Mark Frauenfelder:
I've been reading a lot about Peak Oil, which refers to the year at
which oil production hits the peak of a bell curve, and after which
oil production goes down, tapering to zero.
There's some argument about the year of the peak, but pretty much
everyone agrees -- including the US government -- that the peak is
fewer than a couple of decades away. A lot of experts says we've
already hit the peak. James Howard Kunstler's piece in Rolling
Stone, called "The Long Emergency," argues that the US hit its
peak decades ago:
The United States passed its own oil peak -- about 11
million barrels a day -- in 1970, and since then production has
dropped steadily. In 2004 it ran just above 5 million barrels a day
(we get a tad more from natural-gas condensates). Yet we consume
roughly 20 million barrels a day now. That means we have to import
about two-thirds of our oil, and the ratio will continue to worsen.
The U.S. peak in 1970 brought on a portentous change in geoeconomic
power. Within a few years, foreign producers, chiefly OPEC, were
setting the price of oil, and this in turn led to the oil crises of
the 1970s. In response, frantic development of non-OPEC oil,
especially the North Sea fields of England and Norway, essentially
saved the West's ass for about two decades. Since 1999, these fields
have entered depletion. Meanwhile, worldwide discovery of new oil has
steadily declined to insignificant levels in 2003 and
2004.
I think its inevitable that we are going to go nuclear. There's really
no other way to deal with the fact that the world is hopelessly
dependent on cheap energy. Fortunately, new nuclear power technologies
like pebble bed reactors are much safer than the nuke plants of old.
(Here's a good
article about pebble bed reactors, written by Spencer Reiss in
Wired. Here's a Wired article by Peter Schwartz and Spencer
Reiss about "gr
een" nuke plants. And here's another pro-nuke article that David noted a while back, written by
Stewart Brand.)
Link to Rolling Stone story(Thanks, Brian!)
Reader comment: Alex Steffan at
WorldChanging says "you might be interested in reading these:"
The
Post-Oil Megacity (why I think Kunstler's wrong on the
implications of the end of cheap oil)
Reader comment: Brian Carnell says: "I like
nuclear power plants as much as the next guy, but the chart here shows
the real reason oil discoveries have leveled off -- until recently, we
had an almost two decade collapse in oil prices.
"The late 1990s saw the lowest prices for oil *EVER*. That doesn't
create much incentive to find new oil deposits (just as few people
were interested in exploiting the North Seas until oil went through
the roof in the 1970s.)
"If these oil prices continue, they'll almost certainly spur
another round of intensive oil exploration and exploitation that will
once again find yet more oil." Link
UPDATE: Here's another interesting article
about Peak Oil.
Colin Campbell of the Association for the Study of Peak
Oil and Gas (ASPO) predicts that production will begin its decline
between now and 2010.
British Petroleum exploration consultant Francis Harper believes it
will happen between 2010 and 2020. Consulting firm PFC Energy puts it
at around 2010 to 2015. The publication Petroleum Review predicts that
demand will outstrip supply in 2007. Richard Heinberg, author of the
2003 book, The Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial
Societies, expects a peak in 2007 or 2008.
Retired Princeton professor Kenneth Deffeyes, author of the
just-published, Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak is more
pessimistic, and more specific, about when the peak will happen:
Thanksgiving Day, 2005. (His tongue appears to be in his cheek
regarding the day, but not the year).
If all that is too gloomy for you, energy consultant Michael Lynch
maintains that there's no peak in sight for "the next 20 or 30 years."
Peter Odell of Erasmus University in the Netherlands has tacked a full
30 years onto Deffeyes' grim prediction, setting a date of
Thanksgiving 2035. And Uncle Sam has the cheeriest news of all: a peak
year of 2037 forecast by the Department of Energy.
boingboing.net/2005/04/13/peak_oil_article_in_.html track this
site | 3 links
On The Cover Of The Rolling Stone
On The Cover Of The Rolling Stone12/29/2003 11:50 PM Well, not exactly, but the Call-For-Helpathon did make the cover of
the Sunday New York Times television section, and that's even better
as far as I'm concerned. This is from the NYC local editions: The
national edition had a black...
Jobs interviewed by Rolling Stone12/08/2003 11:51 AM Rolling Stone has published an interesting interview with Apple CEO
Steve Jobs, in which he shares his views on the music industry and
Apple's position in it...
Steve Jobs: The Rolling Stone Interview
Steve Jobs: The Rolling Stone Interview12/08/2003 11:37 AM He changed the computer industry. Now he's after the music business.
By Jeff Goodell (Rolling Stone via MyAppleMenu)
Jobs talks music with Rolling Stone
Jobs talks music with Rolling Stone12/08/2003 10:26 AM Rolling Stone magazine is one of the latest periodicals to cozy up to
Apple CEO Steve Jobs. An article dated Dec. 3 has Jobs sh
aring his insights about the music industry.
Rolling Stone: The Curse of Dick Cheney
Rolling Stone: The Curse of Dick Cheney09/08/2004 10:46 AM Mark Frauenfelder:
"D" sez: This profile of Cheney is frightening. The only hope it
offers is that every President to have Cheney involved in its
adminitration has failed to be re-elected.
I knew the guy was bad, but if all the allegations in this article
are true, he's singlehandedly hamstrung all the offices of the
military and intelligence in the US:
Over at Defense, competent intelligence professionals were
purged in order to ease the way to war. Douglas Feith, brought in
under Rumsfeld to serve as undersecretary of defense for policy,
applied an ideological test to his staff: He didn't want competence;
he wanted fervor. Col. Pat Lang, a Middle East expert who served under
five presidents, Republican and Democratic, in key posts in military
intelligence, recalls being considered for a job at the Pentagon.
During the job interview, Feith scanned Lang's impressive resume. "I
see you speak Arabic," Feith said. When Lang nodded, Feith said, "Too
bad," and dismissed him.
News: BIAS unveils Peak Pro 5, Peak Pro XT 504/11/2005 08:43 AM BIAS Inc. unveiled in Frankfurt, Germany late last week Peak Pro 5,
the next generation of the company's professional stereo recording,
editing and mastering software. BIAS also announced Peak Pro XT 5, a
bundle that will include five brand-new BIAS plug-ins and several
other of the company's popular plug-ins.
Microsoft Keeps Rolling, Rolling, Rolling
Microsoft Keeps Rolling, Rolling, Rolling07/22/2004 09:24 AM Despite customer grousing over Software Assurance, numerous patent
lawsuits and countless legal-settlement payouts, Analysts are
predicting Microsoft will report on Thursday earnings of 29 cents a
share for Q4 (up from 23 cents a year ago). And sales are expected to
be around $9 billion for the quarter, up 11 percent from the year-ago
quarter.
The Observer | OMM | The Stone Roses, The Stone Roses
observer.guardian.co.uk/omm/story/0,13887,1240034,00.html track
this site | 4 links
Peak 4
Peak 404/17/2004 11:09 PM When you're ready to advance from amateur to professional, as Apple
makes it so easy for us to do, BIAS will be waiting. By Kirk Hiner,
Applelinks (via MyAppleMenu)
Peak 4.1.2
Peak 4.1.208/13/2004 11:41 PM The world’s most popular stereo audio editing,
processing, and mastering application.
Announcement: Peak 5
Announcement: Peak 504/07/2005 12:39 PM BIAS announced Peak Pro 5, plus a Peak XT bundle with new plug-ins,
shipping "Q2 2005".
Peak Time for NEL
Peak Time for NEL07/28/2004 02:49 AM Peak Communications has put together a fully integrated solution, with
the EMC7002 providing a compact, low power, versatile Encoder
Modulator Converter with the highest possible quality output . It
provides an essential and professional choice for news gatherers
worldwide. [PRWEB Jul 28, 2004]
BIAS Peak 4
BIAS Peak 407/31/2004 08:48 AM For anyone involved with sound design or sample-editing, Peak is an
exemplary version of a necessary tool. By Craig Stern, Mac Design Pro
(via MyAppleMenu)
Sneak Peak of New Mac Games06/21/2004 10:30 AM Mac Games and More has discovered new Mac games that have yet to be
released but their launches are forthcoming.
Descriptions with screenshots of the games can be found here:
Has Alcoa Reached Its Peak?07/08/2004 12:24 PM While the price of aluminum soars, the company's earnings reports are
coming up short.
Update: BIAS Peak 4.14
Update: BIAS Peak 4.1406/05/2005 11:11 PM The stereo recording and mastering application adds Tiger
compatibility, a Core Audio driver, Auto Detect Regions for splitting
recordings, and a new loop flag option for AIFF files.
Developers pass the peak of hype03/19/2003 10:45 PM Sales of web services development tools slipped last year and won't
recover till 2004, according to a new report from ... Grok Description matches for Peak oil article in Rolling Stone GrokA matches for Peak oil article in Rolling Stone
Peak oil article in Rolling Stone
The following phrases have been identified by the grok system as matching this entry:
