Global Warming

Grok Headline matches for Global Warming

Global trade, global warming

Global trade, global warming 12/11/2003 01:36 AM
Salon Dec 11 2003 0:56AM ET

Global trade = global warming

Global trade = global warming 12/12/2003 03:17 AM
Salon Dec 12 2003 2:13AM ET

Global Warming (II)

Global Warming (II) 08/27/2004 01:58 PM
Good comments, and mostly supportive though some skeptical along the lines of climate models are complex, climate science is uncertain, the experts may be wrong. All true; but reading the skeptical literature, I am reminded of the debates in the 1960s over the effects of cigarette smoking on human health....

Global Warming Picnic

Global Warming Picnic 05/19/2004 09:13 AM

We had a week or more of summer in the first week of May this year, while last year at this time it was still snowing on occasion. It was weather that begged for a picnic and so a few of us obeyed.

The weather has snapped back to its more normal pattern, but I can't help but be concerned when it's early May and 80+F in Finland and I read articles like Arctic Temperatures Warming Rapidly Polar Explorer, where a polar explorer describes the extreme amount of melting in the polar ice cap. The Arctic ice  has thinned by 40% over the last 20 years so you have to wonder what the dramatic change in the ice over the past year will mean in terms of climate change. The Helsingin Sanomat carried a story yesterday, Finland's climate may become warmer by up to 5°C, coming in the next 50 years, which would make Finland warmer than most of Southern Europe. Not to be forgotten is the Pentagon report: A n Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and its Implications for United States National Security. The movie The Day After Tomorrow is being released later next week which will have the effect of making global warming seem like nothing more than an action movie that lasts 2 hours and has the typically happy American ending in spite of the premise for the movie being scary enough to prompt the Pentagon to study worst-case scenarios.

I understand why people don't want to believe in the idea of global warming or dramatic climate change as the consequences are dire, but no amount of optimisim can change the course that nature is on. There has been enough research into past climate changes to support the theory of polar melting initiating a dramatic climate change via gulf stream disruption. It doesn't even need to be dramatic as the very well written, The Little Ice Age: How Climate Made History, 1300-1850, describes. So, go enjoy the nice weather while it's here since all the evidence suggests that there may be few years remaining where we can.

Bush: Global warming is just hot air

Bush: Global warming is just hot air 09/09/2004 11:50 PM
Salon Sep 10 2004 4:00AM GMT

Deciding How Much Global Warming Is Too
Much

Deciding How Much Global Warming Is Too
Much 02/01/2005 09:41 PM
After a decade of cautious circling, some scientists and policy makers are now trying to define "dangerous climate change."

Air travel and global warming

Air travel and global warming 01/22/2004 03:01 AM

Scott Mackinney criticizes me in a comment on my blog about the damage I am causing to the environment with all of my air travel. I actually have been feeling a bit guilty about that and has been wondering where aviation is going to go from here.

On the one hand, in some areas, air travel is becoming cheaper and there are even people talking about small, low-cost private planes becoming more common.

A Feb 2000 GAO report warns that the damage to the environment from the emissions from aviation is particularly high because it is emitted into the upper atmosphere and that increased damage due to increases in travel can not be offset by technological advances. A report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a group of experts affiliated with the UN warned that the share of global warming caused by air traffic could increase from 3.5% in 1992 to 17% in 2050.

We clearly have a problem here. In an IHT article that I can not seem to find a link to, I read that one of the possibilities was to fly lower where there would be more turbulence, but less damage. I've also heard about the idea of levying high taxes for air travel. In any event, the air travel utopia story seems a bit flawed and if we would get up off our asses and really do something about global warming (which we must) one of the first hit probably should be our global aviation habits.

I WAS going to write about this before, but hadn't been able to gather enough sources. (Honest! ;-) ) I still don't think I have enough information to have an educated opinion. Any pointers to more resources would be greatly appreciated.

Global Warming Filtered

Global Warming Filtered 02/05/2005 09:02 PM
Global Warming Links - a compendium of resources.

The Scent of Global Warming

The Scent of Global Warming 06/18/2004 04:08 PM
Wired News Jun 18 2004 8:19PM GMT

UK Releases Global Warming Report

UK Releases Global Warming Report 04/22/2004 12:01 PM

Extinctions Due to Global Warming
Predicted

Extinctions Due to Global Warming
Predicted 01/09/2004 10:12 PM
Slashdot Jan 8 2004 10:24PM ET

Global warming hits UK birds.

Global warming hits UK birds. 07/30/2004 07:34 PM
Global warming hits UK birds. The year without young. Have we hit the bottleneck?

Global Warming Killing Thousands

Global Warming Killing Thousands 12/12/2003 06:49 AM
Climate change, linked by scientists to human emissions of gases such as carbon dioxide from cars and factories, caused 150,000 deaths in 2000, the World Health Organization says, and that number is rising.

CeBIT a time for global warming

CeBIT a time for global warming 04/29/2004 08:31 PM
Sydney Morning Herald Apr 29 2004 11:47PM GMT

"Michael Crichton on global warming"

"Michael Crichton on global warming" 01/04/2004 03:27 PM

Supervillainy: Astroengineering Global
Warming

Supervillainy: Astroengineering Global
Warming 04/08/2005 04:57 AM
Last year in April, at a sf convention here in Canberra, I watched a presentation on global warming by Gregory Benford, supposedly telling us about a global warming summit that he had recently participated in. Anticipating the nature of his audience, he first showed us the summit's deliberately conservative final numbers on temperature rise, carbon dioxide levels etc for the next 26 years, then quickly demolished some popular but flawed solutions with clear logic and straightforward calculation. Then he showed us the solution that he'd presented, amid mixed amusement and excitement, to the distinguished climatologists, meteorologists, physicists, chemists, biologists, political scientists, economists, engineerists, environmentalists and journalists at the summit. As a result of attending Greg's little overhead-projected show, I now believe that the cheapest, most effective and most practical answer to global warming is to think like a supervillain and block out the sun's rays using a giant rotating Space Lens suspended directly in front of the Sun! Muahahaha! Let me tell you why.

Will Global Warming Cool Europe?

Will Global Warming Cool Europe? 12/08/2003 05:49 AM
As the melting Arctic ice cap chills the warm ocean current responsible for Western Europe's mild weather, temperatures could take a sharp dip -- after the continent adapts to being almost tropical.

Nuclear power or global warming

Nuclear power or global warming 05/26/2004 06:10 PM
James Lovelock, the creator of the Gaia t heory, says that only a massive expansion of nuclear power as the world's main energy source can alleviate the effects of global warming. [Via WorldChanging.]

IBM System to Model Global Warming

IBM System to Model Global Warming 02/18/2004 09:24 PM
Researchers at the University of California, Irvine, will use an IBM supercomputer to predict the impact of global warming on Earth up to 300 years into the future.

IBM Supercomputer to Forecast Global
Warming

IBM Supercomputer to Forecast Global
Warming 02/10/2004 11:59 PM
UC Irvine researchers will use an IBM supercomputer to predict the impact of global warming on the Earth up to 300 years into the future.

Global Warming Causes Lower Yields

Global Warming Causes Lower Yields 07/01/2004 05:15 AM
Free Internet Press Jul 1 2004 9:36AM GMT

No Doubts Global Warming Is Real, U.S.
Experts Say

No Doubts Global Warming Is Real, U.S.
Experts Say 12/04/2003 01:16 AM
Reuters via Wired News Dec 4 2003 0:38AM ET

Sir Martin Rees on global warming and
other things

Sir Martin Rees on global warming and
other things 01/25/2004 02:59 AM

I sat next to Sir Martin Rees at dinner last night. He is the Royal Astronomer of the UK and the Master of Trinity College. I met him last year at the same dinner. He's amazingly smart and funny.

Ever since I'd posted my entry on aviation and global warming, I've been trying to figure out how to get to the bottom of this issue. The journalists told me that they just cited experts and the trick was to find good experts. I figured Sir Martin Rees would probably have an educated and balanced view.

Sir Martin Rees told me that he thought it was probably true that global warming was happening and that CO2 emissions contributed to it. He said that his main concern with global warming with the possibility that something non-linear would happen. In other words, his worry was not just the melting of the ice caps or the increased heat, but that this would cause something unpredictable and significant, such as a change in the circulation of the oceans.

He talked about some of the interesting mail he got. He said that he once got contacted by a cryogenic company which wanted his opinion on the idea of "the end of involuntary death" by freezing yourself before you die. When he replied that he'd rather be buried in a cemetery than a freezer in Calfornia, the company posted on their web site that "Rees is a deathist".

In a controversial book that he wrote called "Our Final Hour" he says that there is a 50/50 chance that our civilization will end this century. He mentioned that the original title of the book was "Our Final Century?" The British publishers took out the question mark and made it "Our Final Century". Then the US publishers change it to "Our Final Hour". ;-)

The dinner was off the record. "Nothing leaves this room. Just like Las Vegas." But I received permission from Sir Martin Rees to blog his comments. Sir Martin, if you see this and I've quoted you in error, please let me know. I don't have your email address.

California throws down a global warming
gauntlet

California throws down a global warming
gauntlet 06/28/2004 08:32 AM
The auto industry says California's plan to cut carbon dioxide emissions is illegal and will force consumers to settle for wimpy cars. A major collision between the Golden State and the federal government is looming.

Diesel Soot Seen As Global Warming
Factor

Diesel Soot Seen As Global Warming
Factor 12/22/2003 06:32 PM
San Jose Mercury News Dec 22 2003 5:30PM ET

Global Warming Hurts Rice Yield

Global Warming Hurts Rice Yield 06/29/2004 02:33 AM
CBS News Jun 29 2004 6:17AM GMT

'Boiling Point': Who's to Blame for
Global Warming?

'Boiling Point': Who's to Blame for
Global Warming? 08/15/2004 02:19 AM
Ross Gelbspan is on a mission to correct the failures and misdeeds of politicians, industries, environmentalists and journalists.

Group uses film to oppose global warming

Group uses film to oppose global warming 05/28/2004 09:26 PM
AP via New Jersey Online May 29 2004 1:07AM GMT

Global warming raises stinkbugs
(Reuters)

Global warming raises stinkbugs
(Reuters) 06/18/2004 11:26 AM
Reuters - The discovery of breeding colonies of stinkbugs in London is clear proof that global warming is a fact of life.

Acid rain limits global warming

Acid rain limits global warming 08/03/2004 11:05 AM

Global Warming Ignites Tempers, Even in
a Movie

Global Warming Ignites Tempers, Even in
a Movie 05/12/2004 01:23 AM
Twentieth Century Fox does not seem to have fully anticipated the political firestorm being whipped up by "The Day After Tomorrow," a $125 million movie about global warming.

Scientists Blame Soot for Global Warming

Scientists Blame Soot for Global Warming 12/23/2003 06:12 AM
San Jose Mercury News Dec 23 2003 5:19AM ET

Global Warming (III): The Public
Intellectuals Weigh in

Global Warming (III): The Public
Intellectuals Weigh in 08/27/2004 09:20 PM
The following description of a recent conference on the world's worst ills, featuring several economists who had been awarded the Nobel Prize in economics, enables me to sink global-warming skeptics and academic public intellectuals with only one salvo. "An international panel of economists brought together to rank the world's worst...

Diesel soot seen as global warming
factor

Diesel soot seen as global warming
factor 12/23/2003 03:51 AM
Boston Globe Dec 23 2003 3:18AM ET

Possible solution to global warming:
bury the carbon dioxide

Possible solution to global warming:
bury the carbon dioxide 12/09/2003 12:07 PM
Possible solution to global warming: bury the carbon dioxide.

The State of the Planet: Global warming
timeline prediction

The State of the Planet: Global warming
timeline prediction 02/05/2005 09:27 PM
"As present world temperatures are already 0.7C above the pre-industrial level, the process is well under way... when the temperature...

Telegraph | News | The truth about
global warming - it's the Sun that's to
blame

Telegraph | News | The truth about
global warming - it's the Sun that's to
blame 07/19/2004 09:35 AM
UK Telegraph .. A new study .. here you go

telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2004/07/18/wsun18.xml&s Sheet=/news/2004/07/18/ixnewstop.html
track this site | 6 links

Blair to urge US to take tougher action
on global warming

Blair to urge US to take tougher action
on global warming 09/15/2004 02:16 AM
TONY BLAIR WARNS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN WAKE OF IVAN .. should know better

nzherald.co.nz/storydisplay.cfm?storyID=3591351&thesection=ne ws&thesubsection=world
track this site | 4 links

ONLINE EXTRA: Our readers on global
warming and same-sex marriage

ONLINE EXTRA: Our readers on global
warming and same-sex marriage 02/05/2005 09:10 PM
Canada.com - Sat Feb 5, 10:01 am GMT
Grok Description matches for Global Warming
GrokA matches for Global Warming

"Global Worming"

"Global Worming" 07/28/2004 09:42 PM

Direct and Related Links for '“Global Worming”'

The MyDoom worm certainly kicked the tar out Google the other day. After being nuked with query after query, most of us started getting that annoying Error-27 page instead of the search results that we were hoping for. Google was able to fight back by blocking sources of the infection and made a stand to drive off the MyDoom led attack from their servers….

Worming Into Apple

Worming Into Apple 12/27/2004 06:49 AM
What happens when you work at Apple on a pet project but it is canceled before it ships and you're fired? If you're Ron Avitzur, you ignore reality and finish it anyway by sneaking into work. By Leander Kahney.

Robots Worming Through Your Colon?

Robots Worming Through Your Colon? 06/17/2005 07:12 PM
A team of biologists and engineers at Case Western Reserve University has developed two flexible robotic devices that could make invasive medical procedures such as colonoscopies safer for patients and easier for doctors to administer. The first robotic device creates the locomotion which draws on an understanding of how slugs, leeches and earthworms traverse their environments and grasp objects. The device is constructed of three artificial muscules and looks like a nine-inch long hollow worm. Sequencing the muscles mimicking the undulating movement of slugs and worms propels the device forward. Also, a gripper device has been developed that mimics the way hungry California sea slugs grasp slippery seaweed. The gripper consists of a four-inch, ball-like device, surrounded by muscle-like actuators in the form of tubes or rings where one of the tubes contains a mouth that opens and closes. So how would you like one of these roaming through your colon?

Worming Its Way Back: Sobig Computer Bug
Still Threatens

Worming Its Way Back: Sobig Computer Bug
Still Threatens 12/17/2003 08:27 AM
ABCNEWS.com Dec 17 2003 7:34AM ET

The consequences of cheating

The consequences of cheating 12/03/2003 07:23 PM
That's one reason I can let it go and not Google every paper to death," Neighbors said. "In the end, they've derailed their own learning.". ...

Unintended consequences

Unintended consequences 04/06/2005 07:20 AM
You're full after a lovely La Terrine de Courgettes au Coulis de Tomates Fraîches and a daunting but delicious Le Lapin en Cocotte when the waiter asks if you'd like dessert. Because you're spacing out a bit, and because he's lifting your empty plate, you assume he's asking if you're all finished. So you say, "Oui." Next thing you know you're ordering the tarte Tatin rather than extricate yourself from this unforeseen predicament. Good thing for the dessert compartment in the stomach. Perhaps French lessons are required after all.

The Consequences of Snazzy Hardware

The Consequences of Snazzy Hardware 12/28/2004 09:24 AM

Health Consequences of CRT Monitors?

Health Consequences of CRT Monitors? 04/01/2005 05:25 PM

Anonymity Online and its Consequences

Anonymity Online and its Consequences 02/14/2004 09:09 PM
NY Times: Amazo n Glitch Unmasks War of Reviewers. The weeklong glitch, which Amazon fixed after outed reviewers complained, provided a rare glimpse at how writers and readers are wielding the online reviews as a tool to promote or pan a book — when they think no one is watching. This thought-provoking story is a window into an increasingly relevant problem: how to deal with anonymous speech.

Navigating the law of unintended
consequences

Navigating the law of unintended
consequences 03/17/2005 03:15 AM

The Unintended Consequences Of Skype

The Unintended Consequences Of Skype 03/24/2005 05:19 AM
It appears that the NY Times has finally discovered Skype, but their article does make a few interesting observations concerning not just the purpose of Skype but how it's been used in unexpected ways -- mainly for strangers to call each about just about anything. Calls from foreigners to Americans for the sake of English practice are apparently quite common. There's also a story of people looking for local info for a vacation they were planning. It's always fascinating to see how these sorts of unintended uses become more popular -- but, as the article notes, many are likely to go away as the service gets more and more popular, and the spammers and scammers move in (which is already happening). While I've been skept ical of Skype in the past, the ease of use of the service has won over many. It seems to have really touched a nerve for the ability to build a community. Still, there are plenty of challenges for the company going forward -- and busin ess models may be the biggest.

Unintended Consequences of Using GPL
Fonts

Unintended Consequences of Using GPL
Fonts 04/17/2005 06:51 PM

"likely consequences of Ashcroft's
planned war on porn"

"likely consequences of Ashcroft's
planned war on porn" 04/10/2004 09:49 PM

Shark Tank: Unintended Consequences

Shark Tank: Unintended Consequences 04/11/2005 01:44 PM
Nightly update fails, but somehow no one notifies the CIO, who first hears about it in a meeting with users. He's furious, and announces that from now on, he must be the first to know.

Media, Blogs, Truth and Consequences

Media, Blogs, Truth and Consequences 09/15/2004 03:14 PM

(This is also my colu mn today in the San Jose Mercury News.) I still don't know whether Dan Rather and his colleagues at CBS News' ``60 Minutes'' show got snookered by a memorandum-faking con artist when they reported on documents that raised new questions about President Bush's National Guard duty. As a journalist I hope they didn't, though I suspect they did. And while doubts about the memo's authenticity were first raised on the Internet, some of the self-congratulatory online chest-thumping is overdone. Why? The traditional media would not have ignored the issue. Certainly by now, big newspapers and broadcasters would have been asking deservedly tough questions of a dismayingly recalcitrant CBS. Yet I'm also convinced that the emergent online community known as the ``blogosphere'' -- the world of Weblogs, or blogs -- has played an essential role in this bizarre sequence of events. The major shift, however, is one of perception, less in what happened than its high visibility and velocity. More...

likely consequences of Ashcroft's
planned war on porn

likely consequences of Ashcroft's
planned war on porn 04/09/2004 04:08 PM
Eugene Volokh analyzes this flawed policy .. cannot control pornography .. the post in question .. thought exercise .. pornography

volokh.com/2004_04_04_volokh_archive.html#10813997058576 1138
track this site | 9 links

Shark Tank: Not the consequences he had
in mind

Shark Tank: Not the consequences he had
in mind 04/14/2005 01:15 PM
Pilot fish's boss has had it with techs who string temporary wires across the server room instead of running cable through the ceiling -- and he says if it happens again, there will be consequences.

"Drug War Crimes: The Consequences of
Prohibition"

"Drug War Crimes: The Consequences of
Prohibition" 05/29/2004 08:52 PM

Sorting things out: Classification and
its consequences

Sorting things out: Classification and
its consequences 11/14/2003 11:26 AM

Tobacco Affiliates Wonder about
Consequences of Mass. Case

Tobacco Affiliates Wonder about
Consequences of Mass. Case 11/10/2003 11:11 PM
"...A mystery is brewing in Massachusetts over how state tax collectors learned the identities of residents who bought cigarettes over the Internet."

"consequences of early U.S. blunders in
the occupation of Iraq"

"consequences of early U.S. blunders in
the occupation of Iraq" 08/23/2004 02:43 AM

Truth, Consequences of Kerry's 'Liberal'
Label (washingtonpost.com)

Truth, Consequences of Kerry's 'Liberal'
Label (washingtonpost.com) 07/19/2004 02:58 AM
washingtonpost.com - In 1988, George H.W. Bush warned voters his Democratic opponent represented the "failed liberal policies of the past." Liberal-bashing worked wonders, carrying the elder Bush from a 12-point deficit in polls in early July to a 10-point victory over Michael S. Dukakis on Election Day.

Hollywood's objections to digital
content may have far-reaching
consequences

Hollywood's objections to digital
content may have far-reaching
consequences 04/09/2004 04:13 PM
Another, however, is to extend power and reach into your life in a way that simply was not possible in the days of VHS. Again, I would submit that this is as much about fair use as it was ever about piracy.

Global Sources: Creating and
Facilitating Global Trade

Global Sources: Creating and
Facilitating Global Trade 08/31/2004 06:26 AM
Global Sources: Creating and Facilitating Global Trade
http://www.globalsources.com/

Global Sources offers product and trade information for volume buyers including product search, supplier search and country search. Also available are product alerts, my catalog, sourcing magazines and market intelligence reports. This will be added to International Trade Resources 2004-05 Internet MiniGuide.

Enhanced HRToolbox Helps Companies
Administer Rising Number of Short-Term
Global Assignments. Product Streamlines
Complexity of Global Workforce
Management

Enhanced HRToolbox Helps Companies
Administer Rising Number of Short-Term
Global Assignments. Product Streamlines
Complexity of Global Workforce
Management 04/08/2005 04:55 AM
In response to the growing trend of short-term global assignments, HRToolbox, Inc., has unveiled a newly-enhanced version of its namesake solution that streamlines the entry of common information tracked for short-term assignments. [PRWEB Apr 8, 2005]

Blowback: The Cost And Consequences of
American Empire plus War And Conflict In
The Post-Cold War, Post-9/11 Era

Blowback: The Cost And Consequences of
American Empire plus War And Conflict In
The Post-Cold War, Post-9/11 Era 03/13/2003 10:25 AM
Chalmers Johnson is an provocative proponent of the American Empire theory, indeed. Here are excerpts from his Blow Back: The Cost And Consequences of American Empire

I heard Johnson interviewed on Episode II, War And Conflict In The Post-Cold War, Post-9/11 Era of The Whole Wide World

The Cold War and its central conflict - the physical and ideological battles between the United States, the Soviet Union and their proxy states - imposed a certain logic and consistency on the world. Take that away and add the bloody wars in the Balkans, Africa and the Middle East in the ‘90s as well as the terror attacks and warnings of more recent times and you get a very confused picture of a world at war. Is this breaking storm in Iraq about oil, democracy, freedom, empire, culture, water, diamonds, modernizing Islam or nation building in the Middle East? Some, one or all of these things?

It was an excellent program and well worth your listen, either by RA now or mp3 later. (From listening to the radio)

THE
CONSEQUENCES OF FAILURE: WHAT
ECO-COLLAPSE MIGHT LOOK LIKE

THE
CONSEQUENCES OF FAILURE: WHAT
ECO-COLLAPSE MIGHT LOOK LIKE 07/16/2004 07:06 PM

Several readers have asked me to explain what I have called eco-collapse, the cascading series of catastrophic environmental and cultural failures that most scientists believe will start to occur unless we radically rethink and correct our unsustainable behaviour. Unlike the Club of Rome and the Malthus/Ehrlich population doomsayers, I'm not going to predict that this will happen in our lifetimes (though I think we'll see the early symptoms), nor that a single cause or effect will dominate the collapse. I do think, based on this chart of population and resource consumption, that collapse is likely to occur by the end of this century, and that therefore the great-grandchildren of the baby boom generation will likely bear the brunt of it. If you study history, and specifically the history of overcrowded areas, you can learn the past consequences of the type of conditions that exist already in much of the world today, and get an idea what the elements of eco-collapse will be. In no particular order, and not for the easily depressed, the ten elements are: Catastrophic Famines: Eighty million died of starvation in Mao's China. Despite the surplus of food that exists today, catastrophic famines remain common and are increasing in magnitude with population. Humanitarian efforts may alleviate the small famines of North Africa, but we're not equipped to handle Asian famines resulting from catastrophic crop failures with victims in nine figures, and that's what we can expect in this century. Epidemic Human Diseases: We haven't found a cure for AIDS in a quarter-century of intensive effort, and AIDS is a relatively slow-spreading disease. Plague left half of medieval Europe dead, and smallpox has killed a billion humans. Epidemic diseases are nature's population balancer. Diseases like SARS mutate rapidly, faster than we can isolate and inoculate for them. And BSE (Mad Cow) has now ushered in a whole new family of even harder-to-contain diseases that result from prions. As population density increases, new parasitic diseases always emerge with increasing speed and ferocity. In the incessant battle against disease, nature always bats last. Crop Failures: Five animals and six grains now make up the large majority of human food intake, with fewer varietals of each being produced each year. This creates a hugely vulnerable human food system -- vulnerable to plant and animal diseases (like potato blight) and insect infestations, as well as flooding and drought. We are now drawing down the water table below the soil, and replacing depleted soil with artificial oil-based nutrients, so frighteningly quickly that shortages of groundwater and oil are now even more likely to produce catastrophic crop failures than diseases and infestations. Cannibalism: Watch for the re-emergence of cannibalism in the 21st century. It has been endemic, and even legal, in China for much of its history due to that country's dependence on fragile monoculture, and also occurred in the former USSR in the last century. It will of course get great press, but its real importance is as a harbinger of cultural collapse. Nuclear & Biological War: With North Korea and Iran joining Israel, India, China and Pakistan in the club of nuclear-capable belligerants, it is sheer folly to believe that, as conditions in these areas continue to deteriorate, nuclear weapons won't be used. Even Dubya wants to re-start the arms race with mini-nukes. In the unlikely case that nuclear bombs are not dropped in this century, we can expect factions in at least 60 (and growing) totalitarian states with rudimentary bioweapons capability to start to deploy them. The number of possible users, agents and means of deployment are limitless. The only question will be how many times they will be deployed and whether they will get completely out of control. Water Rationing & Desertification: The massive freshwater needs of 6, 7, 10, 14 billion people are rapidly lowering water tables and depleting all available freshwater resources. At the same time, the Arctic ice, which contains a large proportion of what's left, is melting at an unprecedented rate into saline seas. Deserts are advancing at an increasing rate, especially in tropical areas where exploding population and poor soils quickly turn lush forests into new deserts. Desalination is an expensive and energy-consuming process. Look for massive water rationing, and at least one 'water war' in this century. Economic Depression: Almost all the anti-depression safeguards enacted in the mid-20th century have been done away with in the interest of 'deregulation' and in the belief that 'it could never happen again'. Currency, land, stock and commodity speculators are again buying on huge margin (no money down) at unsustainably low interest rates, manipulating and whipsawing prices and rates and massively inflating the value of securities and real estate. At the same time, market deregulation and 'globalization' have greatly increased interdependence of economies -- one big domino can now topple them all. And trade imbalances, debts and deficits (government, corporate and individual) are at ruinously, irresponsibly high levels, making the entire economic system extremely vulnerable to the twin threats of interest rate spikes and deflation. Not only can it happen again, recent economic policies have made another worldwide economic depression a probability. Catastrophic Terrorism: Technology, combined with the staggering concentration of power and resources, economic interdependence and our dependence on uninterrupted energy flows and grids, work to the terrorist's advantage. A well-planned attack by a small group could easily produce millions in casualties and trillions of dollars in economic losses. The intelligence failure on 9/11 and the incompetent responses since then have ably demonstrated the effectiveness and high likelihood of success of terrorist actions. There is simply no way in our complex society to suppress information about our vulnerabilities to attack or about the technologies that could exploit these vulnerabilities. As desperation and nihilism (expressed very effectively by the number of 'suicide' attacks) grow, so will the probability of catastrophic terrorism. In fact the restraint that the millions, perhaps billions of potential terrorists have demonstrated to date speaks to our basic humanity, our aversion to inflicting suffering on each other. It is in no way a reflection of how 'anti-terrorist' acts have made the world safer -- in fact these acts have made the world immeasurably more dangerous. Cascading Weather Disasters: Scientists warn that global warming brings with it extremes in climate change: heavier and longer floods, devastating hail, severe and recurring drought (and related fires), crippling blizzards and ice storms. So far these increasingly extreme weather patterns have been merely newsworthy. Soon they will start causing major casualties and huge economic losses. The Decline of Democracy, Constitutional Liberalism and the Rule of Law: Israel and Palestine are models of what happens when advocates of escalating war, reprisal and terrorism gain the upper hand. Many of Latin America's ever-fragile democracies are already imperilled, as are some of Eastern Europe's. Totalitarian states tend to spend more on military adventures, and provoke more terrorist acts. And economic and physical hardship tends to destabilize nations politically. Look for the percentage of the world's nations that can fairly be called 'democracies' and 'free' to start declining soon, as well as increasingly common suspension of civil liberties and the 'rule of law' in favour of  'security needs outweigh the need for freedoms' and  'might makes right' politics. The Flashpoints: The frequency of each of these ten elements is likely to increase slowly over the coming decades, amplified by the reality that many of these problems are self-sustaining, and reinforce and precipitate the other elements, in a cascading sequence like we saw in the first half of the 20th century. Throughout history, the main locations of violence and catastrophic loss have usually been those with at least two of (a) high population density, (b) high population growth rate, and (c) high utlilization of limited resources (arable land, energy, water etc.) Three areas to watch, therefore, are the Mideast/South Central Asia area, China, and Latin America. These are all under massive environmental stress already -- horribly polluted and degraded and under huge population and resource stress. Many of the ten elements above will thrive in these areas, so watch for these areas to explode first -- 'the beginning of the end'. The Last Straw: The wild cards in how all of this will play out are human innovation and technology. Remarkable human resourcefulness has made fools of Malthus, Ehrlich and the Club of Rome. I don't believe famine will be our undoing. There is currently a veritable (though highly vulnerable) glut of human food on Earth -- obesity is now commoner and a greater killer of humans than starvation. I think human ingenuity will keep food production high enough that we won't starve before we kill each other off. I also think that we will kill each other off before nature even comes to bat with the devastating consequences of global warming. (So save your money and don't go see the incredibly silly Day After Tomorrow). We have three much greater vulnerabilities: (#2) Diseases, (#5) War and (#8) Terrorism, all of which already fill the daily newspapers, any (or a combination) of which will, I believe, prove to be our undoing rather than the other seven elements. Once the world starts to be pummelled regularly by famines, crop failures, desertification, water scarcity, economic depressions, weather catastrophes, and cultural collapse, we'll be so caught up in physical, social, economic and political turmoil that we may not even see the knockout punch coming -- India/Pakistan nuclear war, a major bioterrorist attack, or emergence of a new superdisease to take the place of Smallpox and the Plague, or some similar rapidly escalating catastrophe that will simply get out of control. There simply won't be time for us to step back from the brink as we did at least twice in the 20th century. Whether this holocaust is nuclear or biological, the result will be what scientists call an Extinction Event -- a sudden drastic change in Earth's absolute biomass and its constituent makeup. There will be a huge drop in human population as well as a similar drop in the populations of all the species that have cast their lot in with us -- the major animals and high-carb grains we eat, plus the pets, rodents, insects, weeds and diseases that feed on or thrive in dense urban and monoculture environments. Whether the rest of life on Earth is better or worse as a result of this Extinction will depend on its direct cause -- if it's a human-specific disease like Smallpox, the rest of the planet's life could recover and thrive quickly, whereas if it's nuclear war or an undifferentiated bioweapon, its impact on the whole ecosystem could be as profound as the meteorite that wiped out the dinosaurs and much of the rest of the planet's species 60 million years ago. Scientists currently seem to believe that the next cycle of life will be dominated by birds and insects -- creatures that can fly above the devastation and cover long distances to find scarce food. Apres nous les dragons. Nature abhors absolutes, and it is unlikely that either humans or our co-dependent life species will be completely wiped out by an Extinction Event. At least not immediately. Depending on the nature and cause of the Event, the human survivors could find themselves with a second chance -- back in an Eden with the opportunity to build a new culture and society that melds a simple hunter-gatherer-gardener economy together with those technologies still relevant in a post-apocalyptic world. Or, if the Event leaves the planet seriously poisoned, we could instead be a marginalized, poorly-adapted, struggling minor part of a new global ecosystem dominated by those species better suited than we to what we have wrought, until evolution brings our wretched history to an ignominious end -- a whimper after the bang.

"Have these people thought through
the consequences of such
resignation?"

"Have these people thought through
the consequences of such
resignation?" 06/14/2004 11:01 PM
nuclearized .. more» .. observes,

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Global Warming

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