A Running Out Story
Grok Headline matches for A Running Out Story
RUNNING OUT
OF ROOM, RUNNING OUT OF TIME
RUNNING OUT
OF ROOM, RUNNING OUT OF TIME
01/07/2004 01:22 PM
When I was researching the
article One Billion
Americans?,
I got thinking about the implications of the wildly conservative
Census
Bureau projections of US population, and the embarrassing drastic
upward revisions that have been made to them, for global
population projections. What made the US projections so wrong (US
population peaking at 295 million was predicted as recently as fifteen
years ago) was the compound error of underestimating the extent of
immigration and overestimating the rate at which immigrants adjust
their family size to the average of their new country, or the global
average. It's an understandable error -- there's lots of evidence that
population growth rates in the developing world are falling quickly.
But that's not because third
world countries are evolving to two-child-or-less families as infant
mortality drops. Rather, it's because those countries are simply
unable
to sustain more children, so parents are reluctantly, temporarily
reducing family size as a result. Give them the option to emigrate to
a
developed country, and cultural preference, religious dictates, and
improved health care will jump their family size (and life expectancy)
back up again. And as inevitable ecological and humanitarian
catastrophes arise in the 21st century in dozens of third world
countries, compounded by the scourges of new diseases, horrendous
shortages of clean water, and desertification and crop flooding due to
global warming, the pressure to increase immigration quotas by orders
of magnitude will be fierce.
Back in 1990 when the pundits were predicting US population would peak
at 295 million (it passed that level last year and is now expected to
peak at between 550 million and 1.2 billion, if it peaks at all), they
were saying global population would peak at around 9-11 billion in
2100. But for that to happen with a US population of, say, 900 million
instead of 300 million, would mean average third world family size
would be much smaller than average US family size. The UN projections,
for example, assume annual average growth rate for Africa, Asia and
Latin America of 0.5% in the latter half of this century, compared to
a
current growth rate in those areas (even including China with its
already-low birth rate) of 2.1%, and compared to a current US growth
rate of 0.9%, which is trending back up to a projected 1.3% rate for
most of the current century, thanks to immigration.
So the 9-11 billion global peak population just doesn't add up. While
it doesn't make sense to get Malthusian and project population will
grow indefinitely at current rates (1.3%, i.e. a doubling every 50
years to 24 billion by 2100), it's equally illogical and irresponsible
to suggest that the whole world will start immediately radically
reducing its fertility rate to achieve in just two generations the low
fertility rate that Europe took one hundred generations to reach. If
you assume that the levels of immigration now
projected by the US Census Bureau will prevail throughout the
developed
world, that first- and second-generation citizens of developed
countries will continue to have considerably larger-than-replacement
level families in their new adopted countries, that the prevailing
pro-fertility population dogmas of organized world religions will not
suddenly be changed, that population pressure in the third world will
be eased somewhat by immigration and that modest drops in family size
in those countries will be largely offset by longer life expectancy,
as
has been observably the case in almost every third world country
except
China, then instead of the 9-11 billion peak the UN is currently
talking about, you end up with population soaring past 14 billion in
2100, with no end in sight (left chart above).
The curved red line shows the carrying capacity of Earth, assuming a
modest annual increase in productivity from the current 30 billion
acres (productive-capacity adjusted), assuming average footprint per
capita continues to increase by a modest 1% per year, and assuming no
land on the planet is reserved for wilderness or natural space for the
rest of Earth's creatures. It shows in 2000 that the world could
sustain 5 billion humans at the then-prevailing level of consumption.
That's a billion humans less than actually inhabited the planet then,
possible only by depriving much of the world of a subsistence level of
resources, and by taking more from the Earth (in non-renewable
resources) than we replaced, essentially stealing the excess from
future generations. At the expected global level of per-capita
consumption in 2100 (still well below today's North American
consumption levels), carrying capacity drops to 2 billion humans. That
number is substantiated by a recent C
ornell
study that says the choice in 2100 is between 2 billion people living
a
comfortable but not lavish life (achieved by a drastic population
reduction) or 12 billion "struggling in misery". And if you want to
allow 50% of the planet's surface for other life forms, you need to
achieve double that reduction (green line), to one billion people, the
level both Jim
Merkel and Bill
McKibben think we should strive for. That's only achievable, short
of coercion, by an average one child family worldwide for the next century.
The right chart shows that the increasing average footprint, driven
both by North American excess and the surging resource use of China's
billion plus people, will drive the aggregate human footprint up even
more sharply than aggregate population, from 37 billion acres today
(20% more than Earth's carrying capacity) to 210 billion acres in 2100
(six times Earth's carrying capacity). Now remember, these assumptions
are much closer to the wildly
optimistic assumptions of population levelling that the UN and other
global agencies optimistically hope for, than to the Malthusian
no-change projections that would see nearly double these numbers.
Nevertheless, train wreck ahead.
We simply have no choice. We must immediately and aggressively reduce our family
sizes worldwide, and we must
immediately and aggressively reduce per-capita resource consumption,
waste and footprint. That means we must confront religions that don't
actively encourage birth control and small families, and show those
religions to
be socially irresponsible. That means, too, we need to introduce ecological
taxation
measures to make excessive resource consumption and waste
prohibitively
expensive, and reward those who tread lightly on the Earth.
|
Micah Wright Comes Clean, Ranger Story A
Hoax (This Is Apparently A Big Story In
The Blogosphere, But To Be Honest, I
Haven't Even Heard Of This Clown)
Micah Wright Comes Clean, Ranger Story A
Hoax (This Is Apparently A Big Story In
The Blogosphere, But To Be Honest, I
Haven't Even Heard Of This Clown)
05/03/2004 03:57 AMComic Book Resources has the full
scoop
comicbookresources.com/news/newsitem.cgi?id=3613
track this
site | 4 links
"REMEMBER WHEN MOQTADA AL-SADR was going
to lead a popular uprising across Iraq?
(That was April's we're-losing story).
Well, he didn't, and here's the story of
how we won. I wonder how much attention
it'll get..."
"REMEMBER WHEN MOQTADA AL-SADR was going
to lead a popular uprising across Iraq?
(That was April's we're-losing story).
Well, he didn't, and here's the story of
how we won. I wonder how much attention
it'll get..."
06/24/2004 11:11 AMThe Raw Story | A rational voice »
Exclusive: Print document of Republican
Schiavo talking points leaked to Raw
Story
The Raw Story | A rational voice »
Exclusive: Print document of Republican
Schiavo talking points leaked to Raw
Story
03/24/2005 05:02 PMthat clumsy Republican talking points memo .. proper perspective ..
Raw Story
rawstory.com/news/2005/index.php?p=202
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site | 4 links
The Story Behind The Story Of The Google
IPO?
The Story Behind The Story Of The Google
IPO?
07/26/2004 12:14 PMThis morning, it seems like the big Wall Street tech story is the
official release from Google about what they think they'll raise from
their IPO. Looking over all the different coverage, it appears that
many (especially in the financial press) seem to be getting the story
a little mixed up. The basic facts seem to be that approximately
24.6 million shares
will be put on the market with a range of $108 to $135 per share.
As noted in the story, some seem to think that breaking $100 may prove
to be a psychological barrier for many retail investors, even if the
actual price per share is meaningless. Still, if the price is a
psychological barrier, rather than a calculated decision, the investor
probably shouldn't be buying anyway. A minimum bid from anyone must
be for five shares, so anyone who wants in is spending over $500. The
range is higher than expected, and could lead to a valuation pushing
$40 billion. One analyst makes the bizarre statement that:
"The question is not what the company is
worth, but instead what people will pay for it," which misses the
fairly simple, but important, point that the price people are willing
to pay for the stock
is what the company is worth. Meanwhile,
many news articles are claiming that
Google will raise
$3.3 billion in the offering, which is not true at all (or at
least, extremely unlikely). The details show that Google is likely to
bring
in about $1.66 billion (and possibly as high as $1.9 billion at
the top of the range). That's because only 14.1 million of the 24.6
million shares are actually being sold by the company. The other 10.5
million are being sold by insiders. Now, that's a curious point that
no one seems to be focusing on. While insiders do sometimes sell
during an IPO, it generally doesn't look too good. While there are
plenty of reasons (liquidity, liquidity, liquidity) that people might
want to sell, usually insiders get locked up for a bit. It does
happen, but in this case, an awful lot of that $3.3 billion (or
whatever the amount actually is) isn't going to the company, but to
others. The initial IPO filing tried to spin all this insider selling
as a good thing, but that's pretty questionable. If people really
believe in the stock, why are so many selling it at the
very
first chance they get? Doesn't inspire the most confidence in the
world.
Why are you still running NT 4?
Why are you still running NT 4?
05/12/2004 04:13 AMMaybe I'm missing something, but it doesn't seem that it would be all
that hard to transfer files from an NT 4 server to a Windows 2003
Server.
A running man
A running man
07/26/2004 09:29 PMYeah, it's nearly four o'clock, and I'm writing this entry. It's been
the first day of my four weeks of vacation, and I spent much of it
carrying things from one place to another place, and in general
putting things on top of other things. The members of the Society
would've been proud. But it was good fun; plenty of exercise and
fresh air.
The reason I am not yet asleep is that I've spent the past eight hours
in the Ropecon after-party, which - all as con workers know - is the
true reason why anyone works for free for three days: the chance to
eat food, drink beer, talk, go to sauna, play games and really have a
few hours to feel good about what they have just accomplished. No
pressure, no shifts, no deadlines.
I did miss the annual nude wrestling competition this year (again),
but for good reason: Erick Wujick gamemastered an impromptu game, with
a few really nasty twists. My character ended up as a hermit somewhere
in Colorado, hiding in the forest, shooting at people, and being very,
very afraid of the moment when he eventually dies. Not bad for an
hours game. Plenty of fun.
Tomorrow it will be even busier. I gotta apologize to some people who
I know read the blog: I haven't had time to answer any emails, and I
probably will not have the time tomorrow either, but I have read them,
and answering your emails with oneliners would be a tad impolite.
Get up and running with .NET
Get up and running with .NET
09/06/2002 10:43 PMCNET Sep 6 2002 10:06PM ET
CA COO Says Not Running for CEO Post
CA COO Says Not Running for CEO Post
05/23/2004 07:43 PMBoston Globe May 23 2004 11:08PM GMT
New List Running
New List Running
01/11/2004 08:13 PMThe new list is running: For those of you subscribed to the Wi-Fi
Networking News mailing list, the new list is running, and new
unsubscribe and list information will appear in the message you
receive that has this post from the site. To subscribe the list, enter
your email at left below the hotspot search box....
Running vampire bat
Running vampire bat
03/24/2005 02:22 PMDavid Pescovitz:
Cornell University scientists captured a
Muybridge-e
sque video of a running vampire bat. Apparently, the vampire bat is
the only bat known to run. From Science News:
(Researcher Daniel Riskin) placed each bat inside a cage about the
size of an elongated shoe box with a customized treadmill as the
floor. At first, the bats strolled along. When Riskin sped up the
treadmill to more than 0.5 meter per second, he was startled to find
that bats started bounding, pushing off with their powerful forearms.
The maximum speed clocked was 1.2 m/s.
"It's not often in science that you have the eureka moment like we
did," says Riskin. "I'll always remember just looking over at my
coauthor John Hermanson and he looked back at me, and we just started
laughing."
Link
to article,
Link to .mov of running bat
(Thanks,
Squidocto!)
Why is the US running scared?
Why is the US running scared?
01/19/2004 10:41 AMrunning notes
running notes
06/07/2004 06:03 AMLife Hacks
craphound.com/lifehacks2.txt
track this
site | 4 links
Running in Munich
Running in Munich
03/14/2005 05:38 PMI'll be heading to Munich at the end of the week for a conference, and
while I'm there, I need to continue my training for the Paris
Marathon. I found this article from Runner's World, Travel: On the
Road: Munich, Germany that suggests many areas to run in the city. Of
course, it assumes it's not winter, and extoles the lushness of the
parks and warns of nude sunbathers. The routes sound good though and
I'm looking forward to exploring the city on my training jogs.
New Server Up and Running....
New Server Up and Running....
08/16/2002 07:52 AMWho's Running This Show Anyway?
Who's Running This Show Anyway?
04/09/2004 04:00 PMRunning Mac OS X Panther
Running Mac OS X Panther
04/22/2004 01:28 PMRunning (wheeze) again
Running (wheeze) again
06/03/2004 03:15 PMToday was my first run since well before my
surgery, and it felt great to finally be active again.
The downside, though, is that I was huffing and puffing before the
first mile - a far cry from the effortless nine milers I was doing a
few months ago. Of course, I attribute part of this to my eight week
"beer and pizza" recovery program, which led me to gain more than a
few extra pounds (ahh, but it was worth it!).
Anyway...it's nice to start to feel like myself again, despite the
fact that I now have a hunk of metal in my neck.
PHP Running Management 0.3.1
PHP Running Management 0.3.1
06/04/2004 06:38 PMA training or race running management tool.
Think the Subway's Running Later? You're
Right
Think the Subway's Running Later? You're
Right
03/26/2005 08:58 AMAccording to an analysis covering the last eight years, the number of
delays on the New York subway has increased over the last 18 months.
PHP Running Management
PHP Running Management
05/28/2004 01:43 AMPHP Running Management 0.3 released
Your reasons for running NT 4
Your reasons for running NT 4
05/19/2004 04:27 AMI asked you to write and let me know why you're still running NT 4
servers, and write to me you did. Either everyone who reads this
newsletter has an NT 4 server (or more - some of you have hundreds!)
tucked up on the network, or the only people who read it are those
with NT 4 servers. The outpouring of e-mail exceeded all but the time
when I said Macintosh advertising was addlepated (see link below), but
you know how those Mac fanatics can be.
running to stand still
running to stand still
02/05/2005 09:48 PMSketch's vet told me that his lungs are clear, he's bright and
active, and he's looking strong . . . but his kidney levels are still
elevated from the lasix, and he isn't eating.
It really worries me that he's not eating, but I hope it's just
because he's tired of being in the hospital, and he wants to come home
and sleep on my his bed.
They told me that I should come down and visit him, because maybe
he'll eat for me. Sketch has always been a stubborn cat, but he's
extremely affectionate, and I'm hoping that when I get down there and
give him some love, and tell him how excited we all are for him to
come home, he'll perk up and chow down.
I'm scared. I don't like it that he's not eating.
New Virus Running
New Virus Running
01/26/2004 08:48 PMSignificant outbreak of new virus found running hard in wild. Watch
yourself...
Running KDE with Apple's X11
Running KDE with Apple's X11
11/16/2003 01:47 PMOver the last few days, I installed KDE from source (using
darwinports), which took forever. Then I endeavored to get KDE running
correctly under Apple's X11. I looked at the two hints that mention
KDE already on this site, b...
PHP Running Management 0.4
PHP Running Management 0.4
07/06/2004 03:33 AMA training or race running management tool.
Another Install is Currently Running
Another Install is Currently Running
04/12/2004 10:12 AMRunning on time
Running on time
05/28/2004 07:58 AMManchester Online May 28 2004 12:10PM GMT
Running on Fumes
Running on Fumes
05/26/2004 02:59 PMAn enormous spike in gas prices has enticed some to forsake their cars
for alternative transportation.
Running 64-bit Linux On A G5
Running 64-bit Linux On A G5
12/18/2003 08:05 AMMe running in the desert
Me running in the desert
02/01/2005 09:56 PMI'm demoing pictures at the moment, ignore this....
PHP Running Management 0.5
PHP Running Management 0.5
08/02/2004 06:13 AMA training or race running management tool.
Running on empty
Running on empty
03/17/2005 03:27 AM“The leading energy analysts who foretold Enron’s demise
have an alarming new claim: The world’s major oil companies are
almost tapped out. Four years ago, the analysts at John S. Herold Inc.
were the first to call bullshit on Enron. On Feb. 21, 2001, three
Herold analysts issued a report that said Enron’s profit margins
were shriveling, the company had too few hard assets, and its stock
price was way too high. Less than ten…
Direct and Related Links for 'Running on empty'
What the Candidates are Running
What the Candidates are Running
11/06/2003 01:27 PMIs SAP's tap running dry?
Is SAP's tap running dry?
04/14/2004 03:53 PMThe German software maker hit pay dirt in the 1990s with breakthrough
technology for the world's largest companies, but critics think the
company could be losing its edge
Running Linux on an iPAQ
Running Linux on an iPAQ
09/13/2004 08:50 AMProblems with running TSAFS
Problems with running TSAFS
09/25/2004 05:20 AMLast week's newsletter "A problem with NLMs not cleaning up after
themselves" brought lots of mail from you, dear readers. Most of it
was of the "hey, I'm not alone in having this problem" sort and we'll
get to those details in a moment.
The cult that's running the country
The cult that's running the country
05/03/2004 08:15 AMJoseph Wilson blasts the secretive neoconservative cabal that plunged
America into a disastrous war, in this excerpt from his new book.
On the island running front
On the island running front
09/11/2004 02:53 PMI've been building up my distance lately as marathon day (or M-day)
draws closer. Last Sunday I had a beautiful 10 miler out to the ocean
and back, which you can see here on my map of my running route. I'll
keep adding to this as my weekend runs lengthen. For my 20 miler, I'm
thinking about going out to Siasconset, around to Polpis and back
home. And maybe if I go totally insane, I'll run out to Great Point
and back. But that seems unlikely.
Grok Description matches for A Running Out Story
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A Running Out Story
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