM
no left turnTime for another of life's imponderables. Both in Canada and the US, family farmers and small business people have, in recent years, consistently voted conservative, and show every intention of doing so again this year. This makes absolutely no sense: Most farm states and provinces are net recipients of government largesse (i.e. they receive in equalization payments and services more than they pay for, subsidized by the more urban and more liberal states and provinces). And even though in the past 20 years conservative governments have spent more than liberal governments, that money has largely gone to tax cuts for the very rich and defense spending, creating huge deficits that small farmers and small business people have to repay in taxes, and receive almost no benefit from.

I talked to a few local farmers and small business people to try to find out why they vote conservative. This small sample may not be representative, but what they told me was:
  • They perceive liberal governments to be based in, and focused on, the big cities. Even in the suburbs this anti-urban feeling is strong, and translates into an anti-liberal (rather than pro-conservative) vote.
  • They are very proud people, who like to think they are independent and don't need government help. So a liberal saying he's going to provide more assistance for small farmers and small businesspeople might actually be insulting them rather than wooing them. To those that have never lived through a depression (or learned its lessons), government handouts "encourage laziness". Small business still buys the 'free market' myth, whereas big business knows it's a myth and perpetrate it strictly as a power lever.
  • They really have no idea how government works, where the money goes, how they benefit from it, or how bigger corporations benefit much more than they do due to various government subsidies. The concept that tax cuts = service cuts, and that big corporations are at least as inefficient as big government, is lost on these guys. They don't understand that it's they who have to pay for that inefficiency, in inflated consumer prices and in taxes for big corporation handouts.
  • Quite aside from economics, they are socially conservative, as Lakoff defines the term. Homosexuality frightens them, liberated women frighten them, immigrants frighten them, government frightens them. They are terrified by crime (and, by extension, 'terrorism') and see it as a sign of moral decay, in black and white terms. They know in their hearts that you can't turn back the clock, but emotionally they want to, and that nostalgia and fear is a powerful weapon that Republicans and Conservatives are using to their advantage. Many people vote with their hearts, not with their heads, a lesson most liberals still haven't learned.
Yesterday the US House of Representatives passed a Republican bill that would give $140 billion in tax breaks to "businesspeople and farmers". Who benefits? "Companies with foreign corporate profits, timber companies, oil & gas drillers, movie studios, wine distributors, manufacturers of bows and arrows, and tobacco farmers". The rest of us, including small farmers and small businesspeople, will foot the bill. But I'll bet that if small farmers and small businesspeople are even aware of the bill, they won't be outraged and might even be more inclined to vote Republican because "it's pro-business". And the Democrats, whose Southern flank supported the bill because of the tobacco subsidy, are really in no position to shout foul. In a country with only two parties both feeding at the same trough, the rich & powerful win and everyone else loses.

In Canada, which has five parties to choose from, the 'first past the post' electoral system undoes the benefits of party pluralism. With the three small parties all socially liberal, Canadian liberals are forced to 'vote strategically', which means voting for the Liberal Party instead of their real choice, the NDP or the Green Party, to prevent the 30% of Canadian conservatives, who have only one voting choice, from stealing the election. We'll find out in ten days whether they did so or not.

Alas, both the US Republican and the Canadian Conservative parties are consistently and heavily propped up by small farmers and small businesspeople. Without that support, these parties would be history. It doesn't make any sense, but it's the reality that both right-wing parties are counting on for election success this year. It's a brilliant con.

THE DUTCH
SHOW HOW TO NURTURE
ENTREPRENEURSHIP


THE DUTCH
SHOW HOW TO NURTURE
ENTREPRENEURSHIP
07/04/2004 12:37 PM
.A new Dutch government program called SeniorStart "aims at stimulating successful entrepreneurship by older (45+) people who have lost or left their jobs or are re-entering the workforce after an extended period, by creating a dedicated (virtual) professionally-staffed National Service Centre and supporting the sharing of knowledge and experience between experienced senior entrepreneurs and new startups through regional networks".

The National Service Centre offers the following services.
  • Connecting new entrepreneurs with experienced entrepreneurs.
  • An online test and preparedness courses that assesses the capabilities and readiness of new entrepreneurs.
  • A computer program that steps entrepreneurs through the business planning process. If desired the resultant plan can be evaluated by professionals.
  • Expert financial, business planning, pension benefit securing and franchising advice.
Regional networks, staffed by 50-80 senior entrepreneurs each, will be set up initially in three of Holland's twelve provinces, and later expanded to all provinces. They will function as platforms for sharing knowledge and idea incubators for qualifying new entrepreneurs. Knowledge and ideas will be leveraged nationally by the Service Centre and its sponsors.

The project is financed by the Taskforce on Older People and Employment, the GAK (Industrial Insurance Administration Office), the Ministry of Economic Affairs and the WISE (Working Network and Information Centre for Senior Entrepreneurs) Foundation. It was co-developed by WISE and MKB, an umbrella group of over 500 trade organizations and business associations.

This is a wonderful initiative, one that deserves to be studied and emulated in other countries.

Now, what I'd really like to see is a network that connects these older, experienced aspiring entrepreneurs with the other group that desperately needs advice on how to set up a new business -- young people just graduating from school and unwilling to enter into a lifelong contract of wage slavery as menial employees to pay off their student loans -- and then advises both groups on how to set up and operate a successful entrepreneurial business.

WHAT'S WRONG
WITH FIRST-GENERATION SOCIAL
SOFTWARE


WHAT'S WRONG
WITH FIRST-GENERATION SOCIAL
SOFTWARE
02/10/2004 02:48 AM
networks
I've written recently about the future state of business, a world incorporating powerful, versatile social networking tools. And I've played with most of the first-generation social software and read volumes about how it will, or won't, work in business and ultimately affect our daily lives.

The concept is wonderful, and the technology is fun, but the tools developed so far suffer from three fatal flaws:
  1. They're built with a pre-designed, set content architecture, and centrally-stored content, instead of harvesting content that individual users already have stored, in different ways of their own choosing, on their own machines.
  2. They're being populated just-in-case, with all kinds of content that people with lots of time on their hands see fit to contribute, and no content from the very busy or technologically illiterate, rather than just-in-time, with content being accumulated only if and when there's a demand and need for it.
  3. They're badly over-engineered, ranging in complexity from challenging to intimidating, so they take a lot of time, energy and intelligence to understand and use properly, and hence drive most potential users away.
In this month's Darwin Magazine, social networking guru Stowe Boyd also laments the growing pains of many of the first-generation tools, and the absurdly high and premature expectations that people have of them. "My bet is that social networking services will resist standardization until they see the benefits of converging all sorts of private and public network information, and realize that no one company can create and manage all of it", he says. The heterogeneity of both content and context is producing specialized social tools that are excellent for certain focused purposes, but useless for others, and an aggregation of content -- filled-in forms, esoteric discussion threads and context-free 'knowledge objects' -- that is cumbersome and largely unreusable.

In an earlier post I stressed the importance of allowing each individual to maintain and organize their own content and their own networks their own way. At that time I said: "When you force people to adapt their mental models to a standard model (inevitably a complex one to accommodate a variety of specifications), a standard model that is dictated by the technology and its designers, you will get no usage, or at best reluctant, inefficient usage."

If I were start all over again, to design the second generation of social software, it would be transparent to the user, wouldn't require any submissions, wouldn't keep any content in any central location, and would be so simple to use that even people without computers would use it.

architectureThat may sound like a tall order, but it really isn't. It would be like building a house. Let's start with content, the foundation of the house. Rather than getting people to submit stuff, we need to help people to organize the personal information they already have, and then harvest it automatically. When I talk to people in the front lines of just about every business, from proprietorships to large companies, they confess their filing cabinets, the document folders on their hard drives, rolodexes and other personal collections of information are chaotic and impossible to find things in. They also say no one ever taught them how to organize these personal repositories so that content could be found easily. Everyone just assumed that the skill to do this comes naturally. So first order of business is personal content management. No rules, no standards. Just some simple tools that allow people to organize all the information and documents they have into some order so it can be readily found again when needed. Let a whole bunch of PCM tools loose on the market, and let them evolve as people learn what they need and what they don't and what organization makes sense to them as individuals. Weblogs would be a good source of ideas for the design of PCM tools, since essentially that's what blogs are.

The next floor of the house is the metadata. Software developers would work with the users of individuals' content other than the individual him/herself to ascertain how they might want to use the individual's newly-ordered content, and develop tools to harvest the relevant metadata to do that. This second layer of tools essentially reorganizes the individual's content, transparently, in ways that make it more useful to the individual's networks -- actual and potential friends, associates, customers, suppliers etc. These tools would spider the content and essentially 'fill in the forms' that those in each of the individual's networks might need to access the individual's information in the format they want it in. The PCM tools would allow people to specify which content could be seen and accessed by others with the appropriate 'permissions', and the metadata tools would repect these permissions. These metadata tools would be invisible to the individual user, and would work automatically in the background as the individual added, deleted, and changed the content using the PCM tools.

Still with me? Now comes the pièce de résistance. The third level of the house is the networking and connectivity tools, the ones that, analogous to the telephone switch, actually enable the identification of relationships, the making of connections, the transfer of information, and ultimately even collaboration and other more dynamic interactive applications of connectivity -- transactions. These applications harvest and mine the metadata, and have no content of their own. They operate on a just-in-time basis. These tools might include an Expertise Finder, a Connector, a Super Address Book, a Network Builder, a Publisher, and a Subscriber.

So for example, if I'm researching solar power for my new house, or looking for people to work with me on a Meeting of Minds business assignment, I could use the Expertise Finder tool to identify who I could and should talk to, what information each of those experts has in their personal content that is permissioned for me to look at, multiple contact information for each of those experts, and the cost, if any, of contacting the expert and/or accessing their personal content. A Connector tool would then enable one-click connection to the selected expert(s) regardless of medium selected -- telephony, instant or asynchronous messaging, Simple Virtual Presence, etc. The Connector tool, just like a telephone switch, would connect people within an organization, or between organizations, or between an individual and someone in an organization -- it wouldn't matter. So if I work for a bank and I need to find an expert in financial derivatives, it would work exactly as my personal solar power search did. I could then choose between 'found experts' within the bank and those outside. If I want to contact my father in Winnipeg, or the group I play poker with on Friday nights, I would use the Super Address Book instead of the Expertise Finder before using the Connector tool, but the process would be analogous and as simple and intuitive as looking in a rolodex or phone book. And if I wanted to build a new network of people interested in discussing New Collaborative Enterprises, or whether Kerry should pick Kucinich as a running mate, I might use the Network Builder tool, which would function exactly like the Expertise Finder except it would identify people with particular interests rather than particular expertise. Finally, I could use the Publisher tool to 'push' selected content out instead of waiting for people to come and get it, and a Subscriber tool, based on RSS, that puts out a 'standing order' to pull in and aggregate others' content that meets my specified criteria.

Just-in-time. Dead simple. Built on information I maintain, control and organize my way. Personal versus business information, internal or external, doesn't matter. A utility. An appliance.

You could even build additional commercial and transaction tools on top of this. Buy a 'smart' fridge/freezer that takes inventory of what you have, 'permission' it to feed your PCM tool, and your grocery supplier can automatically compute, fill and deliver your order with no intervention by you at all.

There are some important lessons to learn from the success and failure of previous technologies. A combination of simplicity-of-use, personalizability and adaptability has made tools like paper, books, pencils, paints, diaries, typewriters, newspapers, timepieces, telephones, radio & TV, personal calculators, CDs and DVDs ubiquitous and hugely popular. In contrast, the lack of these attributes in tools like the PC, musical instruments, the VCR, the fax machine, almost all software, PDAs and videoconferencing, has severely limited the market for these tools, and caused millions to curse their complexity.

I don't blame first-generation social software designers for making the three mistakes that already have detractors raising their eyebrows. We need to do lots of experiments to see what will work and what won't. There's no harm designing and playing with skylights and new types of shingles even before the foundation is ready to be poured. And as Stowe said, social software "will become the cornerstone of a revolution in IT", not to mention a revolution in how we connect, network, and organize and share information -- activities that comprise much of the fabric of our lives. We just need to remember: Simple, Personal, Decentralized, Just-in-time.

THE TEN MOST
UNDER-REPORTED HUMANITARIAN EVENTS OF
2003


THE TEN MOST
UNDER-REPORTED HUMANITARIAN EVENTS OF
2003
02/10/2004 02:48 AM
map
Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders) recently released its list of the ten most under-reported humanitarian events of 2003. The map above shows which countries these events occurred in. Although the MSF site is temporarily down, you can read the complete details of these stories here. The top 10 stories are:

  1. Tens of thousands seek refuge in Chad from wars in Sudan and Central African Republic
  2. Ongoing oppression of civilians, war and dislocation in Chechnya
  3. Tenth year of civil war in Burundi lowers life expectancy to 40, causes massive dislocation
  4. Three million displaced in Columbia, infrastructure destroyed, violence & disease rampant, 'drug war' ruins economy
  5. Daily terror and disease in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo pushes 20-year death toll past three million
  6. Annual death toll from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa reaches two million because $1 treatment is too expensive
  7. Twelve years of violence, displacement, flooding and drought make Somalia the world's most destitute country
  8. Millions of refugees fleeing starvation and terror in North Korea struggle in fear and deprivation in hostile China
  9. 'Free' trade agreements deprive millions of AIDS victims in Southern Africa and elsewhere of affordable treatment
  10. War, displacement and lack of medical care produces massive malnutrition in Ivory Coast and Liberia

Why aren't the media covering these stories? None of them is physically close to the West. None of them involves countries with resources of strategic importance to the West. Almost all of them are ongoing, so there is nothing 'new' to report each day. None of the people in these countries has resorted to terrorist attacks against the West to bring attention to our indifference to their plight. And all of them are intractible problems, and therefore issues that those of us in the West would rather not know about.

DAVE'S BLOG
CLEANUP PART ONE


DAVE'S BLOG
CLEANUP PART ONE
02/10/2004 02:48 AM
Well, thanks to readers much more tech-savvy than I am, I think I may be able to get Google to start picking up my posts again, and, by tightening up the code of my blogroll, also make the page load faster for those patient readers with dial-up access. So far I have moved the blogroll to the right hand column, so Google will not get bogged down in the blogroll code and give up before it gets to the actual posts. In the process I messed up the masthead, so I've adopted a simple one-piece masthead temporarily.

If this post works properly, I'll then make an additional change to my blogroll, stripping out the table HTML and replacing it with a simple list separated by line breaks. Next post will report on the results of that. Keep your fingers crossed for me.

AN
INTERACTIVE TABLE OF CONTENTS FOR
BLOGS


AN
INTERACTIVE TABLE OF CONTENTS FOR
BLOGS
05/12/2004 12:41 PM
Dave's Blog Taxonomy
As you may know, I've been maintaining (manually) detailed tables of contents of my blog posts (one per blog 'category') since I started. They're a bit clumsy, but they get a fair bit of traffic so I know people are using them. Right now they exist as six 'stories' and I thought it might be interesting to try to put them together into a single, interactive index. I'm competent in neither HTML nor Radio's 'outlining' function (I confess I don't even know how to use anchors properly -- the twisties below and the links in the graphic above don't work, and links below should really take you to the specific subcategory within the table of contents), so I can't make it pretty or functional, but you can get the idea of how it might work:

.BLOGS & BLOGGING:

.BUSINESS

.ARTS & SCIENCES

.ENVIRONMENTAL PHILOSOPHY

.POLITICS & ECONOMICS

.CREATIVE WORKS

My six categories have a total of 40 subcategories, of which five (Blogs in Business, Technology, Stories & Narrative, New Collaborative Enterprise, and Environmental & Social Economics & Law) overlap categories and hence appear under two categories each. The ten most popular subcategories (most linked, and most commented-on) are shown in bold. This taxonomy is essentially the same one I use for my filing cabinet tabs and for my My Documents subfolders, except that they omit the 'housekeeping' type tabs and subfolders that house my background papers, messages and private and personal records.

I am not offering this as any kind of framework for a 'universal' taxonomy. In fact, I've been adamant that any personal content management system needs to allow us to index our documents and messages any way we want, our way, at whatever level of granularity works best for each individual. Universal taxonomies just don't work. But if we think of a blog as the 'public area' of our personal content, the shareable part of our personal 'filing cabinet', I thought it might make an interesting case study in how we might best 'present' each individual's publicly-available 'stuff' for effective browsing by others.

I see the blog, and at a broader level the 'tabs' of our personal content management system, our 'filing cabinet', as nothing more than 'addresses' or destinations to send content to. So although Microsoft would have us believe that 'saving' a document or message, 'sending' a document or message to someone else, and 'publishing' a document or message to a blog or website, are three fundamentally different functions and applications, I see them as conceptually indistinguishable -- they're all actions that move content from one specific space to another. That's why I have proposed a single, intuitive Workspace Manipulation and Document Annotation tool to replace virtually every application users have on their PCs today, a tool that would finally make PCs accessible to the billions of technologically challenged among us. But I digress...

I can envision the Interactive Blog Table of Contents working in one of two ways:
  1. Map Layout: The table of contents would be displayed graphically, as in the top diagram above. Clicking on any of the 40 subcategory links would replace the map with a hotlinked list of posts in that subcategory -- showing title, date, author (if applicable) and a brief synopsis or abstract of each post.
  2. 'Outline' Layout: The content would be displayed, possibly in the blog sidebar, in 'outline' mode: Clicking on the 'Table of Contents' box would open up the list of the 40 subcategories, and then clicking on any of them would display (probably in a separate window)a hotlinked list of posts in that subcategory -- again, showing title, date, author (if applicable) and a brief synopsis or abstract of each post.
How useful would this be for you? If you're not one of those that browses my tables of contents, would this kind of functionality be useful on your own blog, even if only to help you find your own archived posts without having to use a hit-and-miss search bar? Could you envision using this tool more broadly as a means of indexing everything in your My Documents folder and Inbox, and perhaps even all the hard-copy stuff in your filing cabinet as well?

Ultimately, I can see the development of an invisible (to the user) 'metadata layer', which would take our preferred organization of our personal stuff and translate it into some universal standard, and then as needed into each reader's personal organization of his/her content, so that for example if Jon Husband wants to browse my publicly permissioned content, he won't see it organized as I have, above, but will instead see it automatically reorganized and relabelled using his personal taxonomy and nomenclature. I believe this 'metadata' layer development will be one of the most interesting and important technology challenges of this century.

In the meantime, if there's sufficient interest, I'll buckle down and learn enough HTML and Outlining to implement either solution (1) or (2) above for my blog.

A
PRESCRIPTION FOR BUSINESS INNOVATION
-PART TWO


A
PRESCRIPTION FOR BUSINESS INNOVATION
-PART TWO
04/20/2004 03:38 PM
Four years ago I wrote a well-received paper entitled A Prescription for Business Innovation: Creating Technologies that Solve Basic Human Needs. I've updated it, broken it into three manageable pieces, and present the second part below. The first part, which reviewed the history of human innovation and technology, is here and the third part will follow next Tuesday.

Four:  Innovation & Society: How Technologies Limit Freedom, Human Nature Confounds Innovation, and Consumer Decision Tools Doom Marketing

Innovation ProcessThose of you with HR backgrounds are probably wondering why I have not spoken about non-individual, community aspects of civilization and why and how these arose if the innovative individual is perfectly able to do it all him- or herself. These issues are relevant because of the role of teams, organizations and other social constructs in the process of innovation.

Let's take another look at our proto-human, now equipped with the six basic types of manually powered machine (lever, wheel, screw, pulley, plane, and wedge -- the latter in the form of flint-head arrows), plus other early innovations like controlled fire, animal domestication and crop cultivation. Like other creatures he's adopted the family unit as a social convention, but now he's experimenting with a more sophisticated social construct, the tribe. Question is, why? Is it Darwinian -- Did humans that banded together have a higher likelihood of survival than loners? Or is it purely social -- Do humans, like other creatures, have a basic need for social contact with others that goes beyond family? Whichever it is -- a survival need or a social need, it required innovations to make it work, innovations like a code of laws and behaviours to prevent and resolve disputes between individuals, and shared language.

At this point, in the view of some anthropologists, a tug-of-war began between our essential individual, autonomous nature and the perceived benefits of increasingly advanced, abstract and restrictive 'technologies' like division of labour, specialization, private and communal property, governments and other hierarchical social organizations, including the modern corporation.  All these social 'technologies' limit individuals' freedom, and much of our civilization has been about trying to find a delicate balance between individual 'rights' and the apparent benefits afforded by technologies that compromise them. This tug-of-war continues to play out today, in our suspicion of government, the existence of 'militias', libertarian movements, evolution of privacy laws, and struggles over property ownership. The battle is far from over, with slavery, one particularly extreme social construct favouring hierarchical efficiency over individual liberty, still practiced in many countries, and women, children and animals treated as property with no rights or freedoms whatsoever in many others.

This tension also plays out in the modern corporation, itself a feudal social construct which is neither egalitarian nor democratic. Corporate efficiencies have produced technologies that have massively improved material wealth and (most believe) quality of life in the few centuries since they were invented. But these advantages have come with a huge cost of personal freedom -- In many countries employees are virtual slaves of their employers, with no hope of realizing their full personal potential. In many companies promotion and remuneration have nothing to do with performance or competency.

Here are some of the consequences for innovation of this individual/collective tension, in today's companies:
  • Employees hoard rather than sharing knowledge, including knowledge that could yield innovation, to protect their position and rank in the company
  • Employees rarely volunteer new ideas, fearing ridicule, retribution, being ignored, or having credit for the idea stolen by their boss if it succeeds
  • Managers safely and instinctively squelch innovative 'crazy ideas' of subordinates
  • Managers, fearing the wrath of shareholders (today's 'absentee owners'), are risk averse, preferring to buy ideas once they have been successfully developed by others, over incubating the company's own ideas, even though the latter is cheaper and more effective
  • Employees compete for credit rather than sharing it
  • Employees, since they are rated on their individual performance, consider teamwork and collaborative activities less important than individual, solitary ones
  • Managers instinctively delegate tasks in a project to individuals rather than teams (since it's easier that way to place blame if something goes wrong), and individuals usually prefer being given individual rather than team assignments as well
If people are social by nature, why are corporations so unable to tap into this to leverage the power of teams to enhance innovation? The answer may be simple. In The Hidden Life of Dogs, author Elizabeth Marshall Thomas explains that most animals have an inherent desire to socialize with their peers, that seems totally unrelated to survival needs. In fact, dogs that wander from homes where they are well-fed and cared for appear to be looking for social contact with other dogs for its own sake, just as children like to hang out with others doing things they can do just as effectively alone. At the same time, both dogs and children often become extremely jealous, competitive, possessive and unsociable when these same fellow creatures impose on their personal 'territory': family, toys, food bowl, and members of the opposite sex.

Perhaps this is a universal trait that we need to consider when designing innovation programs: Everyone loves to engage in social activities that are fun, challenging and unthreatening, but when the social activity impinges on individual 'territory' or property, or on scarce resources, social and collaborative behaviour ceases and confrontational, competitive behaviour takes over.

But isn't competitive behaviour exactly what business thrives on? Doesn't the rush of adrenaline and testosterone in the quest for competitive advantage and 'winning' yield high productivity, sharpened customer focus, and more new ideas?

I would argue that competition is at best a neutral factor in engendering innovation, and may in fact be detrimental. Most of the books on teamwork, such as The Wisdom of Teams, stress two essential preconditions to effective team behaviour:
  • A specific, defined problem agreed to and shared by all team-members, and
  • A sense of urgency that imposes a short-term deadline that the team-members can work towards
There are other factors that affect a team's success, of course, such as the competencies and access to knowledge of the team members, and the effectiveness of the processes by which the team works. What is important here is that nowhere is a competitive threat, competitive challenge or competition of any kind considered essential to team effectiveness. Even in sports, the best teams focus on what they do well (the attributes of their team's excellence) and the achievement of specific objectives (like scoring points) rather than being distracted by competing with the other team, 'winning' and exploiting the other team's weaknesses. Good teams usually take solace in having played well even in a losing cause, and are alarmed when they play badly but still manage to win. In fact, a major competitive tactic in business is to force one's competitors to shift their focus to your agenda, to take their eye off their team's goal to instead compete with you.

Furthermore, many businesses are now reaching out to involve customers, alliance partners and even competitors in their problem-solving teams, because they help bring different points of view to the creative process, and because these external partners share both the defined problem and the sense of urgency with the internal team. In a world of accelerating change, no competitive advantage is sustainable -- innovations and new technologies can almost instantly reinvent industries, products, services, and offerings, and eliminate any competitive advantage the old ones may have had. Despite massive and sustained oligopolistic efforts to prevent it, customers are beginning to wrest absolute control of business direction and success from almost every industry's producers, management strategists and marketers, and now set the agenda and reward companies that respond to their needs and build new serving capability, not those that bash the competition, sue their customers, or create barriers to competitive offerings. The Bush regime's corporatist agenda has been only a temporary setback in this inexorable trend.

A side-note about branding: Many marketing people, lamenting over the passage of market control from producer to consumer, cite the increasing importance of branding as an organizational strategy, and of brand loyalty as a success factor. For this reason, they argue, aggressive, proactive marketing is not dead. They fail to appreciate that consumers, faced with the severe scarcity of (a) time to assess product alternatives and (b) objective comparative analysis like Consumer Reports, tend to use 'brand' as an unsatisfactory surrogate decision-making tool. If you as a consumer want to buy a car, or select a television program to watch, the ideal decision-making process would be:
  1. Find an analytical tool that identifies all of the relevant selection criteria, rates all of the available alternative products against these criteria, and allows you to identify and 'weight' the criteria that are important to you. This tool would 'remember' and start with the criteria and weightings you used the last time you made a similar decision.
  2. Use the tool to generate a 'first cut' list of alternatives ranked by your personal criteria, and show the sensitivity of the ranking to changes in your criteria weightings (some days you may like to watch a thought-provoking program, and on others you may prefer something light and funny; one year you may want a practical car, and the next something sportier).
  3. Find a tool that uses 'neural network' technology to draw upon your past choices for these and other products, correlate them against the choices of other people whom you trust or who have a history of making similar choices to yours, and generate a second list of alternatives, ranked by the collective consensus of your peer group. This tool would 'learn' from past choices and from your evaluations of them.
  4. Integrate the two lists and use subjective overrides to make your final selection.
In the case of a big-ticket selection like a car, you would probably invest significant time in making the final decision. In a small-ticket selection like a television program, the final decision could be greatly simplified or even fully automated, so your television would automatically go to the highest-ranked program in the two lists, and signal to you a 'score' showing the computed probability you will like it (since your ultimate decision may be not to watch anything).

Tools like these exist today (Consumer Reports is an example of the former; the Recommendations Lists of Amazon.com are an example of the latter), but they are not yet very robust or reliable. In their absence, brands and brand loyalty are the surrogates: 'I always buy Chrysler products' or 'I usually watch CSI on Thursday nights' is your brain's way of substituting brand for the more ideal tools noted above. Once these tools exist (and the Information Age is ripe for them), product brands will simply become community-identification brands ('I drive Chrysler products because they reflect who I am and I want others to see that and associate with me, or not, because of that identification'). At this point, brand community-association becomes merely one more selection criterion of the analytical tool. With the advent of the near-perfect consumer information these tools provide, traditional marketing has no remaining role, and the knowledge-driven transition of power from producer to consumer is complete.

Five: The Structure & Culture of Innovative Organizations: Business Gets Feminine and Consumers Seize Power from Producers

It is now accepted wisdom that the organization of the future must be flatter, more empowering, less hierarchical and more networked, in order to be sufficiently agile and responsive to the ever-more-powerful customer's needs. Much has been written about organizational 'ecology' and the ability of communities of practice to self-organize to solve identified common problems more quickly and effectively than command-and-control driven organizational structures. There is a growing awareness that self-organizing communities operate best when their leadership uses what are usually considered 'female' modes of operation rather than the traditional 'male' ones:
  • Decisions are made by democratic consensus rather than by fiat
  • Persuasion and change occurs by engaging decision-makers in thought processes and finding shared mental models, rather than the wielding of power and authority
  • Problem-solving teams select (and when necessary, change) their own leader(s) rather than having one imposed on them
  • Problem-solving teams form themselves, drawing on individuals' networks, and disband themselves when the problem has been solved, much the way the human body's immune system organizes itself to fight infection
  • Rather than formal permanent roles, positions, and 'up-or-out' career paths, individuals move laterally from project to project, wherever their skills and experiences are best suited, and often wear multiple hats on simultaneously-running projects, rather than having a single title
  • Rewards and remuneration are based on the depth of developed skills, experiences and networks, the things that have value to the organization in the future, rather then on past performance (which is rewarded with one-time bonuses at the completion of a project) or on seniority or title
  • 'Management' at the top is replaced by 'Improvisational Strategizing' at the centre of the organization
The real contention over this new organizational culture is whether it is efficient enough to justify a new organizational structure to support it, or whether instead some kind of balance between hierarchical and autonomous structures is needed. Is it empowering, or is it naïve, to believe that if an organization sets specific strategies and goals and then 'gets out of the way', the employees will effectively figure out the best way to achieve them? Can the tools, the infrastructure of technologies, knowledge-bases and equipment, needed to achieve organizational and project objectives, be left up to project teams to develop as needed and ad hoc, or must they be rationalized and inventoried and efficiently 'managed'? Who controls the purse-strings, and approves allocation of budgets and resources for each project -- can project teams really do this themselves or do these resources also need to be centrally 'managed'?

These issues are important to the future of business innovation. We must decide whether an organization saddled with the structures and controls of an old 'management' style can hope to be sufficiently agile, responsive to customers, creative and focused on new product development, to survive when that survival depends on strategic improvisation and continuous innovation.

There are two huge and contradictory trends occurring in organizational structure today: globalization and fragmentation. Globalization is occurring because small organizations cannot achieve the scale and resource capacity needed to be viable, and fragmentation, the spinning off and incubation of small, narrowly focused 'best of class' companies, is occurring because large organizations are too unwieldy, inefficient and inflexible to be innovative and respond to customers' rapidly evolving needs. So we have today the worst of both worlds: large, fat, unresponsive global companies and emaciated unscalable small ones. Furthermore, because of today's concentration of money and power in the hands of increasing global corporate giants, this system is in disequilibrium, with dysfunctional non value-added consequences such as these:
  • Once-innovative companies like Microsoft are being besieged by antitrust authorities
  • Companies acquire other companies simply to break them up and close them down
  • New start-ups are designed expressly to be bought out before they actually produce anything
  • Investment analysts claim that synergies from corporate acquisitions create new value, and that subsequent break-ups into more focused and specialized companies also create value
  • Large organizations are rewarded for cruelly exploiting weak social and environmental laws in their subsidiary companies' countries and simultaneously creating unemployment at home, when they 'offshore' production to those countries
The recent macro-economic review by Credit Suisse First Boston, echoing the prognostications voiced by many economists at recent economic summits, foresees the evolution of today's corporate structures into three new, prevailing types of enterprise, which could fix the above dysfunctions (since different economists use different names for these, I've used my own):
  1. Global Utilities: Large organizations that provide world-class large-scale communication, asset management and distribution infrastructure.
  2. Producers: Small organizations that assemble resources and 'build to spec' technologies, tools, products and offerings, for entrepreneurs, project teams and consumers.
  3. Innovators: Small organizations that study human problems and needs and create, discover and design solutions to them.
The Global Utilities would be either publicly owned or tightly regulated, operated on a not-for-profit basis. They would be measured on efficiency. The Producers and Innovators would be entrepreneurial partnerships, very project focused. Producers would be measured on agility, quality and customization, and Innovators on creativity, quality and quality-of-life improvement. All three types of enterprise would be measured additionally, of course, on customer satisfaction. None would be hierarchical, and few would spend an entire career with a single organization. I have argued elsewhere that, in fact, with today's technologies there is no need for any of us to have to work more than a few hours a week to provide a high level of well-being for everyone anyway -- the fact that we do work so unnecessarily hard and long is a function of the sustained myths of our modern Western culture and the extravagant and unsustainable wastefulness of our civilization.

Those with an entrepreneurial bent would form, or join, one or more Producer or Innovator enterprises over their working life. Those with a productivity bent would gravitate towards the Global Utilities. Many others would be self-employed, providing niche advisory services to all three types of enterprise.

You may think this is a very idealistic view of how 'organizations should be reorganized', but it is also a very logical one, and one that could easily be achieved today because of growing dissatisfaction with the dysfunctionality of today's organizational structures, and the ability, thanks to the Internet and other powerful new 'organizing' infrastructure technologies, to bring this 'reorganization of organizations' about. Only a poverty of imagination, opposition from elite vested interests, and the inequitable distribution of power and resources, all of them well within human capability to rectify, are preventing us from realizing this potentially liberating, perhaps even Earth-saving, reorganization. In fact, this customer-driven revolution is already happening, quickly, quietly, and non-violently, its first manifestation being what Shoshana Zuboff in her best-seller calls The Support Economy: Why Corporations Are Failing Individuals and The Next Episode of Capitalism.

The advent of a New Economy, with Innovators focused intently and exclusively on solving real human needs and problems (and not on the hyper-marketed, artificial incrementalism and 'copycat' and 'sequel' new product development that today's risk-averse oligopolies have our most creative minds fruitlessly working on) offers the potential of astounding acceleration of innovation and resolution of seemingly intractable human problems: pollution, over-population, unemployment, inequality, human and animal suffering, disease prevention, war and cruelty, biodegradation, mental illness. Some would say it's not a moment too soon.

What does all this mean for today's company looking to jump-start its innovation programs and processes, and today's individual looking to participate in making his or her own, or his or her employer's, enterprise more innovative? From the discussion above we can add six principles of innovation strategy to the eight principles developed earlier:
  1. Hierarchy and Autocracy are the Enemies of Innovation: There is a strong creative tension between individuals and the communities they elect to or are asked to be part of, caused by divergent needs, drivers, and behaviours. Each individual and each community needs its own space. Flat, small, responsive, democratic organizations are inherently more innovative.
  2. Innovation Needs an Urgent Problem: True innovation only occurs where there is consensus that there is an important problem to solve and a sense of urgency to solve it.
  3. Cooperation is Replacing Competition: Competition is now dysfunctional, a vestige of earlier times of resource scarcity, and cooperation is now essential to effective innovation.
  4. The Customer Rules: The customer is now king and needs only better decision making tools to become the sole driver of economic activity, rendering obsolete the need for marketing, branding, and other producer-driven mechanisms of influencing customer actions.
  5. Female Organizational Style is More Innovative Than Male: As shown in the table below, organizational structures, processes and behaviours more commonly associated with businesses run by women are gaining traction in the New Economy, and that bodes well for innovation.
  6. The Emerging New Economy Will Accelerate Innovation: Despite the current waves of globalization, corporatism and increased concentration of wealth and power, the Internet and other new technologies will inexorably break the strangle-hold of riak-averse oligopolies and unleash a new age of astonishing innovation.
Attribute
Female Organization
Male Organization
Organizational Structure
Networked
Hierarchical
Decision-Making Process
Consensual
Command-and-Control
Team Operation Process
Self-Selected, Self-Directed
Appointed, Managed
Leadership Selection Process
Self-Selected
Imposed
Leadership Style
Unassuming, Demonstrative, Responsive
Dictatorial, Self-Aggrandizing, Condescending
Employment Model
Project to Project
Up or Out
What Gets Rewarded
Potential Value of Skills, Experiences, Relationships
Past Performance
Who Makes Enterprise Decisions
Small, Improvisational 'Centre'
Disconnected 'Top'
Key Advantage
Flexible
Efficient

Attributes of 'Female' versus 'Male' Organization Structures
(Adapted from Imperato & Harari, 'Jumping the Curve')

So now we have fourteen principles to guide us in creating innovative organizations.

Next Tuesday: In the final part of this paper, a prescription that draws on these principles, that organizations can use to evolve themselves into innovative companies. It will also explain the new 8-step Innovation Process diagram at the top of this post.

DAVE SNOWDEN
ON KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT


DAVE SNOWDEN
ON KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT
05/11/2004 12:13 PM
PKM
One of my peers in the badly-named discipline of Knowledge Management is IBM's complexity guru, Dave Snowden. Last year Dave wrote a paper entitled Managi ng for Serendipity, which I really enjoyed. Dave appears to share my disdain for the context-free capture and 'codification' of people's business knowledge in massive 'knowledge bases' just in case someone else might be able to benefit from that knowledge sometime in the future (assuming they can find it).

Dave's paper explains how senseless this expensive exercise is. I have outlined in my Personal Knowledge Management articles why I think Knowledge Management energies would be much more effectively spent (1) developing social networking applications and competencies, and (2) developing personal content management a