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Is the bubble coming back? It sure looks like it







Is the bubble coming back? It sure looks
like it

Is the bubble coming back? It sure looks
like it
07/29/2004 03:24 AM

The first sign was the $13 million investment in Friendster, a company with millions of eyeballs but no visible business model or profits, led by my old investors Kleiner Perkins and Benchmark. Then came the hype and frenzy over the Google IPO, which is reportedly going to value Google at something like $36 billion. Then I read earlier this week about all the cash trying to get into VC funds, at the same time that research shows: The optimal fund size, Professor Kedrosky and others say, is a $250 million fund managed by four partners. "There's 25 years of data that shows that funds roughly this size give the best returns, but it's like everyone went temporarily nuts for a while," he said. The smaller the fund, Professor Kedrosky said, the more a firm's partners can focus on individual companies, which often rely on venture capitalists as much for advice and help as for cash infusions..... Sequoia... ended up saying yes to only 82 of the 400-plus institutional investors who sought to give it money this time, turning away around $2.5 billion in potential investments, according to Mr. Romanello of Thomson It certainly seems like there is a lot of money chasing a lot fewer good ideas. Not a good sign. Plus, the Bay Area housing market has gone insane, and traffic is starting to get bad again. There are lots of signs that we are headed towards another period of irrational exuberance. I just hope the slope up is flatter, so that the slope down will be as well. I also wonder what, if anything, the Valley learned from the bust?...




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And, a recent buying frenzy of Chinese dot-coms and the speculation surrounding the IPO ambitions of Internet search engine Google and wireless operator ...

I totally agree with Om - Yahoo is
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OK - from my own experiences and POV I can say this:

- Media RSS is the leadership we need in media, subscribing and the web. That's what podcasting needs. We're gonna support it in ourmedia.org and we hope others will too.

- Russell Beattie has been helping out in an organization now called Mobile Monday. He brings clear leadership in mobile to Yahoo - just by his sheer presence.

- Jeremy Zawodny is one of those bloggers who groks it all, has a great day job and smirks his way all the way to the A-list. The best part is that he's got a viewpoint that Yahoo is starting to listen to.

- Then came a Terry Semel quote: "sure we'll make a lot of money off of Hollywood, but we'll make more money off of end-users content."

So I'm digging more on Yahoo every day. I've been using MyYahoo since the 2nd month it was available. We'll always make sure that Yahoo data will flow through OUR Digital Lifdestyle Aggregators (DLAs) - as long as they allow the data to flow. It would be nice to have APIs to ALL the stuff - BTW dudes......

And just the notion of Stewart, Caterina and Ben roaming the hallways of Yahoo brings a smile to my lips like an acid trip multi-player rave insider's game meets astro-boy right next door to Lockheed kind of scene.

So right on t o Om - once again - he's rocking the house and telling it like it is......


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At Internet Access?


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HEEEE'S
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HEEEE'S
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no dell Apologies for my unannounced silence since last Saturday. The power supply on my Dell failed, draining the battery so I couldn't even back up my files to another computer. I just got it back now. More on this spectacular failure next week. This week has given me the chance to work on my novel, The Only Life We Know, and my book Natural Enterprise, as well as a chance to catch my breath and think about (a) what to blog about next, and (b) what to do with myself once the three books are finished.

Here are some of the things I'm planning on blogging about in the next few weeks. If there's anything else you'd like me to write about, let me know.
  • The Consequences of Failure: What Eco-Collapse Will Look Like (coming up later today)
  • Book Review - The Wisdom of Crowds
  • Why We Should Set Higher Standards for Everything
  • How to Save the World Reading List - Updated and Annotated
  • Book Review - Bird by Bird
  • Self-Selecting Communities: How We Might Build Some
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  • Natural Enterprise Chapter 7: Organic Financing
  • My Favourite Canadian Francophone Blogs / Mes Blogs Canadiens-Francais Favoris
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Lots of thought-provoking stuff, so stick around.


Distance Doctoring, Distance Nursing And
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Distance Doctoring, Distance Nursing And
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The internet makes it easier to communicate with people over large distances, and for years we've been hearing about the power of "distance" everything. More recently, some of that talk had died down after the early promises of distance learning/doctoring/whatever failed to live up to its early hype. However, it appears that the distance concept is coming back into fashion. One after the other, we just came across three such stories. First, is the news of a hospital in Michigan that is using a robot with a video screen for a head to let remote doctors talk to and examine patients. The doctor's can control the robot from another location (such as home) in order to look over a patient without being there in person. Of course, the idea isn't to replace the need for the doctor to be present, but to make it easier in situations when the doctor is away and is needed quickly (such as to look over something in the middle of the night when they're home). Meanwhile, over in the Netherlands, it's not the doctors who get to stay home, but the patients, who can now use a webc am system to communicate with nurses. The idea is to help out the elderly who are confined to their homes but can't afford to have a healthcare worker visiting them on a regular basis. Meanwhile, outside of the healthcare field it appears that even e-learning is making a comeback, as companies are using it more strategically, to help keep employees up-to-date and trained - but not relying on it as a full replacement for training programs. No matter what, it looks like another bunch of concepts discredited during the boom and bust years are now making a comeback.

One more bubble, please.


One more bubble, please. 04/29/2004 02:42 PM
Word on the street is google has filled for an IPO. Hot Damn!

Pop Goes the Bubble


Pop Goes the Bubble 06/02/2004 08:03 PM
Is a Market Disaster Immement? The Federal Reserve has confirmed [a] Stock Market Crash forecast by raising the Money Supply (M-3) by crisis proportions, up another 46.8 billion this past week. What awful calamity do they see? Something is up. This is unprecedented, unheard-of pre-catastrophe M-3 expansion. M-3 is up an amount that we've never seen before without a crisis

UBL bubble


UBL bubble 01/04/2005 01:39 PM
Tim Bray points to a presentation by Brian Nielsen and Mikkel Hippe Brun on how Denmark is adopting the OASIS Universal Business Language (UBL). Tim writes: Check out slides 4 & 5: they estimate the annual savings achievable from invoicing in UBL at somewhere between €100M and €160M. I may be out of step with the crowd but it seems painfully obvious to me that UBL is going to be huge and I don’t understand why more technology vendors (including my employer) aren’t refocusing their e-business strategy around it....

The New Stock Bubble


The New Stock Bubble 04/13/2004 09:56 AM

Here we go again: Stocks in unknown and untested tech and biotech companies -- and supposed nanotech (my favorite new bubble category) --are soaring. Price to earnings? Surely you're kidding about the earnings part. The market is frothy again. Even solid companies are selling way above historical P/E ratios. Be wary. You think Wall Street has totally cleaned up its act? Get real. These guys are incorrigible. If you're going to jump in again, you should at least be double-sure that your broker's corporate parent isn't getting millions in fees from companies it's pushing at retail. Of course, they're probably working on some new way to con you. Meanwhile, I've had lots of e-mails recently touting micro-capitalized companies founded in in places like Nevada, headquartered in places like the Cayman Islands and claiming big plans to make a huge score in, say, China. Oh, sure, those have to be solid enterprises. I'm sympathetic to most scam victims. But anyone who buys a stock based on an unsolicited e-mail recommendation, or who even looks at such a thing with any intention other than derisive laughter, is an idiot who should not complain after losing his money. Period.


"Leaks in the Wi-Fi Bubble"


"Leaks in the Wi-Fi Bubble" 11/17/2003 03:01 PM
The San Jose Business Journal looks at cut backs at Trapeze and Vivato, referring to the setbacks as "leaks in the Wi-Fi bubble": The story also looks at Cometa's scaled down ambitions and is the fist place I've seen a Cometa spokesperson note that the company's original plans were overly optimistic. Cometa has gotten some flack for delivering on a slower pace but not admitting that its plans had changed. The story also notes that Vivato has 40 customers, which is more than I thought. I think the piece unfairly picks on Trapeze for requiring customers to use its proprietary APs--all the WLAN switch vendors require customers to use their APs. Otherwise they couldn't offer all their whiz-bang features. But ultimately those whiz-bang features may not be worth it for customers who don't want to replace existing APs or who don't like to feel forced to buy only a certain AP. I keep reading about increasing sales at companies like Bluesocket and Reefedge which both offer beefed-up security solutions to customers regardless of the APs they use....

Ready for the Next Bubble?


Ready for the Next Bubble? 04/28/2004 01:10 PM
What does it mean for the economy if the housing bubble bursts?

Bubble Trouble 1.0.2


Bubble Trouble 1.0.2 02/12/2004 05:00 PM
Give that cranky crab from “The Little Mermaid” a run for his money.

Five Years After the Bubble


Five Years After the Bubble 04/15/2005 11:58 AM
F ive Years After the Bubble is a collection of ten links from the perspective of those who were neck deep in the whole thing. I found the link while reading up on Andy Kessler, who had an interesting piece in today's WSJ, and is giving away his new book.

Is China the Next Bubble?


Is China the Next Bubble? 01/18/2004 06:03 PM
Recent excesses suggest that China may be in a bubble now, especially on the investment side of the economy.

Bubble Snooker 1.0


Bubble Snooker 1.0 05/14/2004 04:49 PM
A game that combines the best features of Bubble Shooter, Pool, and Arcanoid.

Is There An Online Ad Bubble?


Is There An Online Ad Bubble? 04/15/2005 04:49 AM
Back in the mid-90s, during the original internet bubble, just about every consumer business plan (that wasn't about e-commerce) was about online advertising. Everyone was focused on getting eyeballs and making their sites "sticky" for advertisers. However, the bottom fell out of that market when the bubble popped -- and people realized that online ads weren't that effective. So, now that everyone's focused on online ads, some are beginning to wonder if th is is a bubble that will pop as well. There certainly are a few differences this time around. First off, more (and bigger) advertisers are willing (and eager) to jump online -- especially as other advertising, such as television, is having problems. Second (and perhaps more importantly) the technology for targeting ads has gotten much, much better, thanks in large part to the paid search world. However, those who are relying solely on internet advertising for revenue would be silly to assume that the cyclical nature of the advertising world won't come back to bite at some point again. The media business is a very tough business, and just because the internet is the hot spot for advertising these days, it doesn't mean that will last.

The Bubble About to Burst


The Bubble About to Burst 04/09/2004 04:02 PM
If you haven't refinanced your home yet (we've refinanced twice in the past two years), you're running out of time:...

Frozen Bubble 1.0.0a


Frozen Bubble 1.0.0a 11/06/2003 05:02 PM
Match similarly colored bubbles to win.
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