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IT Investor's Journal: The big picture heading into '04







IT Investor's Journal: The big picture
heading into '04

IT Investor's Journal: The big picture
heading into '04
12/26/2003 07:44 AM

I’m of the opinion that the economy/fundamentals have peaked for now and we're headed lower, hard to say if it will be muted or something more pronounced; at the margin I think it will be relatively muted. Overall market valuation looks to me to be on the high side of "OK". Going forward, I think deep cyclicals like steel will continue to perform well (in particular I love the Australian giant, BHP) but some sectors are already fading, such as retail.




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IT Investor's Journal: The big picture heading into '04

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IT Investor's Journal: A close look at
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Red Hat, Inc., long a sales leader in commercial Linux distributions, has made some strategic changes in the last year and has decided to aim squarely at the enterprise server market while deemphasizing its relationship with small-time developers.

IT Investor's Journal: Why AMD is in
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IT Investor's Journal: Why AMD is in
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03/08/2004 11:28 PM
Our stock analyst, Melanie Hollands, believes that Advanced Micro Devices is one of the best names to own at this time in the semiconductor group, and that the major catalyst to propel the stock upward is continued OEM wins for its new 64-bit MPUs. Why? Read on ...

IT Investor's Journal: A close look at
WebMethods


IT Investor's Journal: A close look at
WebMethods
06/14/2004 08:34 AM
WebMethods. Man, what a fun time that was during the bubble! Great people, great technology, the gorillas were a million miles behind them. These days the company is holding its own, but my expectation is that Microsoft and IBM will continue their work on the standards committees that govern Web services and will eventually leapfrog WebMethods in terms of functionality. Once that happens, WebMethods will probably get squeezed out of the market place by existing WebMethods/IBM customers who are looking for a single-vendor solution to reduce complexity.

IT Investor's Journal: A close look at
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IT Investor's Journal: A close look at
Sun Microsystems
01/27/2004 09:15 AM
Our IT investment expert, Melanie Hollands, takes a no-nonsense, in-depth look at the current state of Sun Microsystems, corporate owner of the Java franchise and ostensible leader of the Java development community. More than a few people are concerned that after 22 years as an innovator and power player in enterprise IT, that Sun might erode into simply a niche player, dropping out of the same league as Microsoft and IBM in IT power and influence. What's your take on where the house of Solaris is headed? Read on for our writer's assessment ...

IT Investor's Journal: Is market due for
correction?


IT Investor's Journal: Is market due for
correction?
01/16/2004 11:32 AM
We could be due for a market correction. Stock newsletters in general are very bullish, and take a look at how the stocks have run from their 50-day moving averages -- no pullback in 10 months. News has not been a factor, the U.S. dollar looks like toast for a while, Japan is in our bonds -- I read some $9 billion yesterday, and the Yen still came back to 106.60. My hairdresser is starting to tout stocks (which is a sure sign of a top!).

IT Investor's Journal: Has Microsoft
peaked?


IT Investor's Journal: Has Microsoft
peaked?
07/06/2004 11:35 AM
Microsoft Corp.'s business ambitions have never wavered. Microsoft was founded in 1978, went public in 1987, and has since grown to become the world's largest technology company and one of the world's largest publicly traded companies. It has as an enormous cash balance of around $55 billion on its balance sheet and 93 percent share of the consumer software market. Investors typically regard MSFT stock as a no-risk investment with a stock price that will keep going up. However, that is not the case.

IT Investor's Journal: Why Sun stock
doesn't improve in value


IT Investor's Journal: Why Sun stock
doesn't improve in value
07/23/2004 11:13 AM
Sun Microsystems reported earnings after the bell on Tuesday, July 20. But overall, I'm not positive about an investment in SUNW at this time. And here's why.

IT Investor's Journal: What Microsoft
should do with all that cash


IT Investor's Journal: What Microsoft
should do with all that cash
07/12/2004 07:00 PM
Microsoft Corp.'s monopoly of operating systems and desktop software applications has resulted in the company throwing off around $75 billion in cash and accumulating $56 billion of cash on its balance sheet. Despite this track record for impressive cash generation, an investor who bought MSFT stock in early 2000 would find this investment worth less than half its original purchase price.

IT Investor's Journal: An analysis of
SCO Group


IT Investor's Journal: An analysis of
SCO Group
02/16/2004 09:14 AM
SCO Group, Inc. has been making more legal headlines than software news during the last year. Our business analyst, Melanie Hollands, take a detailed look at SCO's business acumen and evaluates its prospects in the stock market.

IT Investor's Journal : The January
Effect


IT Investor's Journal : The January
Effect
01/22/2004 09:01 AM
Today the subject is the "January effect." Looking at the actual total years' results since 1950, it appears if January is positive for the S&P, then the next year is anywhere from +7% to +45% (54 years). The exceptions have been 2001 and 1966, when both years were down years, even though the January of each year was up. On the other hand, if January has been negative, then for the most part, the entire year has also been negative. In 20 years, there have been only two exceptions, with 1982 and 1968 being positive years overall.

IT Investor's Journal: How to benchmark
semiconductor stocks


IT Investor's Journal: How to benchmark
semiconductor stocks
06/18/2004 04:15 PM
Investing in IT stocks of all kinds is not a business for the feint of heart. This holds especially true in the semiconductor stock world. Risks can be great, but so can the financial rewards. ITMJ stock analyst Melanie Hollands, who has been following this for more than a decade, offers some valuable inside information on this topic in an article you might want to bookmark if you hold investments in this sector. Read on at ITMJ ...

IT Investor's Journal: Micron, Westaim
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IT Investor's Journal: Micron, Westaim
-- and Saddam
12/22/2003 03:13 AM
Last Monday, we gapped up nicely in reaction to the news of Saddam Hussein's capture over the weekend, but then the market faded and we closed lower that day than we opened. There was some euphoria in the morning, but the smart trade was to sell the gap up. The thing is, Saddam wasn't leading the resistance over there. That said, the market recognized that he is strategically useful as a captive. He surely has information that might be embarrassing to the French, Russians, and others. So, there's some horse-trading to be done there, for sure. However, the equity and currency markets, in particular the U.S. dollar, indicated to me that the event was a non-starter. After the initial excitement, the market resumed selling equities and the U.S. dollar.

IT Investor's Journal: All about thinly
traded stocks


IT Investor's Journal: All about thinly
traded stocks
06/21/2004 05:22 PM
Thinly traded stocks are quite common in the IT sector. Know how and when to trade them, and you can ride a stock that triples, quadruples or more in a relatively short period of time. However, these stocks are deceptively difficult to trade and the downside of a mistraded position can be considerable. Read on at ITMJ ...

IT Investor's Journal: Why Openwave is
getting deep into Linux


IT Investor's Journal: Why Openwave is
getting deep into Linux
04/12/2004 02:16 PM
Melanie Hollands contends in a story about mobile-device middleware maker Openwave that over the next few years the WindowsCE mobile development folks might be surprised how quickly they are losing projects to Linux. Read on at ITMJ.

IT Investor's Journal: Jockeying behind
the scenes at SCO Group


IT Investor's Journal: Jockeying behind
the scenes at SCO Group
05/10/2004 11:53 AM
Very interesting developments at SCO/Royal Bank of Canada. On Friday, May 7, SCO Group announced that Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), one of SCO's primary investors, is cashing out. RBC currently holds 30,000 Series A-1 shares of SCO Group. It is converting one-third of that holding -- 10,000 Series A-1 shares -- to common stock and selling the balance (20,000 Series A-1 shares) to BayStar Capital.

IT Investor's Journal: Can Openwave
crest in market?


IT Investor's Journal: Can Openwave
crest in market?
12/30/2003 07:19 AM
Openwave is currently a turnaround story with takeout potential, but the company still has a tough road ahead. At present, Openwave is operating in the wrong network space. Most wireless deployment is low-cost Wi-Fi, whereas Openwave wants to be the 2G/3G application, provision, and infrastructure provider. However, few can afford to deploy the 2G/3G licenses they've got. Read on ...

IT Investor's Journal: Signs indicate
strong Q3 for Intel, AMD


IT Investor's Journal: Signs indicate
strong Q3 for Intel, AMD
06/03/2004 03:34 PM
Fundamentally, I like Intel Corp. (INTC) for a "buy and hold" for the next three months or so. Intel has strong product cycles ramping up that should hit inflection points in the third calendar quarter, right when the company's strongest quarter is. Consequently, I think the magnitude of upside could be substantial.

IT Investor's Journal: Why Novell needs
a breakout event


IT Investor's Journal: Why Novell needs
a breakout event
07/19/2004 01:24 PM
This column last discussed Novell in detail on Feb. 23, 2004. At the time, I thought the stock price could increase long term but wanted to hold off buying the stock in the intermediate term (a few months), since I thought it would languish for a while. My intermediate-term caution was largely due to three factors.

IT Investor's Journal: Some long-term
concerns about Microsoft


IT Investor's Journal: Some long-term
concerns about Microsoft
04/19/2004 11:05 AM
IT stock analyst Melanie Hollands has long-term concerns about Microsoft and its growth outlook, despite overwhelming share in several markets. Aside from slowing growth at the company and the competitive threat of Linux, her concerns include the delay of Longhorn and the transition leading up to its introduction. Read on at ITMJ.

IT Investor's Journal: Openwave embraces
Linux, Part 2


IT Investor's Journal: Openwave embraces
Linux, Part 2
04/26/2004 01:05 PM
IT stock analyst Melanie Hollands explains why Openwave, the 800-pound gorilla of the mobile services market, is investing substantial time and money in its Linux program with business partner MontaVista. Read on in ITMJ.

IT Investor's Journal: Oracle swallowing
PeopleSoft looks all but dead


IT Investor's Journal: Oracle swallowing
PeopleSoft looks all but dead
05/03/2004 12:13 PM
In February, antitrust lawyers at the U.S. Department of Justice (DoJ) came out against Oracle's acquisition of PeopleSoft. Antitrust division staff lawyers at the DoJ recommended that the Department file suit to block Oracle's acquisition of PeopleSoft. This indicated that Oracle would face a serious setback in its embattled bid for its rival. Staff recommendations on antitrust cases usually provide an early indication as to the direction in which the department is likely to lean in its final decision. My view continues to be that the Oracle/PeopleSoft deal gets squashed.

IT Investor's Journal: Behind the
infamous Oracle vs. PeopleSoft drama


IT Investor's Journal: Behind the
infamous Oracle vs. PeopleSoft drama
02/10/2004 10:47 PM
Larry Ellison is certainly determined not to give up on acquiring PeopleSoft. But with $26 per share, he may have finally hit the price. Oracle raised its bid to $26 per share, up 33% from its prior bid of $19.50 per share. Provided (stress provided) Oracle gets regulatory approval, then it's possible that the deal can get done here. Craig Conway, PeopleSoft's Chairman and CEO, has made his point and could be ready to give in. His golden parachute, coupled with the moving up of the shareholders' meeting, gives me the feel that something could be going on. Or maybe this is just more tactics in defense ... hard to say.

IT Investor's Journal: Some insight into
the behavior of tech stocks


IT Investor's Journal: Some insight into
the behavior of tech stocks
05/24/2004 05:28 PM
ITMJ columnist Melanie Hollands presents a candid overview of a detailed topic: analyzing IT stocks. In it, she introduces some thoughts about the factors that characterize investing and trading in the sector -- including the single most important factor of all: the psychology of buying and selling tech stocks. Read on at ITMJ ...

IT Investor's Journal: What latest
earnings results signify


IT Investor's Journal: What latest
earnings results signify
01/16/2004 11:32 AM
Is the weak dollar the real reason why Wall Street hasn't been impressed with improved IT earnings reports? The dollar has depreciated 25% or so against the Euro year-over-year. Analysts forecasting the fourth quarter already knew the dollar had fallen about 18% to 20% going into the fourth quarter. Read on for more details ...

IT Investor's Journal: Oracle pulls
weird move in PeopleSoft bid


IT Investor's Journal: Oracle pulls
weird move in PeopleSoft bid
05/17/2004 08:44 AM
This is just so weird. On Friday, May 14, Oracle lowered its bid for PeopleSoft to $21 per share from $26 per share. Admittedly, I'm not a elder statesperson and luckily have yet to develop any gray hair, but I've never heard of such a thing. (It's probably happened before, but this doesn't happen often, in any case.)

IT Investor's Journal: The impact of
having both simple and super voting
shares


IT Investor's Journal: The impact of
having both simple and super voting
shares
06/28/2004 11:39 AM
The two-part equity structure, with simple and super voting shares such as Google is planning with its forthcoming initial public offering, is quite common in technology companies, and particularly in media companies. Typically, the Class A shares are super voting and Class B shares are regular, or simple, voting shares. However, to make things more confusing, some companies reverse these classifications and refer to their non-voting stock as Class A and their super voting stock as Class B.

Picture in Picture iMovie Plugin Pack
3.0


Picture in Picture iMovie Plugin Pack
3.0
04/26/2004 05:35 PM
iMovie plugin pack featuring Distort Effects and Morph Transitions.

Journal of Webology: An International
Electronic Journal


Journal of Webology: An International
Electronic Journal
08/31/2004 06:26 AM
Journal of Webology: An International Electronic Journal
http://www.webology.itgo.com/

Webology is a scholarly journal in English devoted to the various fields of Library and Information Science and serves as a forum for discussion and experimentation. It serves as a forum for new research in information dissemination and communication processes in general, and in the context of the World Wide Web in particular. Concerns include the production, gathering, recording, processing, storing, representing, sharing, transmitting, retrieving, distribution, and dissemination of information, as well as its social and cultural impacts. There is a strong emphasis on new information technologies and methodologies. The orientation is toward quantitative experimental work, but significant qualitative and historical research is also welcome.

INDC Journal: INDC Journal Interviews
Michael Berg


INDC Journal: INDC Journal Interviews
Michael Berg
06/08/2004 05:47 AM
Bill at INDC Journal is at it again, this time, interviewing Mike Berg .. interview a squirming Michael Berg .. interveiw with Nick Berg's father .. Checkout this interview:

indcjournal.com/archives/000485.php
track this site | 6 links


Where We are Heading


Where We are Heading 03/08/2004 11:18 PM
Frank Rich: Mel Gibson Forgives Us for His Sins. The vilification of Jews by Mr. Gibson, his film and some of his allies, unchallenged by his media enablers, is not happening in a vacuum. We are in the midst of an escalating election-year culture war in which those of "faith" are demonizing so-called "secularists" (for which read any Jews critical of Mr. Gibson and their fellow travelers, liberals). Politicians, we are learning, seem increasingly eager to wrap themselves in "The Passion of the Christ" as a handy signal to indicate they are opposed to all those "secularists" whose conspiracy is undermining all that right-thinking Americans hold near and dear.

Heading Home Soon


Heading Home Soon 12/19/2003 11:56 AM
In a few days I'll begin what's become an annual ritual since I moved to California almost exactly 4 years ago: going home for the holidays. Just writing this now, I'm wondering if the day will ever come that I don't consider Toledo, Ohio to be "home" instead of where I'm currently living. Do I have to spend more time away than the 25ish years that I lived there? Or maybe I just need to "settle down and get married"?...

"But at least they're heading in the
right direction:"


"But at least they're heading in the
right direction:"
01/26/2004 03:04 PM

Heading South


Heading South 01/03/2004 05:52 PM

Flying towards the
sun

When we decided to move to Finland one of the agreed upon features was that each year, budget permitting, we would take a Winter holiday somewhere the sun makes more of an appearance than glow occasionally on the horizon on the rare day that it's not cloudy. People always ask about the cold but the cold isn't the hard part of living in Scandinavia in the Winter, it's the darkness. November was a really hard month as the darkness really settles into your brain.

It's that time of year to go on holiday and I'm looking forward to reacting like a Sleestack to the evil, unfamiliar daystar and getting to know the cocktail boy poolside for a luxurious 7 days in Madeira. I'm going to also enjoy 7 days of internet-free living while hiking and taking pictures. It may be hard getting on the plane for the return trip. :)


Where is Transmeta Heading?


Where is Transmeta Heading? 04/02/2005 01:23 PM

Where the Net Is Heading in 2004


Where the Net Is Heading in 2004 12/22/2003 07:48 PM
However, a new wave of startups is also taking aim at Google -- as well as at Yahoo, the two search leaders (see BW Online, 12/16/03, "Google Here, There, and ...

WH Smith heading for CEO pay row


WH Smith heading for CEO pay row 01/29/2004 03:49 AM
The retailer's annual meeting could be a stormy affair with some shareholders set to vote against the new chief executive's £2.6m pay package.

Heading to PC Forum


Heading to PC Forum 04/09/2004 04:12 PM

Next stop in the Technorati speaking tour: PC Forum.

I'll be presenting the company on Monday afternoon - a real honor (go to the bottom of the page). We've got some fun new stuff to show off, and I'm tremendously excited to meet the stellar list of attendees Esther and Daphne always bring in. The big news this year is that that CNET has acquired Edventure Holdings, the company that puts on PC Forum - kudos to Esther, Daphne, Christina, and the team, and my hat goes off to Shelby and the folks at CNET - smart move! (Full disclosure: Esther Dyson is an investor in Technorati)

Golf, anyone?

I'll be heading out to Scottsdale this afternoon, so drop me a line at dsifry at technorati dot com if you are going to be in Scottsdale and are interested in hooking up for a late dinner tonight or golf Sunday morning. I'm not a great golfer, but I'm not a complete duffer - so anyone who enjoys a nice walk on a big manicured lawn along with some interesting conversation, send an email or leave a message at my room at the hotel.


Heading Off Failures


Heading Off Failures 03/08/2004 11:20 PM
Veritas, EMC extend disaster recovery to business continuity.

Why Detroit is heading to the web


Why Detroit is heading to the web 09/01/2004 06:16 AM
InternetRetailer.com Sep 1 2004 10:44AM GMT
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IT Investor's Journal: The big picture heading into '04

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