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Unravelling Nortel's numbers tangle







Unravelling Nortel's numbers tangle

Unravelling Nortel's numbers tangle 04/29/2004 09:02 AM

globetechnology.com Apr 29 2004 1:17PM GMT




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Unravelling Nortel's numbers tangle

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Yesterday, I posted a note from Stephen Roach, the Wall Street Economist from Morgan Stanley (he gets paid millions for being right, not for being political).  He states that we are 8 m jobs behind where we should be right now with an average recovery (which started in late 2001). How can that number be true?  The easiest way to see what is really going on is to look at the absolute numbers of jobs or economy has created rather than fudgy stats about who is looking for work.

Brad DeLong has an excellent graph that shows in absolute terms how many jobs our economy supported over the last four years.  Note that the peak was at the end of 2001.  Since then, we have lost 2.2 m jobs.  In that same time period, the number of new entrants to the job market has grown, due to normal population growth, at nearly 200,000 per month (or 7.2 m workers over the last three years).  Combined, that's a net deficit of 9.4 m jobs to stay even with our employment rate at the end of 2001. 

So, given these numbers, 8 m new jobs to isn't a typo.  So, why the difference between these numbers (generated by an establishment survey that covers 1/3 of all workers) and the unemployment numbers?  Unemployment statistics are generated through a household survey that asks people about their job status and whether they are looking for work.  The household survey only asks this question of 0.006% of all US households.  This sounds about as useful as presidential poll. 

FWIW, our economy has even lost jobs since the start of the recovery.  This isn't a usual pattern.  Something more is at work.  Global job arbitrage,& nbsp;enabled in large part by the Internet, may be the culprit.

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Numbers station : A post over at Boing Boing reminded me of the phenomenon of numbers stations.

Numbers stations are shortwave radio stations of uncertain origin that broadcast streams of numbers, words, or phonetic sounds. No one knows for sure where their signals originate or what purpose they serve. The voices that can be heard on these stations are often those of children, or are mechanically generated.

Numbers stations appear and disappear continuously, although some stick to regular schedules. It has been speculated that these stations operate as a simple and foolproof method for government agencies to communicate with spies "in the field", using the transmitted codes as a one-time pad cryptosystem.

The geek factor is off the charts, here. I first learned about these wonders of mystery in a great book called "Big Secrets" by Willian Poundstone. If things like this intrigue you, that book is totally worth reading.

As for the stations themselves, I'm pretty sure they're a distributed, stegano graphic cr ypto key based on the Voynich manusript by some spies hiding out in SubTropli s (with a sects in Aquapoli s and the Iron Mountain complex, of course) perfecting their anti-rocket laser cannons and spy satellites. They get around in their personal submarines, defending their bases with Metal Storm cannons from enemy spies attacking in Surface Orbiters.

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Low Numbers, New Problem


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