Top Athletes May Be Running Into a Tall Hurdle: Themselves
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Old Tall Ships
Old Tall Ships
06/30/2004 11:13 AM
« A mast and sails on a Finnish Tall Ship during a 90 minute tour
around Kruunuvuorenselkä on Helsinki Day. »
On Helsinki Day we got tickets for the Old
Tall Ships Tour on the Inga-Lill. The Brits
and the Dutch seem to titter at the Finnish tall ships since, of
course, theirs are larger and they both had navies of some repute, but
the Finns do like to remind them that without Finnish pine tar their
boats would have sunk in rather short order. The day was as wet as it
could be without it being a full monsoon which made it somewhat
difficult to take pictures, but it was still a treat to ride out into
open water under full sail without the help of an engine.
There is something terribly romantic about these wooden ships in an
age of the giant metal cruise ships which insulate you as much as
possible from the idea that you are on the water. The captain of the
ship did give a reasonably long talk about the history of the tall
ships in Finnish which I hope I have remembered correctly. The
Inga-Lill was built in 1947, after WWII, as a cargo ship to transport
goods around the Baltic and the archipelago. Most of the surviving
tall ships were built around this period since there were a lot of
idle shipwrights in the post-war slump and they needed work. When more
modern cargo ships were developed these boats were left behind but
have been restored to their original beauty in recent years thanks to
enthusiasts and charter cruises. The crew mentioned that the Traditional
Sailing Ships Association welcomes new members, which would be a
really interesting thing to do, but I'm not much of a sailor. There is
a very thorough tall
ships website which has a lot of history and details on boats from
many different countries and also the Maritime Museum of Finland which
covers the history of the tall ships in Finland.
"Tall Buildings"
"Tall Buildings"
07/31/2004 10:19 AMTALL Buildings
TALL Buildings
07/28/2004 11:33 AM
Tal
l Buildings (Flash required)
RUNNING OUT
OF ROOM, RUNNING OUT OF TIME
RUNNING OUT
OF ROOM, RUNNING OUT OF TIME
01/07/2004 01:22 PM

When I was researching the
article One Billion
Americans?,
I got thinking about the implications of the wildly conservative
Census
Bureau projections of US population, and the embarrassing drastic
upward revisions that have been made to them, for global
population projections. What made the US projections so wrong (US
population peaking at 295 million was predicted as recently as fifteen
years ago) was the compound error of underestimating the extent of
immigration and overestimating the rate at which immigrants adjust
their family size to the average of their new country, or the global
average. It's an understandable error -- there's lots of evidence that
population growth rates in the developing world are falling quickly.
But that's not because third
world countries are evolving to two-child-or-less families as infant
mortality drops. Rather, it's because those countries are simply
unable
to sustain more children, so parents are reluctantly, temporarily
reducing family size as a result. Give them the option to emigrate to
a
developed country, and cultural preference, religious dictates, and
improved health care will jump their family size (and life expectancy)
back up again. And as inevitable ecological and humanitarian
catastrophes arise in the 21st century in dozens of third world
countries, compounded by the scourges of new diseases, horrendous
shortages of clean water, and desertification and crop flooding due to
global warming, the pressure to increase immigration quotas by orders
of magnitude will be fierce.
Back in 1990 when the pundits were predicting US population would peak
at 295 million (it passed that level last year and is now expected to
peak at between 550 million and 1.2 billion, if it peaks at all), they
were saying global population would peak at around 9-11 billion in
2100. But for that to happen with a US population of, say, 900 million
instead of 300 million, would mean average third world family size
would be much smaller than average US family size. The UN projections,
for example, assume annual average growth rate for Africa, Asia and
Latin America of 0.5% in the latter half of this century, compared to
a
current growth rate in those areas (even including China with its
already-low birth rate) of 2.1%, and compared to a current US growth
rate of 0.9%, which is trending back up to a projected 1.3% rate for
most of the current century, thanks to immigration.
So the 9-11 billion global peak population just doesn't add up. While
it doesn't make sense to get Malthusian and project population will
grow indefinitely at current rates (1.3%, i.e. a doubling every 50
years to 24 billion by 2100), it's equally illogical and irresponsible
to suggest that the whole world will start immediately radically
reducing its fertility rate to achieve in just two generations the low
fertility rate that Europe took one hundred generations to reach. If
you assume that the levels of immigration now
projected by the US Census Bureau will prevail throughout the
developed
world, that first- and second-generation citizens of developed
countries will continue to have considerably larger-than-replacement
level families in their new adopted countries, that the prevailing
pro-fertility population dogmas of organized world religions will not
suddenly be changed, that population pressure in the third world will
be eased somewhat by immigration and that modest drops in family size
in those countries will be largely offset by longer life expectancy,
as
has been observably the case in almost every third world country
except
China, then instead of the 9-11 billion peak the UN is currently
talking about, you end up with population soaring past 14 billion in
2100, with no end in sight (left chart above).
The curved red line shows the carrying capacity of Earth, assuming a
modest annual increase in productivity from the current 30 billion
acres (productive-capacity adjusted), assuming average footprint per
capita continues to increase by a modest 1% per year, and assuming no
land on the planet is reserved for wilderness or natural space for the
rest of Earth's creatures. It shows in 2000 that the world could
sustain 5 billion humans at the then-prevailing level of consumption.
That's a billion humans less than actually inhabited the planet then,
possible only by depriving much of the world of a subsistence level of
resources, and by taking more from the Earth (in non-renewable
resources) than we replaced, essentially stealing the excess from
future generations. At the expected global level of per-capita
consumption in 2100 (still well below today's North American
consumption levels), carrying capacity drops to 2 billion humans. That
number is substantiated by a recent C
ornell
study that says the choice in 2100 is between 2 billion people living
a
comfortable but not lavish life (achieved by a drastic population
reduction) or 12 billion "struggling in misery". And if you want to
allow 50% of the planet's surface for other life forms, you need to
achieve double that reduction (green line), to one billion people, the
level both Jim
Merkel and Bill
McKibben think we should strive for. That's only achievable, short
of coercion, by an average one child family worldwide for the next century.
The right chart shows that the increasing average footprint, driven
both by North American excess and the surging resource use of China's
billion plus people, will drive the aggregate human footprint up even
more sharply than aggregate population, from 37 billion acres today
(20% more than Earth's carrying capacity) to 210 billion acres in 2100
(six times Earth's carrying capacity). Now remember, these assumptions
are much closer to the wildly
optimistic assumptions of population levelling that the UN and other
global agencies optimistically hope for, than to the Malthusian
no-change projections that would see nearly double these numbers.
Nevertheless, train wreck ahead.
We simply have no choice. We must immediately and aggressively reduce our family
sizes worldwide, and we must
immediately and aggressively reduce per-capita resource consumption,
waste and footprint. That means we must confront religions that don't
actively encourage birth control and small families, and show those
religions to
be socially irresponsible. That means, too, we need to introduce ecological
taxation
measures to make excessive resource consumption and waste
prohibitively
expensive, and reward those who tread lightly on the Earth.
|
Argosy Stands Tall
Argosy Stands Tall
04/27/2004 03:50 PMArgosy's numbers look good despite the brutal Illinois taxes.
He's short on height but tall on issues
He's short on height but tall on issues
11/19/2003 02:05 PM Who wants to
marry a Kucinich? "I think we're in a day in age when
partnerships are imperative to making anything happening in the world.
And I certainly want a dynamic, out-spoken woman who was fearless in
her desire for peace in the world and for universal single-payer
health care and a full employment economy. If you are out there call
me." -- Dennis Kucinich, Nov 5, 2003
With Macintosh's Help 'I' Stands Tall In
Sales
With Macintosh's Help 'I' Stands Tall In
Sales
04/24/2004 11:34 AMLittle leter 'i' is king of marketing among the alphabet. As in iPod,
iTunes, iBook. "Because of consistent marketing, Apple literally own
the letter 'i'. 'I' means Internet and interactive -- and it means
Apple." By Marlon Manuel, Cox News Service (via MyAppleMenu)
Freak Waves Are No Tall Tale
Freak Waves Are No Tall Tale
07/28/2004 06:17 AMStories of giant ship-wrecking waves are no longer just for crusty sea
captains spinning a good yarn. Data from European Space Agency
satellites shows that monster waves do exist -- and they're more
common than expected. By Amit Asaravala.
Great Quake's Wave Not Very Tall
Great Quake's Wave Not Very Tall
03/29/2005 04:30 AMCBS News Mar 29 2005 8:50AM GMT
-- The Museum of Modern Art: Tall
Buildings --
-- The Museum of Modern Art: Tall
Buildings --
07/29/2004 08:07 AM-- The Museum of Modern Art: Tall Buildings
--
moma.org/exhibitions/2004/tallbuildings/index_f.html
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luck has left me standing so tall
luck has left me standing so tall
04/09/2004 04:08 PMThis will probably be my last weblog entry this week, because I'm in
the final few miles of the
Just A Geek rewrite marathon.
'Giant' hurdle
'Giant' hurdle
05/24/2004 06:03 AMCNET Asia May 24 2004 10:25AM GMT
For all you hip-pained athletes
For all you hip-pained athletes
12/19/2004 03:21 PMFrom the American Academy of Family Physicians comes this detailed
publication on Hip Pain in Athletes. While it's obviously written for
medical professionals (ones who recognize words like 'acetabulum' and
'femoral head'), I found it useful in preparing for my trip to the
orthopedic specialist. I've had a nagging pain since before the
marathon, nothing too severe so I just ran through it. Now that I've
been back in NYC and sitting much more than before, the pain's gotten
worse. So I finally broke down and went to the doctor. I've been
laying off the running, except for my races, and hopefully today will
get to the bottom of the issue. I think (hope) it's just inflammation
that will pass with ice, rest, and NSAIDs.
You're Athletes, Not Journalists
You're Athletes, Not Journalists
08/21/2004 05:52 AMOlympians can do media interviews but they'd better not blog. The
International Olympic Committee, interested in protecting lucrative
broadcasting contracts, forbids any activity that might upset the
networks.
Nation Frets That Its Young Are Not Tall
Enough (Reuters)
Nation Frets That Its Young Are Not Tall
Enough (Reuters)
05/07/2004 09:16 AMReuters - Vietnam's greatest living figure, General
Vo Nguyen Giap, is treasured although he stands just five feet
tall, but the communist government is worried that its future
generations won't be tall enough.
Tall Tales and the Unlarded Truth About
Hogzilla
Tall Tales and the Unlarded Truth About
Hogzilla
03/19/2005 02:30 AMFew episodes have drawn the Southern talent for tall tales like the
legend of Hogzilla, the alleged 12-foot, 1,000-pound wild hog shot and
killed last June.
Google scaring investors with tall price
Google scaring investors with tall price
07/30/2004 06:51 AMChron.com - Fri Jul 30, 07:28 am GMT
Eight-foot-tall statues of Cthulhu for
sale
Eight-foot-tall statues of Cthulhu for
sale
08/23/2004 10:31 AMCory Doctorow:

For $3900, you can buy this 7'8", 200 lb statue of Cthulhu for your
garden or dungeon. Lots of other outsized nerd-pleasing statuary and
sculpture also for sale on the Nethercraft site.
Link
(
Thanks, Ryan!)
Giant Squid, Tall Tales and Truth
Giant Squid, Tall Tales and Truth
05/03/2004 07:26 PMWith a length up to 75 feet, the giant squid, Architeuthis, is the
largest invertebrate on earth. But it's also the most elusive.
James Bond is too tall to be a modern
spy (Reuters)
James Bond is too tall to be a modern
spy (Reuters)
03/08/2004 11:25 PMReuters - James Bond, Britain's most famous fictional secret agent,
would be feeling rather shaken and stirred to
learn he would be too tall to be a real modern day spy in the
country's domestic spy agency.
tall buildings shake voices escape
tall buildings shake voices escape
03/14/2005 05:42 PMAround 8:57 last night, I had a brief flash of panic: What if they cut
my part down? I'm going...
Google yet to clear SEC hurdle
Google yet to clear SEC hurdle
08/17/2004 07:22 PMFederal regulators don't give the company the OK to proceed, extending
the wait for its highly anticipated IPO.
Oracle's New PeopleSoft Hurdle: DoJ
Oracle's New PeopleSoft Hurdle: DoJ
07/01/2004 03:50 PMInternet News Jul 1 2004 8:01PM GMT
Google clears IPO hurdle
Google clears IPO hurdle
01/27/2004 07:31 PMNEW YORK (Reuters) - Google, the No. 1 Web search engine, has moved
closer to an initial public offering, as a company-paid audit ...
Veritas' Hurdle Too Steep
Veritas' Hurdle Too Steep
01/29/2004 01:59 PMTheStreet.com Jan 29 2004 5:48PM GMT
Athletes to get armed guard
Athletes to get armed guard
05/02/2004 04:37 AMEvery British competitor at the Athens Olympics will be given a
24-hour armed guard.
The ultimate MP3 player for athletes?
Could be
The ultimate MP3 player for athletes?
Could be
05/13/2004 09:16 PMZDNet May 14 2004 1:06AM GMT
Tall French Visitor Takes Up Residence
in the Guggenheim
Tall French Visitor Takes Up Residence
in the Guggenheim
03/24/2005 07:53 PMDaniel Buren's installation at the Guggenheim Museum is a spectacular
folly, a lumberingly chilly and theatrical construction, mirrored
floor to ceiling.
A Tall Decaf, Mocha Cappuccino and the
Wi-Fi Selection of the Month, Please
A Tall Decaf, Mocha Cappuccino and the
Wi-Fi Selection of the Month, Please
12/08/2003 02:21 AMNew York Times Dec 8 2003 1:46AM ET
Tall Californians come up short in
airline lawsuit (Reuters)
Tall Californians come up short in
airline lawsuit (Reuters)
03/06/2004 02:00 AMReuters - Tall people will have to go on feeling a bit cramped while
riding on airplanes.
Short Film Has Tall Implications (Los
Angeles Times)
Short Film Has Tall Implications (Los
Angeles Times)
02/19/2004 06:41 AMLos Angeles Times - As Hollywood's most celebrated night draws near, a
small Oscar-nominated animated film is assuming big symbolism in the
feud between Walt Disney Co. Chairman Michael Eisner and former board
member Roy E. Disney.
"Tall, white" Bolivian beauty in trouble
(Reuters)
"Tall, white" Bolivian beauty in trouble
(Reuters)
05/28/2004 09:31 PMReuters - Bolivia's entrant in next week's Miss Universe contest faces
calls to quit after she described herself as being a
tall, white woman and not a short Indian peasant.
Latest Red Hat clears security hurdle
Latest Red Hat clears security hurdle
05/02/2004 12:14 AMLaptop Initiative Faces Hurdle
Laptop Initiative Faces Hurdle
06/10/2004 08:49 PMEducators and school officials in Berkshire County are waiting with
cautious optimism to hear whether a proposed laptop initiative in
North Adams and Pittsfield will clear a key legislative hurdle.
By Erik Arvidson, North Adams Transcript (via MyAppleMenu)
Clearing Low Hurdle, Dell Rallies
Clearing Low Hurdle, Dell Rallies
02/13/2004 11:58 AMTheStreet.com Feb 13 2004 3:44PM GMT
WS-I Clears Basic Security Hurdle
WS-I Clears Basic Security Hurdle
05/18/2004 07:24 AMWorking group moves closer to making Web services security a
crucial assurance for commercial businesses.
Getting over the final hurdle for
broadband Britain: LLU
Getting over the final hurdle for
broadband Britain: LLU
09/01/2004 01:16 PMnewmediazero Sep 1 2004 5:14PM GMT
Alitalia deal crosses last hurdle
Alitalia deal crosses last hurdle
09/18/2004 01:59 AMThe Italian carrier reaches agreement on cutting cabin crews, the
final part of a rescue plan vital for survival.
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