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Osama in the booth







Osama in the booth

Osama in the booth 08/13/2004 12:11 AM

Over on the right side of the fence, we're hearing plenty of voices arguing that al-Qaida wants to see George Bush defeated. From where I sit, it seems equally or more likely that bin Laden and company would love to see Bush re-elected (he's been their best recruiting agent, in Iraq and elsewhere).

But really, to speculate on this subject either way is to go down a rathole. Who cares which candidate al-Qaida might favor? Osama doesn't vote. All that matters is, which candidate will best protect the American people, bolster the American economy, and help build a safer and more peaceful world for our kids?

But the prospect of an October surprise now looms scarily over the electoral landscape. And the most important thing we can do is to inoculate ourselves in advance against it.

The nightmare scenario goes something like this: Sometime in October, al-Qaida strikes inside the U.S. Either (a) Americans rally behind the president, even though the occasion of a second attack might cause us to feel the administration had failed us; or (b) though there might well have been little any president could do to stop the attack, many Americans blame Bush -- and that evokes a patriotic chorus of rally-round-the-prez from our leaders and our media, with sanctimonious cries of "Remember Madrid!"

It barely matters, then, whether the reaction goes for or against Bush. Either way -- if we accept, as U.S. intelligence reports, that "influencing the elections" is an al-Qaida goal -- the result will be an al-Qaida success. Unless we're somehow able, ahead of the fact, to draw some lines in the rhetorical sand.

The "influencing elections" debate began in earnest in March, when the Madrid attacks and subsequent fall of Bush ally Jose Maria Aznar's government led American conservatives to complain that Spain's voters had capitulated to al-Qaida in a shameful act of cowardice. Never mind that the overwhelming majority of Spanish voters had long opposed their government's policy of supporting the Iraq war; never mind that the last-minute swing against the incumbent government was sparked by disgust at the spin games it played in the immediate aftermath of the attack (when it tried to pin the blame on Basque terrorists). Details, details!

There was and is a blunt agenda at work in this gross distortion of the record: the party of Cheney and Rove is laying the groundwork to argue that, in the wake of an al-Qaida attack, it is our patriotic duty to vote for Bush. Otherwise, you know, the terrorists have won.

In a better world, the right thing to do here would be for Republicans and Democrats to agree, in advance, that neither side will attempt to make political hay out of circumstances surrounding another terrorist attack on the U.S. before the election.

I can't help thinking, though, that such a move would really be unilateral disarmament on the Democratic side -- because the Bush administration has broken every promise it has ever made about not turning terrorism into a political football. Since the war on terror is the only issue on which polls show Bush with any remaining appeal to the American public, it has become the administration's political cornerstone. And it is being micromanaged for Bush's personal political advantage.

Here's Tom Ridge, touting the glories of the president's policies out of one side of his mouth and insisting that his Homeland Security Department "doesn't do politics" out of the other! When all accounts suggest that it was an oversensitivity to political winds that led our intelligence astray in the Iraqi weapons-of-mass-destruction fiasco, here's the new choice to head the CIA -- a partisan GOP bulldog! And don't you Democrats dare oppose him, or we'll hang you by your obstructionist thumbs!

No, I don't think it's possible, given these players, to steer the debate onto the high road and keep it there. Instead, we'd all better keep on high alert between now and Nov. 2 -- not only for possible attacks, which remain a true danger, but for the outrageous distortions of the American political process that could result from them.

Of course, we can be thankful for little things: At least the trial balloon of p ostponing elections in the event of a terror attack seems to have been definitively exploded.




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Spain has been in the news lately, both for her Muslim guests who bombed the trains of Madrid (killing more than 200 people) and her citizens who voted for a new pro-appeasement government.  U.S. media are expressing shock that the instinctive reaction of Christian Europeans was to cave in to the demands of a violent minority.  Sitting here in a country where any attack is met by voters rallying around the government and pressing for a strong counterattack the European propensity toward appeasement seems odd.

But is there anything truly new here?  Even the mere threat of Islamic terrorism has for several decades been very effective at steering European nations' foreign policy. Going back further consider the Germans in the 1930s and early 1940s.  A small minority of people living in Europe had an ideology and the will to use violence to back up that ideology.  Without a whole lot of effort or actual force they were able to conquer nearly every other European nation and convince those Europeans to accept major elements of their ideology.  European democracies appear strong but apparently are easy to control by anyone who threatens to disrupt the bourgeois comforts of the populace.  Nor do Europeans have the internal strength to dislodge violent minorities who've gained control of their societies.  In the 1940s it was the leveling of German cities by the British and American air forces and Soviet artillery that convinced Europeans of the impracticality of Naziism.

It would be tempting to attribute the cravenness of the average European to the climate or their proximity to Muslim countries.  Yet the English have been stubbornly resistant to both the Nazis and various Islamic threats despite being geographically proximate to Europe and hosting a large Muslim minority within their borders.

Even if we can be sure of the answer to what the average European would call Osama bin-Laden ("Sir") we'll probably never figure out any way to stiffen the backbone of the average Christian European.  The political scientist quoted in this blog on August 28, 2003 was perhaps correct in his prediction that France and other European nations would become Muslim dictatorships within the next generation's lifetimes, partly through demographics and birthrate but mostly because the non-Muslim majority lacked the will to oppose a unified minority.


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