Grok Headline matches for "John Battelle?s predictions for 2005"
John Battelle on Searchstreams
John Battelle on Searchstreams08/14/2004 03:06 PM Great entry on Battelle's Searchblog about the value of recording the
journey of finding information on the Web.
That's when I remembered As We May Think, Vannevar Bush's
famous essay in The Atlantic. I had read it earlier in my research,
and was struck not by the idea of the Memex, which is well understood,
but by Bush's explication of the problem - that knowledge and learning
has become so complicated, so layered, so inefficient, that it is near
impossible for anyone to be a generalist, in the sense Aristotle was.
Bush's answer to this problem was the Memex, of course, but what I
find interesting is the mechanism by which the Memex is made potent -
the mechanism for capturing the traces of a researcher's discovery
through the Memex's corpus, and storing those traces as intelligence
so the next researcher can learn from them and build upon
them.
I'm proud to know
John. He's become a catalyst for alot of things - including some
killer parties on the rooftop of "The Industry Standard".
I still remember standing in line at 4:45 on a Friday - so I could
get a good piece of the roof - as the masses flowed in. It was THE
place to do deals and meet people - at the height of the boom.
Now John has his book and his conference - Web 2.0. Watch for him
to start a company this year. It was part of his predictions for
2005.
John Battelle on Google's Froogle Promotion
John Battelle on Google's Froogle Promotion12/18/2003 01:05 PM If you're interested in the web search world and aren't reading John
Battelle's searchblog, you really should be. John's a smart guy who
knows a ton of people in this area. On the recent addition of Froogle
results to Google search results, John says: ...it is a clear
departure from the conceit - and I use that term neutrally - that
Google has always maintained, which is that the results offered by
their engine are free of human intervention -...
Online video of 60 Minutes Google seg (with John Battelle)
After chit chatting for a few minutes, he took me to a
small room - no wider than my outstretched arms - at the far end of
which stood one of those classic red English phone booths. We stepped
inside - a bit cramped - and Danny lifted the receiver and dictated a
passphrase of some sort. Presto - the rear wall of the booth opened,
and we stepped into - nerdvana.
From a cramped phone booth into massive pure-white-lit space
two-stories high, adorned with all manner of things strange and
beautiful. Over to one side stood the Terminator-like skeleton of a
forty-foot dinosaur, its 15-foot pneumatic legs gleaming and exposed.
Nearly blending into the walls, itself painted movie-set white, was a
tricked out Hummer-like RV refitted as a communications/command center
- complete with built-in kitchen and bedroom. The space was a great
big project lab, with happy geeks combing over various assemblages of
wiring, motors, processors and plans like ants on a summer picnic.
It's Willy Wonka's chocolate factory for geeks.
My predictions for 200512/31/2004 12:31 PM 2004 was the Year of the iPod and a great year for Apple. Although
there were many major Mac developments, including the iMac G5, the
iPod took the spotlight this year as the hottest must-have...
[[ Visit http://www.macmegasite.com for full article ]]
Predictions for 2005
Predictions for 200512/30/2004 04:43 AM If idle hands are the devil's tools, then boredom at work must be his
machine gun. In that spirit, here is this years (embarrassingly early)
entry to a continuing K5 tradition, Predictions 2005, plus a look back
at least years predictions.
2005 Predictions
2005 Predictions01/06/2005 09:49 PM Information Week Jan 7 2005 1:14AM GMT
Battelle's tech predictions for 200512/24/2004 12:29 PM Xeni Jardin:
John Battelle gazes knowingly into a crystal ball, and reports "things
that I believe have a reasonable chance of occurring in 2005 with
regard to the intersection of media, technology, and search." Really
good stuff here, consider it required reading. Link
Few brokerages making predictions for 2005 Fannie Mae board meets to talk shake-up Kia Spectra gets
Ideal Predictions, More Likely Predictions12/30/2003 12:06 PM It's the time of year for predictions, and Wired News has done a
little twist on the typical "predictions for 2004" story by having prediction
s that a variety of interesting people would like to see
happen, along with what they actually expect to happen. The end
result is pretty much what you'd expect: people would like to see less
spam, better security, and better intellectual property laws - but
expect the opposite to happen.
“Got Game” Author & Researcher John C. Beck to Keynote G.A.M.E.S. Synergy Summit™ January 27th 2005 in Orlando
“Got Game” Author & Researcher John C. Beck to Keynote G.A.M.E.S. Synergy Summit™ January 27th 2005 in Orlando01/07/2005 04:14 AM John C. Beck, President of North Star Leadership Group, Senior
Research Fellow at University of Southern California’s Annenberg
Center for the Digital Future, and a Senior Advisor at the Monitor
Group, will keynote the international G.A.M.E.S. Synergy Summit™ to be
held Wednesday-Friday, January 26th-28th, 2005 in Orlando. Dr. Beck
researched and co-authored “Got Game: How the Gamer Generation is
Reshaping Business Forever” (Harvard Business School Press, Fall
2004). He will share insights about the strengths, abilities,
attitudes and learning styles of the under-34 gamer generation,
distinctly different from the baby boomers, and how enterprises across
all disciplines can adapt to encourage their best performance. An
acronym for Government, Academic, Military, Entertainment and
Simulation, the G.A.M.E.S. Synergy Summit™ brings together leaders
from each of these convergent sectors to discover new ways that
interactive game-based technologies can address a broad range of
beneficial, non-entertainment applications. [PRWEB Jan 7, 2005]
Battelle on Google's S-1
Battelle on Google's S-104/30/2004 03:37 AM John Battelle's analysis of Google's S-1 filing -- and particularily,
the charming-but-stilted founders' letter -- is fascinating and
insightful:
The letter states, among other things, that 1. We don't need to do
this for the money; 2. We have no plans to run our business to satisfy
Wall Street's need for smooth earnings predictability; 3. We plan to
give no earnings guidance, not at least as it's understood on Wall
St.; 4. Don't ask us to do so, we'll simply decline the request; 5.
We'll do odd things that you won' t understand; 6. We will make big
bets on things that may not work out; 7. We run the company as a
triumvirate, so there will not be clear leadership from one person
like most other companies; 8. We bridge the media and tech industries
(interesting), which are in flux, so we've chosen a two-class stock
structure similar to the NYT, WashPost, and NYT that helps us avoid
being taken over by those forces; 9. We plan using an auction model,
as it feels fairer and we understand auctions from AdWords; 10. Don't
invest in us if this scares you at all, or the price feels too high;
11. Don't even think about asking us to cut expenses with regard to
our employees; 12. We believe in the idea of Don't Be Evil; 13. It's
evil to pay for placement or inclusion (a swipe at Yahoo); 14. We hope
to bridge the digital divide through Gmail type free services and a
foundation with at least 1% of profits and equity to help make the
world a better place; 17. Betting on Google is a bet on Sergey and
Larry (this was said multiple times, making me wonder if there wasn't
some odd future blame being assigned here by the VCs or bankers); 18.
This letter is our way of answering the questions we can't answer in
the coming months due to the IPO quiet period.
Battelle on TimesSelect06/05/2005 10:46 PM As a follow up to yesterday's post, John Battelle's got some
interesting perspective on the TimesSelect announcement as well, over
on SearchBlog....
Battelle and The First Rule of AdSense
Battelle and The First Rule of AdSense09/07/2004 09:55 PM John Battelle is blogging his experience with advertising on his
weblog. He's started with Google AdSense (which I also use) but seems
to have violated the First Rule of Google AdSense rather quickly.
There's some amusing (or sad, depending on your point of view) stuff
in his post as well as some good comments from Cory Doctorow in the
comments, like: anything the scale of Google is way, way too big to be
involved in editorial decision I think John's...
"If anybody got a Porsche or a Ferrari right now at Google, they’d
probably be drummed out of the company," observes John Battelle, an
author and entrepreneur who has been following Silicon Valley
companies for 20 years. He says, "Google has a brand image to
maintain. And their image is they’re all about innovation and
they’re all about the Internet, and they’re all about trust.
They’re not about selling out. They’re not about getting rich
quick. So you’ve got a culture like that; I think if anyone were to
buy, you know, a new Mercedes convertible and drive around with the
stereo blaring, and miss work a couple days because they’re rich
now, that would not be acceptable behavior at Google.
"But trust me," he adds. "There’s a Mercedes convertible in every
one of their heads. There is. And it will…come out. Over time, it
will come out."
The show also included a killer piece on Indian film star and
hyperbolic superbeauty Aishwarya Rai. Snip:
The reason Bollywood films have such universal appeal is because
they’re squeaky-clean. There are no sex scenes, not even kissing.
Every time you think someone’s going to do it, they'll burst into
song instead. "I'd assume that's really a reflection of our society,"
Rai says, when asked to explain the films' modesty. "Of course people
kiss and of course people have a very healthy love life. This is the
land of the Kama Sutra. But nevertheless, in our society you don't
really see people around the street corner kissing or being extremely,
overtly, physically demonstrative publicly. They do it privately but
not publicly."
Link to Google piece with BoingBoing's own John Battelle,
and Link to seg on Aishwarya Rai.
:: John Kerry for President - John Kerry's Official Naval Records ::
johnkerry.com/about/military_records.html track this
site | 8 links
Radio Interview with John Brady Kiesling and John H. Brown
Radio Interview with John Brady Kiesling and John H. Brown03/15/2003 06:05 AM KALW in San Francisco did an hour
long radio interview with John Brady Kiesling and John H. Brown,
the American Foreign Service officers who resigned over Bush's Iraq
policy. Both are impressive speakers, and Kiesling is as articulate
and as convincing as his letter:
If we can't convince
our historical allies that this is a good thing to do, there is no way
we are going to be able to convince the Arab world.
People have to take a stand. War may be inevitable, but we need to do
what we can to keep our consciences clean.
There is a policy to make America safer, but this is not it.
"America is still the safest country in the world. The
administration is trying to scare people with this talk about terror
and duct tape. We should use our safety and prosperity and our
strength to do good and we can do good."
Brown said his resignation was "in part a result of Andrew Card's
comment, 'Never launch a product in August.' War is not a
product."
I learned a lot from listening to it. Recommended. Requires
Real Player.
johnkerry.com/pressroom/speeches/spc_2004_0527.html track this
site | 8 links
"One Of The Authors Of A New Anti-John Kerry Book Frequently Posted Comments On A Conservative Web Site Describing Muslims And Catholics As Pedophiles And Pope John Paul Ii As Senile (If You Can't Refute The Charges, Attack The People Making Them)"
As for SCO, they'll continue to make noise until the
middle of the year, at which point the legal case will implode and the
company will give up. By that time, the company executives, insiders,
and major investors will have all sold their positions at a handsome
profit. This was never more than a stock scam, pushing the price of
SCO shares up by more than 15 times.
The Sad State of Predictions02/01/2005 08:50 PM Around April 12th, 2004, I made the following prediction in a forum
post: Here is a fun game to play...
Here we are again, the end of the year. Last year I did pretty
well with my prognostications, mainly because I chose carefully. This
time, I'm feeling a bit more reckless. A year from now, I am sure I'll
be scratching my head - what was I thinking? - but then
again, that's not such a bad place to be.
So in no particular order, here are some things that I believe have a
reasonable chance of occurring in 2005 with regard to the intersection
of media, technology, and search.
1. We will have a goat rodeo of sorts in the
blogging/micropublishing/RSS world as commercial interests push into
what many consider a "pure medium." I've seen this movie before, and
it ends OK. But it's important that the debate be full throated, and
so far it looks to be shaping up that way. I'm already seeing these
forces at work over at Boing Boing, and I am sure they
will continue. We'll all work on figuring out ways to stick to our
principles and get paid at the same time, however, I expect that
things might get more contentious before they get better, and
2005 may be a more fractious year in the blogosphere
as we evolve through this process.
2. Along those lines, things will not go as swimmingly as we'd like
with regard to "monetizat
ion." As the majors get into the space and start throwing around
their weight and lucre, some folks will make bad decisions, and others
will freeze and make no decisions at all. It will get harder to
innovate before it gets easier. We'll all be surprised by the lack of
what we consider "progress" in the RSS/Blogging world, and
expectations of major publishing revenues will not materialize as
quickly as perhaps we think they should. However, we'll in
fact be making huge strides in understanding the path
forward, it just won't seem like it. By the end of the year, the world
will begin to realize that "blogs" are in fact an extraordinarily
heterogeneous ecosystem comprised of scores, if not hundreds, of
different "types" of sites.
3. There will be two to five major new sites that emerge from
"nowhere" to become major cultural influencers along the lines of the
political bloggers of 2004. One of them will be sold
to a major publisher/aggregator for what seems like a large
sum of money, driving the abovementioned #2 and #3.
4. Meanwhile, the long
tail will become the talk of the "old line" media world.
To capture some of that value, we'll see a slew of deals and new
publishing projects from the established brands that seek to capture
the idea of community journalism, affiliate commerce sales, and
collaborative content creation.
5. Google will do something major with Blogger. I really
have no idea what, but it's overdue. Six Apart will grow quickly but face
a crisis in its implementation as its core users demand more features
that are "unbloglike" like customer databases and robust publishing
support tools. This (and other things) may drive Six Apart or one of
its competitors into the arms of Yahoo or AOL or even - gasp - Quark
or Adobe or Marcomedia.
6. Ask will
continue to consolidate traffic by buying smaller
search sites.
7. Yahoo and Google will both test systems that combine local
merchant inventory information with search, so that merchants
can use search as a direct sales channel. By the end of the year,
there will be no question that the search companies are in direct
competition with the ecommerce companies, but it won't matter -
there's room for them all. Paul Ford will continue to get droves of
readers to his related, and very prescient, three year old
post on how Google takes over the world.
8. Microsoft will lose search share before they gain
it back later in the year when the integration of MSN
search starts to scale with new versions of Office and IE .
Net net, however, MSFT will gain total in total search sessions from
last year, and its technology will get much, much better.
9. Firefox will
near 15% of total browser share. Firefox faithful
will wonder why it's not much much higher. But MSFT will release a
very good upgrade of IE, see #8.
10. A third party platform player with major economies of scale (ie
eBay or Amazon) will release a search related innovation that
blows everyone's mind, and has everyone buzzing about how it
redefines what's possible in search.
11. The China question will become a critical issue
to the search community. Defining the China question will in itself be
a major task of 2005. How do search companies go in without being
"evil"? Is the tradeoff worth it?
12. By the end of the year, there will be no question that
search is a media business, and that the major
players in search are major players in the content business.
13. Something major will finally happen at Tivo. We all hope that it's
a sale to Apple, but if it is a sale, it will more likely be to
Comcast or DirecTv.
14. All year, Apple will be rumored to launch a video
iPod, but it won't - it's still too
early. By the end of 2005, we will just be starting to see traction in
the video over IP market and its connection to search. Google
will introduce Video search at some point in 05, but it will
stay in Labs.
15. Mobile will finally be plugged into the
web in a way that makes sense for the average user and a
major mobile innovation - the kind that makes us all say - Jeez
that was obvious - will occur. At the core of this innovation
will be the concept of search. The outlines of such an innovation:
it'll be a way for mobile users to gather the unstructured data they
leverage every day while talking on the phone and make it useful to
their personal web (including email and RSS, in particular). And it
will be a business that looks and feels like a Web 2.0
business - leveraging iterative web development practices, open APIs,
and innovation in assembly - that makes the leap. (More on this when I
start posting again).
16. Perhaps most recklessly...I will finish
my
book. The reviews will be mixed, as my attempt to satisfy
both the exacting audience of Searchbloggers and the more general
audience of a major trade hardcover may fall flat. Many will say I
tried to do too much, others that I didn't do nearly enough (how's
that for airing my deepest fears in public?!). However, I'll be happy
with the effort, and the book will do OK, thanks mainly to the support
of this community. So, ahead of time, thanks for your support this
past year. I learned more from this process than I ever thought
possible, and I owe it all to you, who grace my site with your time
and input.
17. Lastly, I will be involved in starting a new
business in the field of media and technology. It will start
very slowly, and I'll screw up as much as I possibly can in the early
stages, before imposing it on the rest of the world. Hopefully, you'll
all be there to keep me honest as I try to figure out a few ideas I've
been simmering for the past year or so.
Unless there's a major story which breaks in the next week or so, I'm
signing off for the year, and look forward to resuming posting in
2005. Have a wonderful holiday, and a prosperous, healthy New Year.
Oh, and please add your thoughts on 2005 below - I know I missed a
lot....
