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Social Security Said to Go Broke in 2041 (AP)







Social Security Said to Go Broke in 2041
(AP)

Social Security Said to Go Broke in 2041
(AP)
03/23/2005 07:50 PM

AP - Social Security will begin paying out more in benefits than it receives in taxes in 2017, twelve years from now and a year earlier than previously estimated, trustees said Wednesday in a forecast adding fuel to the debate over changes President Bush wants.




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Social Security Said to Go Broke in 2041 (AP)

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Josh Marshall's regular postings on the Social Security debate have been impassioned, persistent and invaluable. Today's Talking Points Memo lays out, in different and probably clearer language than I have been able to muster, the point I've been intermittently making here about the Bush Administration's duplicitous case for Social Security "reform" -- that the "crisis" Bush and co. are scaring the nation with is one of their own making, since they've squandered so much of the fiscal reserve set aside precisely to shore up the retirement system's future:

 

After 1980 we started borrowing money big-time to finance our deficits -- in large part because of tax cuts on high-income earners. However you want to slice it, we started spending substantially more than we were taking in in tax revenue. So where'd we borrow the money? This is from memory, so I may have the numbers a bit off. But I believe about $4 trillion of that debt was borrowed on the open market -- individual Americans have them in their investment portfolios, or pension funds hold them, or the Chinese, Japanese and the Saudis and others have them in bonds. But about $3 trillion of those dollars we needed to fund the 1980s and 1990s deficits we managed to borrow closer to home. We borrowed it from the Social Security (and a few other government) trust fund(s). Almost the entirety of President Bush's Social Security phase-out plan comes down to a simple proposition: finding out how not to pay it back.

Josh's writing here comes close to the "It's a Wonderful Life"-style clarity on this subject that so often eludes even our most gifted economist-pundits, and that I ached for a month ago. As this debate unrolls in the New Year, he is someone to keep up with.

BONUS LINK [Via Brad DeLong]: For those interested in delving a bit more into the numbers, this post by Brad Setser is a great complement to Marshall's.

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I received some feedback via email regarding my post, No smoking gun in Iraq from January 13th. One reader wrote: Gee, I remember back in 1998 the Clintons and just about every Democrat in Congress were screaming that the budget "surplus" should only be used to "save Social Security." If you believe Social Security needed saving back then and doesn’t now then you must believe it has already been saved. Well, who saved it? Clinton didn’t do anything, so the only answer can be George W. Bush. So following the logic of the Democratic talking points that Social Security is not in crisis (which you have clearing bought into for whatever reason) to be consistent historically you must be willing to admit that someone saved Social Security already and you should be able to tell us who that was. Further you must be able to tell us what transpired in the last six years in the Social Security budget to take it from needing to be "saved" to no longer being in crisis. Are you willing to blog on that a bit? I could blog on that for a bit (and address the issue of conflating talk of long-term Social Security reform with "crisis" and an immediate push towards privatization), but it's a lot easier to point everyone to someone who can do a much better job of it than I: Hendrik Hertzberg at The New Yorker. In this week's Talk of The Town, Unsocial Insecurity Mr. Hertzberg writes: "This is one of my charges, is to explain to Congress as clearly as I can: the crisis is now," Bush proclaimed at an "economic summit" a month ago. He does indeed have some 'splaining to do. This year, the Social Security system--the payroll tax, which brings money in, and the pension program, which sends money out--will bring in about $180 billion more than it sends out. It will go on bringing in more than it sends out until 2028, at which point it will begin to draw on the $3.5 trillion surplus it will by then have accumulated. The surplus runs out in 2042, right around the time George W. Bush turns ninety-six. After that, even if nothing has changed, the system's income will continue to cover seventy-three per cent of its outgo.That's using the Social Security Administration's economic and demographic assumptions, which are habitually pessimistic. Using the assumptions of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the surplus runs out in 2052. And if one uses the economic growth assumptions that Bush's own budget office uses when it calculates the effects of his own tax cuts, the surplus runs out in--er, maybe never. I do support some kind of Social Security reform, if only to ensure that the surplus never runs out. But I question the language of "crisis" and the rush to privatization -- a solution that Hertzberg points out that even White House officials and The Comptroller General of the United States, David M. Walker, say does nothing to eliminate the long-term gap and maintain the solvency of the fund.

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01/05/2005 11:48 PM
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01/05/2004 04:54 AM
You've all seen them (and most people have probably filled them out): some random form for something or another that asks for your social security number. Many retail shops (such as video rental stores) ask for them - but they have no reason to know that information. People are growing increasingly concerned because having someone's social security number is usually a key piece for doing some identity theft. Of course, these days, getting your hands on someone else's social security number is pretty damn easy - and part of that is because people ask for it all the time, and most people comply. Many people either don't realize how important the number is or just don't want to complain about it being asked for - even if, in many cases, these firms have no right to know. Of course, that's never going to change. Instead, what we should be working towards is a system that doesn't require a permanent and easily copied number like a social security number to prove you are who you say you are. It's like having a not very secret password that's impossible to change. Not very secure. Until a more secure system is standard, the problem isn't likely to go away.

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SaveSocial Security blog .. A new weblog

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Battle Ahead Over Social Security Report
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Battle Ahead Over Social Security Report
(AP)
03/23/2005 04:45 AM
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Social Security Bill Eases Up on
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06/22/2005 02:56 AM
AP - With the acquiescence of their leaders, key House Republicans are drafting Social Security legislation stripped of President Bush's proposed personal accounts financed with payroll taxes and lacking provisions aimed at assuring long-term solvency.

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GOP Leaders Weigh New Social Security
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04/07/2005 08:08 PM
AP - Senate Republican leaders are considering whether to seek Democratic support for Social Security legislation without the personal accounts sought by President Bush, aiming to restore them later, officials said Thursday.

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G.O.P. Divided as Bush Views Social
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Democrats Say Social Security Problems
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AARP Says No To Bush ... The AARP is coming out strong against private Social security investment accounts, saying they "will actually make the problem worse, not better." In January they plan to spend $50 million on an ad campaign opposing privatization. Kevin Drum of The Washington Monthly has also been awesome in pointing out that the common wisdom that Social Security is in trouble is just not true.
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